Epidemics on contact networks: a general stochastic approach

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our systematic framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.Comment: Main document: 16 pages, 7 figures. Electronic Supplementary Material (included): 6 pages, 1 tabl

Means and covariance functions for geostatistical compositional data: an axiomatic approach

This work focuses on the characterization of the central tendency of a sample of compositional data. It provides new results about theoretical properties of means and covariance functions for compositional data, with an axiomatic perspective. Original results that shed new light on the geostatistical modeling of compositional data are presented. As a first result, it is shown that the weighted arithmetic mean is the only central tendency characteristic satisfying a small set of axioms, namely continuity, reflexivity and marginal stability. Moreover, this set of axioms also implies that the weights must be identical for all parts of the composition. This result has deep consequences on the spatial multivariate covariance modeling of compositional data. In a geostatistical setting, it is shown as a second result that the proportional model of covariance functions (i.e., the product of a covariance matrix and a single correlation function) is the only model that provides identical kriging weights for all components of the compositional data. As a consequence of these two results, the proportional model of covariance function is the only covariance model compatible with reflexivity and marginal stability

Success of microvascular surgery; repair mesenteric injury and prevent short bowel syndrome: a case report

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis to Inform Cancer Screening Guidelines in Idiopathic Inflammatory Myopathies

OBJECTIVES: To identify clinical factors associated with cancer risk in the idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) and to systematically review the existing evidence related to cancer screening. METHODS: A systematic literature search was carried out on Medline, Embase and Scopus. Cancer risk within the IIM population (i.e. not compared to the general population) was expressed as risk ratios (RR) for binary variables and weighted mean differences (WMD) for continuous variables. Evidence relating to cancer screening practices in the IIMs were synthesised via narrative review. RESULTS: Sixty nine studies were included in the meta-analysis. Dermatomyositis subtype (RR 2.21), older age (WMD 11.19), male gender (RR 1.53), dysphagia (RR 2.09), cutaneous ulceration (RR 2.73), and anti-transcriptional intermediary factor-1 gamma positivity (RR 4.66) were identified as being associated with significantly increased risk of cancer. Polymyositis (RR 0.49) and clinically amyopathic dermatomyositis (RR 0.44) subtypes, Raynaud's phenomenon (RR 0.61), interstitial lung disease (RR 0.49), very high serum creatine kinase (WMD -1189.96) or lactate dehydrogenase (WMD -336.52) levels, and anti-Jo1 (RR 0.45) or anti-EJ (RR 0.17) positivity were identified as being associated with significantly reduced risk of cancer. Nine studies relating to IIM-specific cancer screening were included. Computed tomography (CT) scanning of the thorax, abdomen and pelvis appeared to be effective in identifying underlying asymptomatic cancers. DISCUSSION: Cancer risk factors should be evaluated in patients with IIM for risk stratification. Screening evidence is limited but CT scanning could be useful. Prospective studies and consensus guidelines are needed to establish cancer screening strategies in IIM patients

Evaluation of the Genetic Association Between Adult Obesity and Neuropsychiatric Disease

Extreme obesity (EO, BMI>50) is frequently associated with neuropsychiatric disease (NPD). As both EO and NPD are heritable central nervous system disorders, we assessed the prevalence of protein truncating (PTV) and copy number variants (CNV) in genes/regions previously implicated in NPD, in adults with EO (n=149) referred for weight loss/bariatric surgery. We also assessed the prevalence of CNVs in patients referred to University College London Hospital (UCLH) with EO (n=218) and obesity (O, BMI 35-50, n=374) and a Swedish cohort of participants from the community with predominantly O (n=161). The prevalence of variants was compared to controls in ExAC/gnomAd database. In the discovery cohort (high NPD prevalence: 77%), the cumulative PTV/CNV allele frequency (AF) was 7.7 % vs 2.6% in controls (Odds Ratio (OR) 3.1, (95% CI 2-4.1, p<0.0001). In the UCLH EO cohort (intermediate NPD prevalence: 47%), CNV AF (1.8% vs 0.9% in controls, OR 1.95, 95% CI 0.96-3.93, p=0.06) was lower than the discovery cohort. CNV AF was not increased in the UCLH O cohort (0.8%). No CNVs were identified in the Swedish cohort with no NPD. These findings suggest PTV/CNVs, in genes/regions previously associated with NPD, may contribute to NPD in patients with EO

Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention

Existence of Integral mm-Varifolds minimizing ∫∣A∣p\int |A|^p and ∫∣H∣p\int |H|^p, p>mp>m, in Riemannian Manifolds

We prove existence and partial regularity of integral rectifiable $m$-dimensional varifolds minimizing functionals of the type $\int |H|^p$ and $\int |A|^p$ in a given Riemannian $n$-dimensional manifold $(N,g)$, $2\leq mm$, under suitable assumptions on $N$ (in the end of the paper we give many examples of such ambient manifolds). To this aim we introduce the following new tools: some monotonicity formulas for varifolds in $\mathbb{R}^S$ involving $\int |H|^p$, to avoid degeneracy of the minimizer, and a sort of isoperimetric inequality to bound the mass in terms of the mentioned functionals.Comment: 33 pages; this second submission corresponds to the published version of the paper, minor typos are fixe

Chronic hypothermia and energy expenditure in a neurodevelopmentally disabled patient: a case study

Hypothermia is defined as a core body temperature of \u3c35°C and results in a decrease in measured resting energy expenditure. A 51-year-old mentally disabled patient experienced chronic hypothermia from neurologic sequelae. Because of her continued weight gain and increased body fat in the presence of presumed hypocaloric nutrition, indirect calorimetry measurements were performed twice in a 3-month period. The resting energy expenditure measurements prompted a reduction of her daily caloric intake to prevent further overfeeding. Hypothermia reduces oxygen consumption and, as a consequence, decreases resting energy expenditure. In patients for whom chronic hypothermia is a problem, nutritional intake must be adjusted to prevent overfeeding, excessive weight gain, and the long-term complications of an excess of total calories

Altered sensory-weighting mechanisms is observed in adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis

BACKGROUND: Scoliosis is the most common type of spinal deformity. In North American children, adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) makes up about 90% of all cases of scoliosis. While its prevalence is about 2% to 3% in children aged between 10 to 16 years, girls are more at risk than boys for severe progression with a ratio of 3.6 to 1. The aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that idiopathic scoliosis interferes with the mechanisms responsible for sensory-reweighting during balance control. METHODS: Eight scoliosis patients (seven female and one male; mean age: 16.4 years) and nine healthy adolescents (average age 16.5 years) participated in the experiment. Visual and ankle proprioceptive information was perturbed (eyes closed and/or tendon vibration) suddenly and then returned to normal (eyes open and/or no tendon vibration). An AMTI force platform was used to compute centre of pressure root mean squared velocity and sway density curve. RESULTS: For the control condition (eyes open and no tendon vibration), adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients had a greater centre of pressure root mean squared velocity (variability) than control participants. Reintegration of ankle proprioception, when vision was either available or removed, led to an increased centre of pressure velocity variability for the adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients whereas the control participants reduced their centre of pressure velocity variability. Moreover, in the absence of vision, adolescent idiopathic scoliosis exhibited an increased centre of pressure velocity variability when ankle proprioception was returned to normal (i.e. tendon vibration stopped). The analysis of the sway density plot suggests that adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients, during sensory reintegration, do not scale appropriately their balance control commands. CONCLUSION: Altogether, the present results demonstrate that idiopathic scoliosis adolescents have difficulty in reweighting sensory inputs following a brief period of sensory deprivation

Cancer and heart attack survivors’ expectations of employment status: results from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Background: Sociodemographic, health- and work-related factors have been found to influence return to work in cancer survivors. It is feasible though that behavioural factors, such as expectation of being at work, could also affect work-related outcomes. Therefore, the effect of earlier identified factors and expectation of being at work on future employment status in cancer survivors was explored. To assess the degree to which these factors specifically concern cancer survivors, a comparison with heart attack survivors was made. Methods: Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were used. Cancer and heart attack survivors of working age in the UK were included and followed up for 2 years. Baseline characteristics of both cancer and heart attack survivors were compared regarding employment status. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed in survivors at work, and the interaction between independent variables and diagnose group was assessed. Results: In cancer survivors at work (N = 159), alcohol consumption, participating in moderate or vigorous sport activities, general health and participation were univariate associated with employment status at two-year followup. Only fair general health (compared to very good general health) remained statistically significant in the multivariate model (OR 0.31; 95% CI 0.13–0.76; p = 0.010). In heart attack survivors at work (N = 78), gender, general health and expectation of being at work were univariate associated with employment status at follow-up. Female gender (OR 0.03; 95% CI 0.00–0.57; p = 0.018) and high expectation of being at work (OR 10.68; 95% CI 1.23–93.92; p = 0.033) remained significant in the multivariate model. The influence of gender (p = 0.066) and general health (p = 0.020) regarding employment status was found to differ significantly between cancer and heart attack survivors. Conclusions: When predicting future employment status in cancer survivors in the UK, general health is the most relevant factor to consider. While expectation of being at work did not show any significant influence in cancer survivors, in heart attack survivors, it should not be disregarded though, when developing interventions to affect their employment status. Future research should focus on more specific measures for expectation, and additional behavioural factors, such as self-efficacy, and their effect on employment status