Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination

AbstractBackgroundVaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90–95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns.MethodsWe combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination.ResultsWe found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5–9 year olds than established previously.ConclusionsThe immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5–9 year olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination.</jats:sec

Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000-2010 for each country, region and globally. RESULTS: The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4-61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46-195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56-235) and 121 (95% CI: 31-238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000-80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000-97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000-158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000-169,000) in 1996. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination

Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90-95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns. METHODS: We combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination. RESULTS: We found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5-9-year-olds than established previously. CONCLUSIONS: The immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5-9-year-olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination

The effect of time since measles vaccination and age at first dose on measles vaccine effectiveness - A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: In settings where measles has been eliminated, vaccine-derived immunity may in theory wane more rapidly due to a lack of immune boosting by circulating measles virus. We aimed to assess whether measles vaccine effectiveness (VE) waned over time, and if so, whether differentially in measles-eliminated and measles-endemic settings. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review of studies that reported VE and time since vaccination with measles-containing vaccine (MCV). We extracted information on case definition (clinical symptoms and/or laboratory diagnosis), method of vaccination status ascertainment (medical record or vaccine registry), as well as any biases which may have arisen from cold chain issues and a lack of an age at first dose of MCV. We then used linear regression to evaluate VE as a function of age at first dose of MCV and time since MCV. RESULTS: After screening 14,782 citations, we identified three full-text articles from measles-eliminated settings and 33 articles from measles-endemic settings. In elimination settings, two-dose VE estimates increased as age at first dose of MCV increased and decreased as time since MCV increased; however, the small number of studies available limited interpretation. In measles-endemic settings, one-dose VE increased by 1.5% (95% CI 0.5, 2.5) for every month increase in age at first dose of MCV. We found no evidence of waning VE in endemic settings. CONCLUSIONS: The paucity of data from measles-eliminated settings indicates that additional studies and approaches (such as studies using proxies including laboratory correlates of protection) are needed to answer the question of whether VE in measles-eliminated settings wanes. Age at first dose of MCV was the most important factor in determining VE. More VE studies need to be conducted in elimination settings, and standards should be developed for information collected and reported in such studies

Evidence and rationale for the World Health Organization recommended standards for Japanese encephalitis surveillance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most important form of viral encephalitis in Asia. Surveillance for the disease in many countries has been limited. To improve collection of accurate surveillance data in order to increase understanding of the full impact of JE and monitor control programs, World Health Organization (WHO) Recommended Standards for JE Surveillance have been developed. To aid acceptance of the Standards, we describe the process of development, provide the supporting evidence, and explain the rationale for the recommendations made in the document.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A JE Core Working Group was formed in 2002 and worked on development of JE surveillance standards. A series of questions on specific topics was initially developed. A literature review was undertaken and the findings were discussed and documented. The group then prepared a draft document, with emphasis placed on the feasibility of implementation in Asian countries. A field test version of the Standards was published by WHO in January 2006. Feedback was then sought from countries that piloted the Standards and from public health professionals in forums and individual meetings to modify the Standards accordingly.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After revisions, a final version of the JE surveillance standards was published in August 2008. The supporting information is presented here together with explanations of the rationale and levels of evidence for specific recommendations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Provision of the supporting evidence and rationale should help to facilitate successful implementation of the JE surveillance standards in JE-endemic countries which will in turn enable better understanding of disease burden and the impact of control programs.</p

Examples of the fit of catalytic models to the data sets.

<p>Comparison between model predictions of the percentage susceptible and the percentage seronegative to rubella obtained using the four types of catalytic model (denoted by the lines labelled A, B, C and D), and that observed in various settings. The crosses show the observed percentage seronegative together with 95% (exact) confidence intervals.</p

Summary of the serological datasets collected before the introduction of vaccination which were used to estimate the global burden of CRS.

<p>Summary of the serological datasets collected before the introduction of vaccination which were used to estimate the global burden of CRS.</p

Estimates of the number of CRS cases per 100,000 live births among women aged 15–44 years obtained using datasets from countries in which RCV had not been introduced at the time of collection.

<p>The red bars reflect countries which had not introduced RCV by 2010; the white bars indicate countries which had introduced RCV by 2010. The estimates have been weighted by the number of live births in the corresponding country in 2010. Labels on the x-axis denote the year of data collection; uncertain dates of collection are indicated using a question mark. The countries are grouped by WHO regions (AFRO = African, EMRO = Eastern Mediterranean, SEARO = South East Asian, WPRO = Western Pacific).</p

Results of the literature search for age-specific serological data collected before the introduction of rubella vaccination.

<p>Results of the literature search for age-specific serological data collected before the introduction of rubella vaccination.</p

Summary of the catalytic models used in the analyses of serological data.

<p>Note that the lower case letter “<i>a</i>” in the equations below refers to the single year band, whereas “<i>A</i>” (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0149160#pone.0149160.e001" target="_blank">Eq 1</a> in the main text) refers to those in the age group of interest, <i>A</i>.</p