Absolute risk estimation for time to event data

The objective of the thesis is to use time to event models in order to estimate the absolute risk for a certain event. In particular, we will use the data from the Estonian Biobank cohort together with different approaches to estimate the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D). We will use the methodology that accounts for right-censoring in the data. Specifically, we will use three approaches for duration models: - Non-Parametric methods: the Kaplan-Meier estimator; - Semiparametric model: Cox Proportional Hazard models; and - Parametric models: models assuming Weibull and Gompertz distribution. The analysis will be done in R software exclusively. After we have identified the optimal models, we will predict the risks, giving us an approximate estimate which will be potentially useful to personalize risk predictions for the Estonian population and insurance

Resultados Semilleros de Investigación 2009-2010

La publicación recoge los doce informes finales de investigación presentados por los estudiantes de ocho Semilleros 1 y cuatro Semilleros 2, correspondientes a la convocatoria 2009–2010 y se constituye en el Número 25 de la Serie de Investigaciones en Construcción, si bien este es el primer Número publicado en formato digital que UNIJUS se permite poner a disposición no sólo de la comunidad universitaria, sino también de la sociedad colombiana e internacional, interesada en los temas estudiados por los jóvenes investigadores de la Facultad de Derecho, Ciencias Políticas y Sociales de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Compilación de Proyectos de Investigacion de 1984-2002

Instituto Politecnico Nacional. UPIICS

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially