Métodos de reducción de escala : aplicaciones al tiempo, clima, variabilidad climática y cambio climático

Los Modelos de Circulación General Atmosféricos-Oceánicos Acoplados muestran buena habilidad para simular la evolución de las circulaciones de escala global. Sin embargo, esta bondad no es muy útil para el estudio de impactos locales debido a que la resolución espacial de esos modelos está por encima de la escala de los impactos locales que se desean analizar. Es importante tomar esto en cuenta al estudiar impactos del clima en las actividades del hombre, en la biodiversidad, en ambientes marino-costeros y en arrecifes en las regiones tropicales, por ejemplo. Existen dos aproximaciones para lidiar con esta diferencia de escala e información: los métodos de reducción de escala dinámica y estadística. En este trabajo, se discuten los elementos básicos del sistema climático y las posibles causas de los cambios atmosféricos observados en este sistema. Se discuten brevemente los principales conceptos físicos del sistema climático, el clima de una región, la variabilidad climática y las generalidades del problema del cambio climático global con énfasis en el aspecto regional del mismo. Se describen también los esquemas metodológicos del proceso de reducción de escala y se presenta una discusión sobre sus ventajas y limitaciones, así como algunas aplicaciones al tiempo atmosférico y clima regional.Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models demonstrate good skill in simulating large scale circulations. However this output is not very useful to study local impacts, as its spatial resolution is courser than the scale of local impacts. It is very important to consider this issue when studying, for instance, climate impacts on human activities, coastal-marine biodiversity and tropical coral reefs. In general terms, there have been two different approaches to deal with this scale and information difference: the dynamic and the statistic downscaling methods. In this work, the basic climate elements are presented and the possible physical causes of atmospheric changes are discussed. Also, a summary of the main physical concepts that define the climate system as well as the climate and climate variability of a region with respect to the mean atmospheric state and the general aspects of the problem of climate change with emphasis on regional scales, is presented. In addition, this study describes the methodological schemes of the downscaling process and presents a discussion of downscaling advantages and disadvantages, while providing applications for regional weather and climate as well as for socio-economic benefits in coastal, agricultural and tourism activities, among others

Métodos de reducción de escala: aplicaciones al tiempo, clima, variabilidad climática y cambio climático

Los Modelos de Circulación General Atmosféricos-Oceánicos Acoplados muestran buena habilidad para simular la evolución de las circulaciones de escala global. Sin embargo, esta bondad no es muy útil para el estudio de impactos locales debido a que la resolución espacial de esos modelos está por encima de la escala de los impactos locales que se desean analizar. Es importante tomar esto en cuenta al estudiar impactos del clima en las actividades del hombre, en la biodiversidad, en ambientes marino-costeros y en arrecifes en las regiones tropicales, por ejemplo. Existen dos aproximaciones para lidiar con esta diferencia de escala e información: los métodos de reducción de escala dinámica y estadística. En este trabajo, se discuten los elementos básicos del sistema climático y las posibles causas de los cambios atmosféricos observados en este sistema. Se discuten brevemente los principales conceptos físicos del sistema climático, el clima de una región, la variabilidad climática y las generalidades del problema del cambio climático global con énfasis en el aspecto regional del mismo. Se describen también los esquemas metodológicos del proceso de reducción de escala y se presenta una discusión sobre sus ventajas y limitaciones, así como algunas aplicaciones al tiempo atmosférico y clima regional.Reducción dinámica de escala, reducción estadística de escala, clima, variabilidad climática, cambio climático

Métodos de reducción de escala : aplicaciones al tiempo, clima, variabilidad climática y cambio climático

Los Modelos de Circulación General Atmosféricos-Oceánicos Acoplados muestran buena habilidad para simular la evolución de las circulaciones de escala global. Sin embargo, esta bondad no es muy útil para el estudio de impactos locales debido a que la resolución espacial de esos modelos está por encima de la escala de los impactos locales que se desean analizar. Es importante tomar esto en cuenta al estudiar impactos del clima en las actividades del hombre, en la biodiversidad, en ambientes marino-costeros y en arrecifes en las regiones tropicales, por ejemplo. Existen dos aproximaciones para lidiar con esta diferencia de escala e información: los métodos de reducción de escala dinámica y estadística. En este trabajo, se discuten los elementos básicos del sistema climático y las posibles causas de los cambios atmosféricos observados en este sistema. Se discuten brevemente los principales conceptos físicos del sistema climático, el clima de una región, la variabilidad climática y las generalidades del problema del cambio climático global con énfasis en el aspecto regional del mismo. Se describen también los esquemas metodológicos del proceso de reducción de escala y se presenta una discusión sobre sus ventajas y limitaciones, así como algunas aplicaciones al tiempo atmosférico y clima regional.Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models demonstrate good skill in simulating large scale circulations. However this output is not very useful to study local impacts, as its spatial resolution is courser than the scale of local impacts. It is very important to consider this issue when studying, for instance, climate impacts on human activities, coastal-marine biodiversity and tropical coral reefs. In general terms, there have been two different approaches to deal with this scale and information difference: the dynamic and the statistic downscaling methods. In this work, the basic climate elements are presented and the possible physical causes of atmospheric changes are discussed. Also, a summary of the main physical concepts that define the climate system as well as the climate and climate variability of a region with respect to the mean atmospheric state and the general aspects of the problem of climate change with emphasis on regional scales, is presented. In addition, this study describes the methodological schemes of the downscaling process and presents a discussion of downscaling advantages and disadvantages, while providing applications for regional weather and climate as well as for socio-economic benefits in coastal, agricultural and tourism activities, among others

Ingeniera de Tiempo Real en el Dise~no de un Sistema de Supervision y Control para Redes de Energa Ele tri a

Este traba jo aborda la problemati a de integra ion de los requisitos de tiempo real en el dise~no de un sistema de supervision y ontrol (SCADA) apli ado alse tor ele tri o. El esfuerzo subya ente se ha orientado a la busqueda y apli a- ion de las te ni as mas apropiadas de la ingeniera de tiempo real, que permitanprede ir matemati amente la respuesta del sistema ante diferentes situa iones de arga de pro esamiento durante los estados de a tividad rti a. Como resultados substan iales se han obtenido: la espe ializa ion de un pro eso de desarrollogeneri o, RUP (Rational Unied Pro ess), enfo andolo a sistemas de tiempo real;una arquite tura SCADA abierta soportada en estandares IEEE e IEC y modelada on UML (Unied Modeling Language); y un onjunto de re omenda ionesde implementa ion, obtenidas a partir del analisis del omportamiento en tiemporeal on RMA (Rate Monotoni Analysis) y la plataforma MAST (Modeling andAnalysis Suite for real-Time appli ations)

COMPARACIÓN DE CUATRO INSTRUMENTOS UTILIZADOS EN LA EVALUACIÓN DE LOS TRASTORNOS POR DÉFICIT DE ATENCIÓN E HIPERACTIVIDAD

Introducción: se revisan hitos históricos en la evolución de los TDAH hasta la situación actual. Objetivo: El objetivo del estudio fue analizar 4instrumentos que puedan utilizarse como tamizaje para que permita menor tiempo y costo en la identificación delos TDAH en escuelas primarias y secundarias Material y métodos: Se seleccionaron aleatoriamente 116 escuelas de educación básica con el criterio de inclusión de contar con 20 o más alumnos para diversas mediciones, entre ellas, instrumentos y pruebas para detectar TDAH. Por razones de edad se eliminaron para este estudio 35 escuelas preescolares, se incluyeron 56 primarias y 25 secundarias. Se evaluaron 1 742 de primaria y 798 de secundaria, 1 193 y 556 hombres, mismo orden. Los instrumentos utilizados fueron: opinión de los docentes (probables TDAH), Figura de Rey-Osterrieth, (FRO) Cancelación visual de Mesulam (CV) y Conners para maestros. Los encuestadores seleccionaron un grupo control. Se cruzaron las variables entre sí.  Resultados: los instrumentos coincidentes fueron FRO ≤ de 70 y opinión de los docentes y FRO≥ 80 con controles. Conclusión: La opinión de los docentes y/o la FRO pueden ser útiles para el tamizaje en los TDAH. ABSTRACTIntroduction: Milestones are reviewed in the development of ADHD to the current situation. Objectives: The aim of the study was to analyze 4 instruments that can be used as a screening to allow less time and cost models in identifying ADHD in primary and secondary schools. Methods: 116 were randomly selected primary schools with the inclusion criteria of having 20 or more students for various measurements, including instruments and testing for ADHD. For reasons of age were removed for this study 35 preschools, 56 primary and 25 secondary included. They were evaluated 1 742 primary and 798 secondary schools, 1 193 and 556 men, same order. The instruments used were opinion of teachers (probable ADHD), Figure of Rey-Osterrieth, (FRO) visual Cancellation of Meshullam (CV) and Conners teacher. Pollsters selected a control group. The variables together crossed. Results: Matching instruments were FRO ≤ 70 and opinion of teachers and controls FRO≥ 80. Conclusions: The opinion of teachers and / or the FRO may be useful for screening for ADHD. Palabras Clave: escolares, educación básica, trastornos por déficit de atención e hiperactividad, School, basic education, attention deficit disorders and hyperactivit

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale

Impact on the work of clinical pharmacist at the pharmacotherapy management of critically ill patient: Local experience in a clinical hospital

Context: The complexity in critical patient management and polypharmacy, raise the need for support from a clinical pharmacist to optimize drug therapies. Aims: To evaluate the clinical pharmacist participation in an Adult Intensive Care Unit in a local context where the practice is not well established. Methods: The study was conducted in a teaching hospital. Consisted of two stages a retrospective in which were collected of pharmacotherapy follow-up during a period of two years and a prospective phase of observational and cross-sectional character, which picked up the clinical history of patients and pharmaceutical interventions. These pharmaceutical interventions were evaluated by two intensive care physicians and two external pharmacist, using a default score to each one of these, the degree of concordance was obtained using the kappa coefficient. Results: In the retrospective phase were collected 182 patients, who were performed a total of 750 interventions, of which 99.7% was accepted by physician. In the prospective phase, were analyzed 53 patients that involved 263 pharmaceutical interventions with 96.6% of acceptance on the part of the medical staff. The degree of correlation of the interventions was κ = 0.61 between two physicians of the unit, and κ = 0.71 between two external pharmacists. Conclusions: The contribution that a clinical pharmacist can provide in an adult intensive care has a positive impact on the treatment of patients with a high percentage of acceptances on the part of the medical team

The Influence of Perceived Parenting on Substance Initiation Among Mexican Children

Parents shape their children\u27s behaviors and impact their developmental trajectories. Despite this, few studies have examined the potential relationship between child reported parenting factors and lifetime substance use and use intentions. The current study examined the potential impact of parenting factors (i.e., positive parenting, supervision, parental illicit substance use, substance-specific communication) on early substance use and intentions among Latinx children. Data for the present study utilized a representative sample of Mexican children (n = 52,171; 5th and 6th grades) who participated in a national survey on substance use. Children reported their demographics, lifetime substance use/intentions, and perceived parenting characteristic and practices. Child reported parental (i.e., individual or both parents) illicit substance use was associated with the largest increases in risk for reporting lifetime use of all substances examined. Higher levels of positive parenting were consistently associated with reductions in risk for reporting intentions for and use of all substances examined. Parent-child substance specific communication was not significantly related to child reported lifetime use or use intentions, with the exception of a minor decrease in the odds of reporting lifetime inhalant use. Supervision was associated with small to modest increase in risk. Substance use prevention efforts targeting Latinx populations may benefit from promoting positive parenting and direct supervision during childhood. Targeted prevention efforts may be needed for Latinx children exposed to parental illicit substance use, as they may be especially at risk for early substance initiation