Footprints of a possible Ceres asteroid paleo-family

Ceres is the largest and most massive body in the asteroid main belt. Observational data from the Dawn spacecraft reveal the presence of at least two impact craters about 280~km in diameter on the Ceres surface, that could have expelled a significant number of fragments. Yet, standard techniques for identifying dynamical asteroid families have not detected any Ceres family. In this work, we argue that linear secular resonances with Ceres deplete the population of objects near Ceres. Also, because of the high escape velocity from Ceres, family members are expected to be very dispersed, with a considerable fraction of km-sized fragments that should be able to reach the pristine region of the main belt, the area between the 5J:-2A and 7J:-3A mean-motion resonances, where the observed number of asteroids is low. Rather than looking for possible Ceres family members near Ceres, here we propose to search in the pristine region. We identified 156 asteroids whose taxonomy, colors, albedo could be compatible with being fragments from Ceres. Remarkably, most of these objects have inclinations near that of Ceres itself.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in MNRA

On the oldest asteroid families in the main belt

Asteroid families are groups of minor bodies produced by high-velocity collisions. After the initial dispersions of the parent bodies fragments, their orbits evolve because of several gravitational and non-gravitational effects,such as diffusion in mean-motion resonances, Yarkovsky and YORP effects, close encounters of collisions, etc. The subsequent dynamical evolution of asteroid family members may cause some of the original fragments to travel beyond the conventional limits of the asteroid family. Eventually, the whole family will dynamically disperse and no longer be recognizable. A natural question that may arise concerns the timescales for dispersion of large families. In particular, what is the oldest still recognizable family in the main belt? Are there any families that may date from the late stages of the Late Heavy Bombardment and that could provide clues on our understanding of the primitive Solar System? In this work, we investigate the dynamical stability of seven of the allegedly oldest families in the asteroid main belt. Our results show that none of the seven studied families has a nominally mean estimated age older than 2.7 Gyr, assuming standard values for the parameters describing the strength of the Yarkovsky force. Most "paleo-families" that formed between 2.7 and 3.8 Gyr would be characterized by a very shallow size-frequency distribution, and could be recognizable only if located in a dynamically less active region (such as that of the Koronis family). V-type asteroids in the central main belt could be compatible with a formation from a paleo-Eunomia family.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRA

The Rafita asteroid family

The Rafita asteroid family is an S-type group located in the middle main belt, on the right side of the 3J:-1A mean-motion resonance. The proximity of this resonance to the family left side in semi-major axis caused many former family members to be lost. As a consequence, the family shape in the $(a,1/D)$ domain is quite asymmetrical, with a preponderance of objects on the right side of the distribution. The Rafita family is also characterized by a leptokurtic distribution in inclination, which allows the use of methods of family age estimation recently introduced for other leptokurtic families such as Astrid, Hansa, Gallia, and Barcelona. In this work we propose a new method based on the behavior of an asymmetry coefficient function of the distribution in the $(a,1/D)$ plane to date incomplete asteroid families such as Rafita. By monitoring the time behavior of this coefficient for asteroids simulating the initial conditions at the time of the family formation, we were able to estimate that the Rafita family should have an age of $490\pm200$ Myr, in good agreement with results from independent methods such as Monte Carlo simulations of Yarkovsky and Yorp dynamical induced evolution and the time behaviour of the kurtosis of the $\sin{(i)}$ distribution. Asteroids from the Rafita family can reach orbits similar to 8\% of the currently known near Earth objects. $\simeq$1\% of the simulated objects are present in NEO-space during the final 10 Myr of the simulation, and thus would be comparable to objects in the present-day NEO population.Comment: Accepted 2017 January 19. Received 2017 January 17; in original form 2016 September

Accurate free and forced rotational motions of rigid Venus

% context :The precise and accurate modelling of a terrestrial planet like Venus is an exciting and challenging topic, all the more interesting since it can be compared with that of the Earth for which such a modelling has already been achieved at the milliarcsecond level % aims: We want to complete a previous study (Cottereau and Souchay, 2009), by determining at the milliarcsecond level the polhody, i.e. the torque-free motion of the axis of angular momentum of a rigid Venus in a body-fixed frame, as well as the nutation of its third axis of figure in space, which is fundamental from an observational point of view. results :In a first part we have computed the polhody, i.e. the respective free rotational motion of the axis of angular momentum of Venus with respect to a body-fixed frame. We have shown that this motion is highly elliptical, with a very long period of 525 cy to be compared with 430 d for the Earth. This is due to the very small dynamical flattening of Venus in comparison with our planet. In a second part we have computed precisely the Oppolzer terms which allow to represent the motion in space of the third Venus figure axis with respect to Venus angular momentum axis, under the influence of the solar gravitational torque. We have determined the corresponding tables of coefficients of nutation of the third figure axis both in longitude and in obliquity due to the Sun, which are of the same order of amplitude as for the Earth. We have shown that the coefficients of nutation for the third figure axis are significantly different from those of the angular momentum axis on the contrary of the Earth. Our analytical results have been validated by a numerical integration which revealed the indirect planetary effects.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in section 11. Celestial mechanics and astrometry of Astronomy and Astrophysics (27/02/2010

Machine learning to predict the solar flux and geomagnetic indices to model density and Drag in Satellites

In recent years (2000-2021), human-space activities have been increasing faster than ever. More than 36000 Earth' orbiting objects, all larger than 10 cm, in orbit around the Earth, are currently tracked by the European Space Agency (ESA). Around 70\% of all cataloged objects are in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO). Aerodynamic drag provides one of the main sources of perturbations in this population, gradually decreasing the semi-major axis and period of the LEO satellites. Usually, an empirical atmosphere model as a function of solar radio flux and geomagnetic data is used to calculate the orbital decay and lifetimes of LEO satellites. In this respect, a good forecast for the space weather data could be a key tool to improve the model of drag. In this work, we propose using Time Series Forecasting Model to predict the future behavior of the solar flux and to calculate the atmospheric density, to improve the analytical models and reduce the drag uncertainty

Dynamics Around an Asteroid Modeled as a Mass Tripole

The orbital dynamics of a spacecraft orbiting around irregular small celestial bodies is a challenging problem. Difficulties to model the gravity field of these bodies arise from the poor knowledge of the exact shape as observed from the Earth. In order to understand the complex dynamical environment in the vicinity of irregular asteroids, several studies have been conducted using simplified models. In this work, we investigate the qualitative dynamics in the vicinity of an asteroid with an arched shape using a tripole model based on the existence of three mass points linked to each other by rods with given lengths and negligible masses. We applied our results to some real systems, namely, asteroids 8567, 243 Ida and 433 Eros and also Phobos, one of the natural satellites of Mars

Numerical investigations of the orbital dynamics around a synchronous binary system of asteroids

In this article, equilibrium points and families of periodic orbits in the vicinity of the collinear equilibrium points of a binary asteroid system are investigated with respect to the angular velocity of the secondary body, the mass ratio of the system and the size of the secondary. We assume that the gravitational fields of the bodies are modeled assuming the primary as a mass point and the secondary as a rotating mass dipole. This model allows to compute families of planar and halo periodic orbits that emanate from the equilibrium points $L_1$ and $L_2$. The stability and bifurcations of these families are analyzed and the results are compared with the results obtained with the Restricted Three-Body Problem (RTBP). The results provide an overview of the dynamical behavior in the vicinity of a binary asteroid system