Andean tectonics: Implications for Satellite Geodesy

Current knowledge and theories of large scale Andean tectonics as they relate to site planning for the NASA Crustal Dynamics Program's proposed high precision geodetic measurements of relative motions between the Nazca and South American plates are summarized. The Nazca Plate and its eastern margin, the Peru-Chile Trench, is considered a prototype plate marked by rapid motion, strong seismicity and well defined boundaries. Tectonic activity across the Andes results from the Nazca Plate subducting under the South American plate in a series of discrete platelets with different widths and dip angles. This in turn, is reflected in the tectonic complexity of the Andes which are a multitutde of orogenic belts superimposed on each other since the Precambrian. Sites for Crustal Dynamics Program measurements are being located to investigate both interplate and extraplate motions. Observing operations have already been initiated at Arequipa, Peru and Easter Island, Santiago and Cerro Tololo, Chile. Sites under consideration include Iquique, Chile; Oruro and Santa Cruz, Bolivia; Cuzco, Lima, Huancayo and Bayovar, Peru; and Quito and the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador. Based on scientific considerations, Santa Cruz, Huancayo (or Lima), Quito and the Galapagos Islands should be replaced by Isla San Felix, Chile; Brazilia or Petrolina, Brazil; and Guayaquil, Ecuador. If resources permit, additional important sites would be Buenaventura and Villavicencio or Puerto La Concordia, Colombia; and Mendoza and Cordoba, Argentina

Implications of very long baseline interferometry measurements on North American intra-plate crustal deformation

Very Long Baseline Interferometry experiments over the last 1-3/4 years between Owens Valley, CA and Haystack, MA Radio Observatories suggest an upper limit of east-west crustal deformation between the two sites of about 1 cm/yr. In view of the fact that the baseline between the two sites traverses most of the major geological provinces of the United States, this low rate of crustal deformation has direct relevance to intra-plate crustal tectonics. The most active region traversed by this baseline is the Basin and Range province, which was estimated by various researchers to be expanding in an east-west direction at rates of .3 to 1.5 cm/yr. The Colorado Plateau and Rocky Mountain system also appear to be expanding, but at a somewhat lower rate, while east of the Rocky Mountains, the predominant stress appears to be compressional, nearly horizontal, and east to northeast trending

Satellite Relaying of Geophysical Data

Data Collection Platforms (DCPs) for transmitting surface data to an orbiting satellite for relaying to a central data distribution center are being used in a number of geophysical applications. "Off-the-shelf" DCP's, transmitting through Landsat or GOES satellites, are fully capable of relaying data from low-data-rate instruments, such as tiltmeters or tide gauges. In cooperation with the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Goddard has successfully installed DCP systems on a tide gauge and tiltmeter array on Anegada, British Virgin Islands. Because of the high-data-rate requirements, a practical relay system capable of handling seismic information is not yet available. Such a system could become the basis of an operational hazard prediction system for reducing losses due to major natural catastrophies such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides or tsunamis

Proposed satellite laser ranging and very long baseline interferometry sites for crustal dynamics investigations

Recommendations are presented for a global network of 125 sites for geodetic measurements by satellite laser ranging and very long baseline interferometry. The sites were proposed on the basis of existing facilities and scientific value for investigation of crustal dynamics as related to earthquake hazards. Tectonic problems are discussed for North America peripheral regions and for the world. The sites are presented in tables and maps, with bibliographic references

On the geodetic stability of the Goddard Optical Research Facility

Seismic observations of earthquakes and blasts, geologic analysis of Landsat images, and a search of the historical record was examined. However, no evidence for tectonic motion was found. Some faulting is present in the area but no evidence of seismic activity was found. No elastic resonances in the range from 0.3 to 15 Hz were found. It is concluded that, except for ground water induced changes, the facility is stable at least to the 0.5 cm level

Applications of satellite data relay to problems of field seismology

A seismic signal processor was developed and tested for use with the NOAA-GOES satellite data collection system. Performance tests on recorded, as well as real time, short period signals indicate that the event recognition technique used is nearly perfect in its rejection of cultural signals and that data can be acquired in many swarm situations with the use of solid state buffer memories. Detailed circuit diagrams are provided. The design of a complete field data collection platform is discussed and the employment of data collection platforms in seismic network is reviewed

Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20

Understanding Pseudomonas status among adults with cystic fibrosis: a real-world comparison of the Leeds criteria against clinicians' decision

Pseudomonas aeruginosa status influences cystic fibrosis (CF) clinical management but no 'gold standard' definition exists. The Leeds criteria are commonly used but may lack sensitivity for chronic P. aeruginosa. We compared clinicians' decision with the Leeds criteria in three adult CF centres. Two independent prospective datasets (Sheffield dataset, n = 185 adults; ACtiF pilot dataset, n = 62 adults from two different centres) were analysed. Clinicians involved in deciding P. aeruginosa status were blinded to the study objectives. Clinicians considered more adults with CF to have chronic P. aeruginosa infection compared to the Leeds criteria. This was more so for the Sheffield dataset (106/185, 57.3% with clinicians' decision vs. 80/185, 43.2% with the Leeds criteria; kappa coefficient between these two methods 0.72) compared to the ACtiF pilot dataset (34/62, 54.8% with clinicians' decision vs. 30/62, 48.4% with the Leeds criteria; kappa coefficient between these two methods 0.82). However, clinicians across different centres were relatively consistent once age and severity of lung disease, as indicated by the type of respiratory samples provided, were taken into account. Agreement in P. aeruginosa status was similar for both datasets among adults who predominantly provided sputum samples (kappa coefficient 0.78) or adults > 25 years old (kappa coefficient 0.82). Across three different centres, clinicians did not always agree with the Leeds criteria and tended to consider the Leeds criteria to lack sensitivity. Where disagreement occurred, clinicians tended to diagnose chronic P. aeruginosa infection because other relevant information was considered. These results suggest that a better definition for chronic P. aeruginosa might be developed by using consensus methods to move beyond a definition wholly dependent on standard microbiological results

Tectonic motion site survey of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Green Bank, West Virginia

A geological and geophysical site survey was made of the area around the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) to determine whether there are at present local tectonic movements that could introduce significant errors to Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) geodetic measurements. The site survey consisted of a literature search, photogeologic mapping with Landsat and Skylab photographs, a field reconnaissance, and installation of a seismometer at the NRAO. It is concluded that local tectonic movement will not contribute significantly to VLBI errors. It is recommended that similar site surveys be made of all locations used for VLBI or laser ranging

Choice Models in Marketing: Economic Assumptions, Challenges and Trends

Direct utility models of consumer choice are reviewed and developed for understanding consumer preferences. We begin with a review of statistical models of choice, posing a series of modeling challenges that are resolved by considering economic foundations based on con-strained utility maximization. Direct utility models differ from other choice models by directly modeling the consumer utility function used to derive the likelihood of the data through Kuhn-Tucker con-ditions. Recent advances in Bayesian estimation make the estimation of these models computationally feasible, offering advantages in model interpretation over models based on indirect utility, and descriptive models that tend to be highly parameterized. Future trends are dis-cussed in terms of the antecedents and enhancements of utility function specification.