Determinants of subscription levels during Initial Public Offferings (IPO’s) of East African listed firms

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Master of Commerce at Strathmore UniversityAn initial public offer enables a firm to transit from private ownership to public ownership. This was a cross sectional study of the factors that influence the uptake of IPOs in the East African region comprising of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda on their respective Securities Exchanges. The study sought to establish what factors determine subscription levels during Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of firms in the East African region. This study used descriptive research design and multiple regression analysis to determine key determinants of the level of subscription during IPOs. The period of the study was between 1990 and 2018 with a sample 47 firms, with 34 firms having their IPOs oversubscribed, 11 firms reported an under subscription while 2 firms attained a full subscription. To corroborate the results, questionnaire data obtained the transactional advisors perspective on the same. The factors that were considered for this study were: offer price, par value, post issue promoter holding, past performance, age of the firm, length of offer period and investor participation. The study found that offer price, past performance and investor participation were statistically significant hence they were significant determinants of the subscription levels. However, par value, post issue promoter holding, age of the firm and the length of offer period were not statistically significant therefore they did not influence subscription levels. The study further made a distinction between Privatized Initial Public Offerings (PIPOs) and private Initial Public Offerings. PIPOs are firms where the government is offloading its share ownership to the general public while private IPOs are fully private firms that are going public. A comparative analysis was then made to establish whether investors prefer state owned firms or private firms. The findings revealed that there was no statistically significant difference on the subscription levels between an offer for sale by the Government and a private offer. Since the study relied extensively on information provided by prospectuses and disclosures in audited financial statements, a further study on other qualitative factors on what determines subscription levels may be necessary. Future studies can also focus on the specific company factors and behavioral factors investors consider that result to varying subscriptions levels as reported by various firms despite the market being the same and further determine whether these are the factors that influence the issuance of IPOs

Blood culture versus antibiotic use for neonatal inpatients in 61 hospitals implementing with the NEST360 Alliance in Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania: a cross-sectional study

Background: Thirty million small and sick newborns worldwide require inpatient care each year. Many receive antibiotics for clinically diagnosed infections without blood cultures, the current ‘gold standard’ for neonatal infection detection. Low neonatal blood culture use hampers appropriate antibiotic use, fuelling antimicrobial resistance (AMR) which threatens newborn survival. This study analysed the gap between blood culture use and antibiotic prescribing in hospitals implementing with Newborn Essential Solutions and Technologies (NEST360) in Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Methods: Inpatient data from every newborn admission record (July 2019–August 2022) were included to describe hospital-level blood culture use and antibiotic prescription. Health Facility Assessment data informed performance categorisation of hospitals into four tiers: (Tier 1) no laboratory, (Tier 2) laboratory but no microbiology, (Tier 3) neonatal blood culture use \u3c 50% of newborns receiving antibiotics, and (Tier 4) neonatal blood culture use \u3e 50%. Results: A total of 144,146 newborn records from 61 hospitals were analysed. Mean hospital antibiotic prescription was 70% (range = 25–100%), with 6% mean blood culture use (range = 0–56%). Of the 10,575 blood cultures performed, only 24% (95%CI 23–25) had results, with 10% (10–11) positivity. Overall, 40% (24/61) of hospitals performed no blood cultures for newborns. No hospitals were categorised as Tier 1 because all had laboratories. Of Tier 2 hospitals, 87% (20/23) were District hospitals. Most hospitals could do blood cultures (38/61), yet the majority were categorised as Tier 3 (36/61). Only two hospitals performed \u3e 50% blood cultures for newborns on antibiotics (Tier 4). Conclusions: The two Tier 4 hospitals, with higher use of blood cultures for newborns, underline potential for higher blood culture coverage in other similar hospitals. Understanding why these hospitals are positive outliers requires more research into local barriers and enablers to performing blood cultures. Tier 3 facilities are missing opportunities for infection detection, and quality improvement strategies in neonatal units could increase coverage rapidly. Tier 2 facilities could close coverage gaps, but further laboratory strengthening is required. Closing this culture gap is doable and a priority for advancing locally-driven antibiotic stewardship programmes, preventing AMR, and reducing infection-related newborn deaths

Recalibrating prognostic models to improve predictions of in-hospital child mortality in resource-limited settings

Background In an external validation study, model recalibration is suggested once there is evidence of poor model calibration but with acceptable discriminatory abilities. We identified four models, namely RISC-Malawi (Respiratory Index of Severity in Children) developed in Malawi, and three other predictive models developed in Uganda by Lowlaavar et al. (2016). These prognostic models exhibited poor calibration performance in the recent external validation study, hence the need for recalibration. Objective In this study, we aim to recalibrate these models using regression coefficients updating strategy and determine how much their performances improve. Methods We used data collected by the Clinical Information Network from paediatric wards of 20 public county referral hospitals. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations. Model updating entailed adjustment of the model's calibration performance while the discriminatory ability remained unaltered. We used two strategies to adjust the model: intercept-only and the logistic recalibration method. Results Eligibility criteria for the RISC-Malawi model were met in 50,669 patients, split into two sets: a model-recalibrating set (n = 30,343) and a test set (n = 20,326). For the Lowlaavar models, 10,782 patients met the eligibility criteria, of whom 6175 were used to recalibrate the models and 4607 were used to test the performance of the adjusted model. The intercept of the recalibrated RISC-Malawi model was 0.12 (95% CI 0.07, 0.17), while the slope of the same model was 1.08 (95% CI 1.03, 1.13). The performance of the recalibrated models on the test set suggested that no model met the threshold of a perfectly calibrated model, which includes a calibration slope of 1 and a calibration-in-the-large/intercept of 0. Conclusions Even after model adjustment, the calibration performances of the 4 models did not meet the recommended threshold for perfect calibration. This finding is suggestive of models over/underestimating the predicted risk of in-hospital mortality, potentially harmful clinically. Therefore, researchers may consider other alternatives, such as ensemble techniques to combine these models into a meta-model to improve out-of-sample predictive performance

Development of a small and sick newborn clinical audit tool and its implementation guide using a human-centred design approach newborn clinical audit process and design

Clinical audits are an important intervention that enables health workers to reflect on their practice and identify and act on modifiable gaps in the care provided. To effectively audit the quality of care provided to the small and sick newborns, the clinical audit process must use a structured tool that comprehensively covers the continuum of newborn care from immediately after birth to the period of newborn unit care. The objective of the study was to co-design a newborn clinical audit tool that considered the key principles of a Human Centred Design approach. A three-step Human Centred Design approach was used that began by (1) understanding the context, the users and the available audit tools through literature, focus group discussions and a consensus meeting that was used to develop a prototype audit tool and its implementation guide, (2) the prototype audit tool was taken through several cycles of reviewing with users on real cases in a high volume newborn unit and refining it based on their feedback, and (3) the final prototype tool and the implementation guide were then tested in two high volume newborn units to determine their usability. Several cycles of evaluation and redesigning of the prototype audit tool revealed that the users preferred a comprehensive tool that catered to human factors such as reduced free text for ease of filling, length of the tool, and aesthetics. Identified facilitators and barriers influencing the newborn clinical audit in Kenyan public hospitals informed the design of an implementation guide that builds on the strengths and overcomes the barriers. We adopted a Human Centred Design approach to developing a newborn clinical audit tool and an implementation guide that we believe are comprehensive and consider the characteristics of the context of use and the user requirements

Risk factors for death among children aged 5-14 years hospitalised with pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: There were almost 1 million deaths in children aged between 5 and 14 years in 2017, and pneumonia accounted for 11%. However, there are no validated guidelines for pneumonia management in older children and data to support their development are limited. We sought to understand risk factors for mortality among children aged 5-14 years hospitalised with pneumonia in district-level health facilities in Kenya. METHODS: We did a retrospective cohort study using data collected from an established clinical information network of 13 hospitals. We reviewed records for children aged 5-14 years admitted with pneumonia between 1 March 2014 and 28 February 2018. Individual clinical signs were examined for association with inpatient mortality using logistic regression. We used existing WHO criteria (intended for under 5s) to define levels of severity and examined their performance in identifying those at increased risk of death. RESULTS: 1832 children were diagnosed with pneumonia and 145 (7.9%) died. Severe pallor was strongly associated with mortality (adjusted OR (aOR) 8.06, 95% CI 4.72 to 13.75) as were reduced consciousness, mild/moderate pallor, central cyanosis and older age (>9 years) (aOR >2). Comorbidities HIV and severe acute malnutrition were also associated with death (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.84 and aOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.12 to 3.21, respectively). The presence of clinical characteristics used by WHO to define severe pneumonia was associated with death in univariate analysis (OR 2.69). However, this combination of clinical characteristics was poor in discriminating those at risk of death (sensitivity: 0.56, specificity: 0.68, and area under the curve: 0.62). CONCLUSION: Children >5 years have high inpatient pneumonia mortality. These findings also suggest that the WHO criteria for classification of severity for children under 5 years do not appear to be a valid tool for risk assessment in this older age group, indicating the urgent need for evidence-based clinical guidelines for this neglected population

A mixed-methods study to investigate feasibility and acceptability of an early warning score for preterm infants in neonatal units in Kenya: results of the NEWS-K study

Preterm birth (\u3c 37 weeks gestation) complications are the leading cause of neonatal mortality. Early-warning scores (EWS) are charts where vital signs (e.g., temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate) are recorded, triggering action. To evaluate whether a neonatal EWS improves clinical outcomes in low-middle income countries, a randomised trial is needed. Determining whether the use of a neonatal EWS is feasible and acceptable in newborn units, is a prerequisite to conducting a trial. We implemented a neonatal EWS in three newborn units in Kenya. Staff were asked to record infants’ vital signs on the EWS during the study, triggering additional interventions as per existing local guidelines. No other aspects of care were altered. Feasibility criteria were pre-specified. We also interviewed health professionals (n = 28) and parents/family members (n = 42) to hear their opinions of the EWS. Data were collected on 465 preterm and/or low birthweight (\u3c 2.5 kg) infants. In addition to qualitative study participants, 45 health professionals in participating hospitals also completed an online survey to share their views on the EWS. 94% of infants had the EWS completed at least once during their newborn unit admission. EWS completion was highest on the day of admission (93%). Completion rates were similar across shifts. 15% of vital signs triggered escalation to a more senior member of staff. Health professionals reported liking the EWS, though recognised the biggest barrier to implementation was poor staffing. Newborn unit infant to staff ratios varied between 10 and 53 staff per 1 infant, depending upon time of shift and staff type. A randomised trial of neonatal EWS in Kenya is possible and acceptable, though adaptations are required to the form before implementation

Assessment of neonatal care in clinical training facilities in Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: An audit of neonatal care services provided by clinical training centres was undertaken to identify areas requiring improvement as part of wider efforts to improve newborn survival in Kenya. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using indicators based on prior work in Kenya. Statistical analyses were descriptive with adjustment for clustering of data. SETTING: Neonatal units of 22 public hospitals. PATIENTS: Neonates aged 20% in prescriptions for penicillin (11.6%, 95% CI 3.4% to 32.8%) and gentamicin (18.5%, 95% CI 13.4% to 25%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Basic resources are generally available, but there are deficiencies in key areas. Poor documentation limits the use of routine data for quality improvement. Significant opportunities exist for improvement in service delivery and adherence to guidelines in hospitals providing professional training

Effective coverage of essential inpatient care for small and sick newborns in a high mortality urban setting: a cross-sectional study in Nairobi City County, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Effective coverage requires that those in need can access skilled care supported by adequate resources. There are, however, few studies of effective coverage of facility-based neonatal care in low-income settings, despite the recognition that improving newborn survival is a global priority. METHODS: We used a detailed retrospective review of medical records for neonatal admissions to public, private not-for-profit (mission) and private-for-profit (private) sector facilities providing 24×7 inpatient neonatal care in Nairobi City County to estimate the proportion of small and sick newborns receiving nationally recommended care across six process domains. We used our findings to explore the relationship between facility measures of structure and process and estimate effective coverage. RESULTS: Of 33 eligible facilities, 28 (four public, six mission and 18 private), providing an estimated 98.7% of inpatient neonatal care in the county, agreed to partake. Data from 1184 admission episodes were collected. Overall performance was lowest (weighted mean score 0.35 [95% confidence interval or CI: 0.22-0.48] out of 1) for correct prescription of fluid and feed volumes and best (0.86 [95% CI: 0.80-0.93]) for documentation of demographic characteristics. Doses of gentamicin, when prescribed, were at least 20% higher than recommended in 11.7% cases. Larger (often public) facilities tended to have higher process and structural quality scores compared with smaller, predominantly private, facilities. We estimate effective coverage to be 25% (estimate range: 21-31%). These newborns received high-quality inpatient care, while almost half (44.5%) of newborns needed care but did not receive it and a further 30.4% of newborns received an inadequate service. CONCLUSIONS: Failure to receive services and gaps in quality of care both contribute to a shortfall in effective coverage in Nairobi City County. Three-quarters of small and sick newborns do not have access to high-quality facility-based care. Substantial improvements in effective coverage will be required to tackle high neonatal mortality in this urban setting with high levels of poverty

Evaluating the effects of supplementing ward nurses on quality of newborn care in Kenyan neonatal units: protocol for a prospective workforce intervention study

BACKGROUND: Data from High Income Countries have now linked low nurse staff to patient ratios to poor quality patient care. Adequately staffing hospitals is however still a challenge in resource-constrained Low-middle income countries (LMICs) and poor staff-to-patient ratios are largely taken as a norm. This in part relates to limited evidence on the relationship between staffing and quality of patient care in these settings and also an absence of research on benefits that might occur from improving hospital staff numbers in LMICs. This study will determine the effect on the quality of patient care of prospectively adding extra nursing staff to newborn units in a resource constrained LMIC setting and describe the relationship between staffing and quality of care. METHODS: This prospective workforce intervention study will involve a multi-method approach. We will conduct a before and after study in newborn units of 4 intervention hospitals and a single time-point comparison in 4 non-intervention hospitals to determine if there is a change in the level of missed nursing care, a process measure of the quality of patient care. We will also determine the effect of our intervention on routinely collected quality indicators using interrupted time series analysis. Using three nurse staffing metrics (Total nursing hours, nursing hours per patient day and nursing hours per patient per shift), we will describe the relationship between staffing and the quality of patient care. DISCUSSION: There is an urgent need for the implementation of staffing policies in resource constrained LMICs that are guided by relevant contextual data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the prospective addition of nursing staff in resource-constrained care settings. Our findings are likely to provide the much-needed evidence for better staffing in these settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was retrospectively registered in the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry ( https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/Default.aspx?Logout=True ) database on the 10th of June 2022 with a unique identification number-PACTR202206477083141

Quality of comprehensive emergency obstetric care through the lens of clinical documentation on admission to labour ward

Background: Clinical documentation gives a chronological order of procedures and activities that a patient is given during their management.Objective: To determine the level of quality of comprehensive emergency obstetric care, through the lens of clinical documentation of process indicators of selected emergency obstetric conditions that mostly cause maternal mortality on admission to labour wardDesign: Multi-site cross sectional survey.Setting: Twenty two Government Hospitals in Kenya with capacity to offer comprehensive emergency obstetric care.Subjects: Process variables were abstracted from patient’ case records with a diagnosis of normal vaginal delivery, obstetric haemorrhage, severe pre eclampsia/eclampsia and emergency cesarean section.Results: Availability of structure indicators were graded excellent and good except for long gloves, misoprostol, ergometrin and parenteral cefuroxime that were graded low. A total of 1,216 records were abstracted for process analysis. The median (IQR) for the: six variables of obstetric history was five (4-5); five variables of antenatal profile was four (1-5); five variables of vital signs documentation was three (2-4); five variables for obstetric exam was four (4-5); seven variables of vaginal examination one (0-2); ten variables for partograph was seven (2-9); five variables for obstetric hemorrhage was three (2-4) and eleven variables for severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia was five (3-6). The median (IQR) from decision-to-operate to caesarean section was three (2-4) hours.Conclusion: Quality of emergency obstetric care based on documentation depicts inadequacy. There is an urgent need to objectively address the need for proper clinical documentation as an indicator of quality performance