Microdemography and the environment: household composition and lifecycles mediating livelihoods, deforestation and land use in the Amazon

Deforestation, poverty, land conflicts and the expansion of infrastructure and economic activities in the Amazon have increased concerned about the fate of the largest and more biodiverse forest in the world. Few studies however have investigated the role of the household demographic dynamics on these landscape changes and over the wellbeing of Amazonian populations. Nonetheless, complex patterns of demographic and socioeconomic change reflect a diversity of factors such as globalization, expansion of international market-oriented activities, infrastructure building and migration networks. This paper uses a microlevel approach to show how demographic change mediates farm household transitions over the lifecycles as well as livelihoods composition over distinct stages of frontier development. We review the extant literature to propose a theoretical framework of microdemography of rural and frontier areas, and test it based upon an empirical analysis of a twenty-five years panel of plots and households in the municipality of Machadinho, Brazilian Amazon. I use descriptive and multivariate statistics (Principal Components Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression) and land use classification to identify profiles of demographic composition and lifecycles over stages of frontier development, and associate them with specific household strategies and combinations capitals (human, financial, physical, natural and social) which define household livelihoods. The results provide evidences to advance a theoretical a framework integrating a set of theories focusing at the household level and which unveil how demographic dynamics (specifically in terms of household composition and lifecycles) mediates livelihoods, including land use changes and deforestation, over the development stages of frontier development

Un análisis multinivel de población y deforestación en el Parque Nacional Sierra de Lacandón (Petén, Guatemala)

Este estudio examina los factores demográficos asociados con la deforestación en el Parque Nacional Sierra de Lacandón (PNSL), Guatemala, utilizando un análisis de regresión multinivel. Más del 10% del PNSL ha sido deforestado desde mediados de la década de 1980, a causa del crecimiento demográfico de la población campesina y su subsiguiente manejo de la tierra. Utilizando un análisis de regresión múltiple de dos niveles, este estudio examina datos demográficos y otras características de los hogares para explicar variaciones en el bosque roturado entre 241 fincas agrícolas en ocho comunidades en el PNSL. Esta metodología, novedosa en el estudio de uso del suelo en los trópicos, toma en cuenta la variación espacial entre comunidades, así como entre hogares. Al usar modelos de multinivel, se puede llegar a resultados mejores sobre los impactos de los factores, tanto a nivel de comunidad como a nivel de hogar sobre la deforestación, con implicaciones más adecuadas para políticas de desarrollo.Aquest estudi examina els factors demogràfics associats amb la desforestació al Parc Nacional Sierra de Lacandon (PNSL), Guatemala, mitjançant una anàlisi de regressió multinivell. Més del 10 % del PNSL ha estat desforestat des de la meitat de la dècada de 1980, com a conseqüència del creixement demogràfic i les pràctiques de gestió agrícola. Utilitzant una anàlisi de regressió múltiple de dos nivells, aquest estudi examina dades demogràfiques i unes altres característiques de les llars per explicar variacions en el bosc artigat entre 241 finques agrícoles en vuit comunitats al PNSL. Aquesta metodologia té en compte la variació especial entre comunitats i entre llars, i abans no havia estat mai aplicada als tròpics. El model de regressió multinivell pot ajudar a explicar millor els impactes de factors propis de les comunitats i de les llars en la desforestació, per tant, pot contribuir a millorar les polítiques de desenvolupament.Cette étude a examiné les facteurs démographiques associés au phénomène de déforestation du Parc National Sierra de Lacandón (PNSL, Guatemala) en utilisant une analyse de régression multi-niveau. Depuis le milieu des années 1980, plus de 10 % du PNSL a été déboisé par la croissance démographique de la population rurale, son besoin en surface et l'utilisation variée de la terre. En utilisant une analyse de régression multiple de deux niveaux, cette étude examine des données démographiques et plusieurs caractéristiques liées aux exploitations, dans le but d'expliquer les variations dans le parc défriché entre 241 propriétés agricoles dans huit communautés du PNSL. Cette méthodologie, nouvelle dans l'étude de l'usage du sol dans les tropiques, prend en compte la variation spatiale entre des communautés ainsi que des exploitations. En utilisant ces modèles de multi-niveaux, on peut arriver à de meilleurs résultats concernant les impacts des facteurs au niveau des communautés et des exploitations concernant la déforestation, avec des résultats plus adapatées pour les politiques de développement.The paper examines depopulation factors associated with deforestation in the Natural park of the Sierra de Lacandón (PNSL), using multi-level regresión analysis. More than 10 percent of the park area has been deforested since the mid 1980s because of rural population growth and agricultural practices. By means of a two-level regression analysis the study use dem ographic and other household data to explain variations in deforested land in 241 agricultural estates in 8 communities of the PNSL. The methodology, not applied before in the tropics, takes into account spatial variations between communities and households. Multilvel regression allows for better results on the impacts of socioeconomic factors on deforestation, both at the community and at the household levels with important implications for development policies

Migração: uma revisão sobre algumas das principais teorias

This paper presents some of the main theories on migration, which are subdivided into microlevel theories and macro-level theories. As a conclusion, it followed that no theory in itself is able to cover all distinct aspects of a complex phenomenon such as migration. The combination of theoretical approaches is seen as the most efficient way to analyze the migration.migration, migration theories, macro-level theories, micro-level theories

O cerrado brasileiro: notas para estudo

This paper presents a short literature review on the Brazilian Cerrado, with emphasis on the following aspects: (1) characterization of the area, (2) environmental degradation and population occupation, (3) history of regional occupation (4) role of immigration; the use of technology; and the land market.Brazilian Cerrado, literature review, environment, inmigration

Linking migration, climate and social protection in Brazilian semiarid: case studies of Submédio São Francisco and Seridó Potiguar

Over the known history of Brazilian sertões migration has been recorded as a human response to drought episodes. Social protection policies beginning around 2003 had dramatically diminished poverty rates and, within this context, migration changed compared to other periods, becoming more heterogeneous and diffuse. The article aims to explore the link between drought, migration and social protection in the Brazilian semiarid region based upon the analysis and conceptual discussion about two case studies: Submédio São Francisco and Seridó Potiguar. In contrast with the past, actual migration holds an indirect relation to climate. Public policy softened the impacts of the climate over livelihoods and changed the coping strategies. In this sense, mobility outside the semi-arid was not a strategy to survive. Yet, the role of the state in the preceding decades and the region’s historical path – inseparable from its climate – drew persistent migration flows that still reverberate in present dynamics.  Ao longo da história dos sertões, a migração foi registrada como resposta humana a episódios de seca. Políticas de proteção social iniciadas nos anos 2003 diminuíram drasticamente as taxas de pobreza, ao passo que a migração mudou comparada a outros períodos, tornando-se mais heterogênea e difusa. O artigo visa explorar o nexo entre secas, migrações e proteção social na região, baseado na análise e discussão conceitual em torno de dois estudos de caso: o Submédio São Francisco e o Seridó Potiguar. Em contraste com o passado, a migração do presente tem uma relação indireta com o clima. Políticas públicas moderaram os impactos do clima sobre os meios de vida e estratégias. Portanto, deixar o semiárido não seria mais uma estratégia de sobrevivência. Ainda assim, o papel do estado nas décadas anteriores e a trajetória histórica da região – inseparável do clima – desenhou fluxos migratórios persistentes que ainda reverberam no presente.

Transições populacionais e vulnerabilidade às mudanças climáticas no Brasil

The paper initially discusses how population issues have been incorporated in environmental and climate change analysis. It discusses the role of socioeconomic development and structural transformations in Brazil in shaping specific population vulnerability characteristics. These characteristics are further discussed in the context of demographic transition (and its impact on changing age structure) and population mobility and urban concentration; and how these changes will help to define the epidemiological profile of the population. In conclusion, the paper discusses the need for building strategies of regional planning which eliminates or minimizes vulnerabilities and their reproduction given the climate change and population transitions in the coming decades.O artigo discute inicialmente como as questões populacionais têm sido incorporadas à análise ambiental, e a sua evolução e conformação às discussões contemporâneas sobre as dimensões humanas das mudanças ambientais globais – particularmente às mudanças climáticas. É explicitado, nessa discussão, o papel do desenvolvimento socioeconômico e das transformações estruturais na sociedade brasileira na definição de situações específicas de vulnerabilidade populacional. Em seguida, a discussão de vulnerabilidade é predicada em termos da transição demográfica e seus impactos sobre a estrutura etária, da transição nas formas de mobilidade populacional e concentração em áreas urbanas, e de transições no perfil epidemiológico da população. O artigo conclui com uma discussão sobre a necessidade de uma lógica de planejamento regional que elimine ou minimize situações de vulnerabilidade e sua reprodução em função das mudanças climáticas e transições populacionais nas próximas décadas

Biodiversidade, população e economia: uma região de mata atlântica [Biodiversity, Population, and Economy: a region of atlantic forest]

Minas Gerais; Rio Doce; mata atlântica; atlantic forest; sustainable development; conservation; regional development; environment

Biodiversidade, população e economia: uma região de mata atlântica [Biodiversity, Population, and Economy: a region of atlantic forest]

Minas Gerais; Rio Doce; mata atlântica; atlantic forest; sustainable development; conservation; regional development; environment