Empirical Methods for Modeling Landscape Change, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

LAND-USE CHANGE AND CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN THE FORESTS OF OHIO, INDIANA, AND ILLINOIS: SENSITIVITY TO POPULATION AND MODEL CHOICE

This study develops a model of land use change in the Midwestern States of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Given the emergence of spatial econometrics, three models are compared to assess the sensitivity of the estimates to alternative assumptions about the distribution of their errors. Projections of future land use change are then developed, and the results are compared across different assumptions about population growth and models. We then estimate carbon sequestration potential in the region and compare the costs of different programs across the population assumptions and the alternative models. Different assumptions about population growth and error terms do not appear to affect the carbon sequestration cost estimates.Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

IMPACTS OF INCORPORATING LAND EXCHANGES BETWEEN FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE IN SECTOR MODELS

The forest and agriculture sectors are linked by having a portion of their land bases suitable for use in either sector. A substantial part of the southern land base is suitable for either forestry or agriculture use, with most of forestation on U.S. agriculture land in the South. We examine how land exchanges between forestry and agriculture are influenced by specific federal conservation and farm support policies, including changes in the Conservation Reserve Program. Reallocation of land is a significant part of the sectors' responses to the policies, along with intensification of timber management on existing southern forests.Agriculture, Conservation, Forest sector, Land use, Projections, Land Economics/Use,

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOUTHERN FORESTS

A multiperiod regional mathematical programming model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the southern U.S. forestry sector. Scenarios for forest biological response to climate change are developed for small and large changes in forest growth rates. Resulting changes in timber supply have economic impacts on producers and consumers in forest products markets, both nationally and regionally. Conclusions include outer dimensions of global climate change impacts and potential effects of smaller biological responses on the forestry sector both nationally and in the U.S. South. Relative impacts are found to be larger for producers than for consumers, and southern producers experience relatively greater changes in economic welfare.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Agriculture Afforestation for Carbon Sequestration Under Carbon Markets in the United States: Leakage Behavior from Regional Allowance Programs

This study quantifies how leakage behavior from afforesting agricultural land affects the intensification of agricultural production. In particular, we examine the leakage percentage from carbon offset allowance at specific southern regions in the United States as a part of a carbon market. We use the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model-Greenhouse Gases model to examine responses between sectors as part of the regional afforestation policy analysis. Regional characteristics and a policy's time frame are found to play important roles in achieving net gains, in terms of greenhouse gases stored, from such regional policies. In some cases, however, leakage greater than 100% is evident.Keywords: leakage, economics, Agricultural afforestation, carbon market

Permanence of agricultural afforestation for carbon sequestration under stylized carbon markets in the U.S.

This paper examines the permanence of agricultural land afforestation under stylized carbon markets at the regional level in the US. Attention is focused on Southern and Midwest regions which historically have experienced a relatively large amount of land-use change between the agriculture and forest sectors. The Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model–Greenhouse Gases model is used to examine responses between sectors as part of the regional afforestation policy analysis. Main findings suggest that most of afforested area in the Midwest regions remains unharvested by mid-21th century but a significant percentage of afforested area in the Southern regions shifts back to agricultural uses by this time. We also simulated a policy where carbon sequestration credits paid for afforestation are reduced 40% relative to other mitigation actions. A permanence value reduction for afforestation further promotes the harvesting of afforested stands in the Southern regions. Also, it has an impact not only on grassland pasture but also on high productive cropland. Results of this analysis are robust to lower permanence value reduction rates for higher carbon prices and can serve as upper bound of impacts for lower carbon prices.Keywords: Permanence, Carbon markets, Agricultural afforestation, Economic

Management of non-industrial private forest lands : survey results from western Oregon and Washington owners

Oregon State University researchers conducted a survey in 1994 of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) landowners in western Oregon and western Washington. Private forests provide valuable ecological services, such as fish and wildlife habitat, and are also partially filling the gap created by recent reductions in federal timber harvest in the region. The purpose of the study was to assess demographic characteristics, timber management practices, harvest decisions, attitudes toward government regulation, and the use of government assistance by NIPF landowners in western Oregon and western Washington. NIPF owners are a very heterogenous class with diverse objectives, ranging from timber production to the enjoyment of owning "green space". Most of the owners surveyed had harvested timber from their land and had used a variety of methods, including clearcuts (28%) and thinnings and other partial cuts (60%). A majority (68%) said they would alter the amount and timing of their harvest if it were necessary to maintain a healthy ecosystem. However, most owners would not be willing to give up their right to harvest timber altogether, even if offered a tax incentive. Many of the results differed between owners of large acreages and owners of small acreages

Past and projected rural land conversion in the US at state, regional, and national levels

The developed land area of the US increased by 14.2 million hectares between 1982 and 2003. Along with a projected US population increase to more than 360 million individuals by 2030 is an expected continuation of expanding rural land development. Related to population growth, rural land development and the associated loss of rural open space are expected to have a number of social, economic, and ecological implications. To gain greater insight into land development patterns, we used US Census Bureau and National Resources Inventory data to quantify per-housing-unit rates of land development during recent decades and to model future land development to 2030 for states and regions in the US. Based on these data, 0.50 ha of additional land were developed for each additional housing unit in the US. The numbers of hectares of newly developed land per additional housing unit were greatest in the South Central and Great Plains regions and least in the Pacific Coast and Rocky Mountain regions of the country. Combining population projections and trends in people per housing unit with development indices, we projected that developed area in the US will increase by 22 million hectares between 2003 and 2030, with the greatest absolute increases projected to occur in the Southeast and South Central regions of the US. We used sensitivity analysis to examine the impacts of changes in population migration patterns and per housing unit development patterns on increases in projected developed area

Economic Modeling of Effects of Climate Change on the Forest Sector and Mitigation Options: A Compendium of Briefing Papers

This report is a compilation of six briefing papers based on literature reviews and syntheses, prepared for U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service policy analysts and decisionmakers about specific questions pertaining to climate change. The main topics addressed here are economic effects on the forest sector at the national and global scales, costs of forest carbon sequestration as part of mitigation strategies, and mitigation aspects for nonindustrial private and public forest ownerships in the U.S. forest sector. Salient findings from the literature are summarized in the synthesis of the literature, along with identified research needs