Linking migration, climate and social protection in Brazilian semiarid: case studies of Submédio São Francisco and Seridó Potiguar

Over the known history of Brazilian sertões migration has been recorded as a human response to drought episodes. Social protection policies beginning around 2003 had dramatically diminished poverty rates and, within this context, migration changed compared to other periods, becoming more heterogeneous and diffuse. The article aims to explore the link between drought, migration and social protection in the Brazilian semiarid region based upon the analysis and conceptual discussion about two case studies: Submédio São Francisco and Seridó Potiguar. In contrast with the past, actual migration holds an indirect relation to climate. Public policy softened the impacts of the climate over livelihoods and changed the coping strategies. In this sense, mobility outside the semi-arid was not a strategy to survive. Yet, the role of the state in the preceding decades and the region’s historical path – inseparable from its climate – drew persistent migration flows that still reverberate in present dynamics.  Ao longo da história dos sertões, a migração foi registrada como resposta humana a episódios de seca. Políticas de proteção social iniciadas nos anos 2003 diminuíram drasticamente as taxas de pobreza, ao passo que a migração mudou comparada a outros períodos, tornando-se mais heterogênea e difusa. O artigo visa explorar o nexo entre secas, migrações e proteção social na região, baseado na análise e discussão conceitual em torno de dois estudos de caso: o Submédio São Francisco e o Seridó Potiguar. Em contraste com o passado, a migração do presente tem uma relação indireta com o clima. Políticas públicas moderaram os impactos do clima sobre os meios de vida e estratégias. Portanto, deixar o semiárido não seria mais uma estratégia de sobrevivência. Ainda assim, o papel do estado nas décadas anteriores e a trajetória histórica da região – inseparável do clima – desenhou fluxos migratórios persistentes que ainda reverberam no presente.

Transições populacionais e vulnerabilidade às mudanças climáticas no Brasil

The paper initially discusses how population issues have been incorporated in environmental and climate change analysis. It discusses the role of socioeconomic development and structural transformations in Brazil in shaping specific population vulnerability characteristics. These characteristics are further discussed in the context of demographic transition (and its impact on changing age structure) and population mobility and urban concentration; and how these changes will help to define the epidemiological profile of the population. In conclusion, the paper discusses the need for building strategies of regional planning which eliminates or minimizes vulnerabilities and their reproduction given the climate change and population transitions in the coming decades.O artigo discute inicialmente como as questões populacionais têm sido incorporadas à análise ambiental, e a sua evolução e conformação às discussões contemporâneas sobre as dimensões humanas das mudanças ambientais globais – particularmente às mudanças climáticas. É explicitado, nessa discussão, o papel do desenvolvimento socioeconômico e das transformações estruturais na sociedade brasileira na definição de situações específicas de vulnerabilidade populacional. Em seguida, a discussão de vulnerabilidade é predicada em termos da transição demográfica e seus impactos sobre a estrutura etária, da transição nas formas de mobilidade populacional e concentração em áreas urbanas, e de transições no perfil epidemiológico da população. O artigo conclui com uma discussão sobre a necessidade de uma lógica de planejamento regional que elimine ou minimize situações de vulnerabilidade e sua reprodução em função das mudanças climáticas e transições populacionais nas próximas décadas

Gender-specific out-migration, deforestation and urbanization in the Ecuadorian Amazon

The Ecuadorian Amazon, one of the richest reserves of biodiversity in the world, has faced one of the highest rates of deforestation of any Amazonian nation. Most of this forest elimination has been caused by agricultural colonization that followed the discovery of oil fields in 1967. Since the 1990s, an increasing process of urbanization has also engendered new patterns of population mobility within the Amazon, along with traditional ways by which rural settlers make their living. However, while very significant in its effects on deforestation, urbanization and regional development, population mobility within the Amazon has hardly been studied at all, as well as the distinct migration patterns between men and women. This paper uses a longitudinal dataset of 250 farm households in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon to understand differentials between men and women migrants to urban and rural destinations and between men and women non-migrants. First, we use hazard analysis based on the Kaplan–Meier (KM) estimator to obtain the cumulative probability that an individual living in the study area in 1990 or at time t, will out-migrated at some time, t+n, before 1999. Results indicate that out-migration to other rural areas in the Amazon, especially pristine areas is considerably greater than out-migration to the growing, but still incipient, Amazonian urban areas. Furthermore, men are more likely to out-migrate to rural areas than women, while the reverse occurs for urban areas. Difference-of-means tests were employed to examine potential factors accounting for differentials between male and female out-migration to urban and rural areas. Among the key results, relative to men younger women are more likely to out-migrate to urban areas; more difficult access from farms to towns and roads constrains women’s migration; and access to new lands in the Amazon–an important cause of further deforestation–is more associated with male out-migration. Economic factors such as engagement in on-farm work, increasing resource scarcity–measured by higher population density at the farm and reduction in farm land on forest and crops–and increase in pasture land are more associated with male out-migration to rural areas. On the other hand, increasing resource scarcity, higher population density and weaker migration networks are more associated with female out-migration to urban areas. Thus, a “vicious cycle” is created: Pressure over land leads to deforestation in most or all farm forest areas and reduces the possibilities for further agricultural extensification (deforestation); out-migration, especially male out-migration, occurs to other rural or forest areas in the Amazon (with women being more likely to choose urban destinations); and, giving continuing population growth and pressures in the new settled areas, new pressures promote further out-migration to rural destinations and unabated deforestation

Vulnerabilidade à seca e (i)mobilidade no Nordeste brasileiro: partir ou resistir?

Based on a survey with 1,064 households in the Seridó Potiguar, in the Brazilian northeastern Semiarid region, this paper discusses how individuals adjust mobility responses when they perceive the impacts of droughts on their livelihoods. Our results show that short-term responses are more common with daily or seasonal mobility in relation to permanent residence change. We also observe a greater female participation in these types of mobility, probably due to its shorter distance. Cash transfer programs show great relevance in this process, supporting families without emigrants or subsidizing the emigration of at least one resident. Finally, we conclude that migration and/or labor supply in urban areas have been important strategies for families to deal with the risk, which requires strong institutions to manage the potential negative impacts on the destination regions of these individuals.Baseado em um survey com 1.064 domicílios do Seridó potiguar, região do semiárido nordestino, este trabalho discute como os indivíduos ajustam respostas de mobilidade ao perceberem os impactos das estiagens sobre os meios de subsistência. Nossos resultados mostram respostas usualmente de curto prazo envolvendo mobilidade cotidiana ou sazonal em relação à mudança permanente de residência. Também foi possível observar maior participação feminina nesses tipos de mobilidade, o que indica associação com o seu caráter de curta distância. Os programas sociais mostraram grande relevância nesse processo, com a possibilidade de duplo efeito: apoiando famílias sem emigrantes ou subsidiando a emigração de pelo menos um morador. Por fim, conclui-se que a migração e/ou a oferta de trabalho nos espaços urbanos foram ferramentas importantes para as famílias lidarem com o risco ambiental, o que requer instituições fortalecidas para gerenciar os potenciais impactos negativos para as regiões de destino desses indivíduos

Projeção Demográfica De Pequenas Áreas Integrada A Projeções Econômicas: Um Estudo De Caso A Partir De Cenários De Migração Na Região Do Alto Paraopeba, Minas Gerais

This paper proposes a methodology to project population growth for small areas facing high economic growth rates. It is used as case study the Alto Paraopeba Valley in Brazil, a region which will face high growth rates in the following two decades due to investments in mining and in the steel industry. These economic changes will bring high employment generation and thus affect the demographic dynamics in the region, particularly through high in-migration rates, and will change urban and regional development patterns, particularly by imposing further pressures on the already fragile infrastructure (e.g., water supply, sanitation, transportation system and housing) and social services (health, education). We propose a methodology which belongs to a set of projection techniques known as “ratio methods” which aims to forecast pressures from population growth, at the region al and municipal levels, and which is sensible to incorporate employment scenarios. The results will be interpreted at light of the literature on the linkages between demographic dynamics, economic growth and development. In particular, we discuss the need to improve methodologies in demographic analysis which incorporate economic scenarios and their impacts on migration, the population component most sensible to varying regional economic scenarios.O objetivo principal desse trabalho é discutir uma proposta de projeção demográfica para pequenas áreas a partir de cenários de crescimento econômico em que a migração e pendularidade do trabalho são, no curto e médio prazo, os elementos mais importantes da dinâmica demográfica regional. Utiliza-se como estudo de caso a região do Alto Paraopeba em Minas Gerais, que contará, em um período de quinze anos, com grandes investimentos no setor minero-siderúrgico. Os efeitos resultantes desses investimentos, particularmente em termos de geração de empregos, serão traduzidos em mudanças demográficas, com a ampliação da imigração e, por conseguinte, do crescimento populacional. Os investimentos também alterarão o padrão de desenvolvimento regional e impõem aos planejadores o desafio de atender a população crescente com serviços e infra-estrutura. Como forma de investigar esses cenários, é discutida uma metodologia de projeção para a região e seus municípios a partir de técnicas sensíveis a mudanças econômicas. Para essa finalidade, será discutida a utilidade de uma técnicas de projeção de pequenas áreas que faz parte de um conjunto de técnicas conhecidas como ratio methods. O artigo propõe ainda uma discussão, a partir da literatura, sobre as relações entre dinâmica populacional, crescimento econômico e planejamento regional, a qual servirá de suporte para a interpretação e discussão dos resultados do estudo de caso. Em particular, discute-se a necessidade de aprimorar as metodologias em estudos demográficos de forma a incluir técnicas mais sensíveis à migração, componente demográfico que responde mais rapidamente a variações econômicas regionais

Migration Within the Frontier: The Second Generation Colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Since the 1970s, migration to the Amazon has led to a growing human presence and resulting dramatic changes in the physical landscape of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon frontier, including considerable deforestation. Over time, a second demographic phenomenon has emerged with the children of the original migrants leaving settler farms to set out on their own. The vast majority have remained in the Amazon region, some contributing to further changes in land use via rural-rural migration to establish new farms and others to incipient urbanization. This paper uses longitudinal, multi-scale data on settler colonists between 1990 and 1999 to analyze rural-rural and rural-urban migration among second-generation colonists within the region. Following a description of migrants and settlers in terms of their individual, household and community characteristics, a multinomial discrete-time hazard model is used to estimate the determinants of out-migration of the second generation settlers to both urban and rural areas. We find significant differences in the determinants of migration to the two types of destinations in personal characteristics, human capital endowments, stage of farm and household lifecycles, migration networks, and access to community resources and infrastructure. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications of migrants' choice of rural versus urban destinations

Migração: uma revisão sobre algumas das principais teorias

This paper presents some of the main theories on migration, which are subdivided into microlevel theories and macro-level theories. As a conclusion, it followed that no theory in itself is able to cover all distinct aspects of a complex phenomenon such as migration. The combination of theoretical approaches is seen as the most efficient way to analyze the migration.migration, migration theories, macro-level theories, micro-level theories

O cerrado brasileiro: notas para estudo

This paper presents a short literature review on the Brazilian Cerrado, with emphasis on the following aspects: (1) characterization of the area, (2) environmental degradation and population occupation, (3) history of regional occupation (4) role of immigration; the use of technology; and the land market.Brazilian Cerrado, literature review, environment, inmigration