COVID-19 : nothing is normal in this pandemic

Funding: This work was partially support by CEAUL (funded by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UIDB/00006/2020).This manuscript brings attention to inaccurate epidemiological concepts that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In social media and scientific journals, some wrong references were given to a "normal epidemic curve" and also to a "log-normal curve/distribution". For many years, textbooks and courses of reputable institutions and scientific journals have disseminated misleading concepts. For example, calling histogram to plots of epidemic curves or using epidemic data to introduce the concept of a Gaussian distribution, ignoring its temporal indexing. Although an epidemic curve may look like a Gaussian curve and be eventually modelled by a Gauss function, it is not a normal distribution or a log-normal, as some authors claim. A pandemic produces highly-complex data and to tackle it effectively statistical and mathematical modelling need to go beyond the "one-size-fits-all solution". Classical textbooks need to be updated since pandemics happen and epidemiology needs to provide reliable information to policy recommendations and actions.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Contribution for new genetic markers of rheumatoid arthritis activity and severity : sequencing of the tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene promoter

© 2007 Fonseca et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly citedThe objective of this study was to assess whether clinical measures of rheumatoid arthritis activity and severity were influenced by tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) promoter genotype/haplotype markers. Each patient's disease activity was assessed by the disease activity score using 28 joint counts (DAS28) and functional capacity by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score. Systemic manifestations, radiological damage evaluated by the Sharp/van der Heijde (SvdH) score, disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug use, joint surgeries, and work disability were also assessed. The promoter region of the TNF-alpha gene, between nucleotides -1,318 and +49, was sequenced using an automated platform. Five hundred fifty-four patients were evaluated and genotyped for 10 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, but 5 of these markers were excluded due to failure to fall within Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or to monomorphism. Patients with more than 10 years of disease duration (DD) presented significant associations between the -857 SNP and systemic manifestations, as well as joint surgeries. Associations were also found between the -308 SNP and work disability in patients with more than 2 years of DD and radiological damage in patients with less than 10 years of DD. A borderline effect was found between the -238 SNP and HAQ score and radiological damage in patients with 2 to 10 years of DD. An association was also found between haplotypes and the SvdH score for those with more than 10 years of DD. An association was found between some TNF-alpha promoter SNPs and systemic manifestations, radiological progression, HAQ score, work disability, and joint surgeries, particularly in some classes of DD and between haplotypes and radiological progression for those with more than 10 years of DD.This work was supported by grant POCTI/SAU-ESP/59111/2004 from Fundação Ciência e Tecnologia.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Estimated distribution of the Sharp/van der Heijde (SvdH) score according to the duration of the disease (DD)

<p><b>Copyright information:</b></p><p>Taken from "Contribution for new genetic markers of rheumatoid arthritis activity and severity: sequencing of the tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene promoter"</p><p>http://arthritis-research.com/content/9/2/R37</p><p>Arthritis Research & Therapy 2007;9(2):R37-R37.</p><p>Published online 4 Apr 2007</p><p>PMCID:PMC1906815.</p><p></p