Bayesian Modeling of Dynamic Behavioral Change During an Epidemic

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling efforts, making these models less useful than they could be. We address this by introducing a novel class of data-driven epidemic models which characterize and accurately estimate behavioral change. Our proposed model allows time-varying transmission to be captured by the level of "alarm" in the population, with alarm specified as a function of the past epidemic trajectory. We investigate the estimability of the population alarm across a wide range of scenarios, applying both parametric functions and non-parametric functions using splines and Gaussian processes. The model is set in the data-augmented Bayesian framework to allow estimation on partially observed epidemic data. The benefit and utility of the proposed approach is illustrated through applications to data from real epidemics.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figure

Identification and Characterization of Nitrogen Fixing Bacteria Associated with Kudzu Root Nodules

Pueraria montana, better known as kudzu, is an invasive species rapidly spreading throughout the southeastern United States. This plant can form root nodules which house nitrogen-fixing bacteria, allowing atmospheric nitrogen to be converted into biologically available forms of nitrogen for use by the plant host. Given the centrality of these bacteria to the spread of kudzu, isolates from nodules were characterized after collection from seven different locations across the metropolitan Atlanta area. Twenty-five isolates were grown on two different variants of nitrogen free media. Four different carbon sources were evaluated as well. Finally, growth under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions was investigated. Almost all isolates grew better under anaerobic conditions. Additionally, the carbon source and other components of the composition of the media affected growth. These data suggest significant metabolic diversity inside a relatively small geographic area posing questions about the relative contribution of nitrogen fixing bacteria to kudzu’s invasive expansion in this region. In addition, four possible “promiscuous ineffective” isolates were identified using data evaluating relative growth, possibly reflecting reduced nitrogen fixation and corresponding benefit to the host. The kudzu can be described as “promiscuous ineffective” because it allows nodulation of bacteria that have very poor nitrogen fixing capabilities. Two sequences, 16S rRNA and the gene nifD, were amplified from these four isolates. The 16S rRNA sequence reveals minor evolutionary diversity amongst isolates. Analysis of nifD reveals variations between isolates and some correspondence with an ability to fix nitrogen. With these data, further characterization of the “promiscuous ineffective” isolates may reveal the mechanism of reduced fixation rates and provide insight into possible bioremediation of kudzu

Identification and Characterization of Cannabichromene\u27s Major Metabolite Following Incubation with Human Liver Microsomes

Cannabichromene (CBC) is a minor cannabinoid within the array of over 120 cannabinoids identified in the Cannabis sativa plant. While CBC does not comprise a significant portion of whole plant material, it is available to the public in a purified and highly concentrated form. As minor cannabinoids become more popular due to their potential therapeutic properties, it becomes crucial to elucidate their metabolism in humans. Therefore, the goal of this was study to identify the major CBC phase I-oxidized metabolite generated in vitro following incubation with human liver microsomes. The novel metabolite structure was identified as 2′-hydroxycannabicitran using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Following the identification, in silico molecular modeling experiments were conducted and predicted 2′-hydroxycannabicitran to fit in the orthosteric site of both the CB1 and CB2 receptors. When tested in vitro utilizing a competitive binding assay, the metabolite did not show significant binding to either the CB1 or CB2 receptors. Further work necessitates the determination of potential activity of CBC and the here-identified phase I metabolite in other non-cannabinoid receptors

Understanding factors associated with the translation of cardiovascular research: A multinational case study approach

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Funders of health research increasingly seek to understand how best to allocate resources in order to achieve maximum value from their funding. We built an international consortium and developed a multinational case study approach to assess benefits arising from health research. We used that to facilitate analysis of factors in the production of research that might be associated with translating research findings into wider impacts, and the complexities involved. Methods: We built on the Payback Framework and expanded its application through conducting co-ordinated case studies on the payback from cardiovascular and stroke research in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. We selected a stratified random sample of projects from leading medical research funders. We devised a series of innovative steps to: minimize the effect of researcher bias; rate the level of impacts identified in the case studies; and interrogate case study narratives to identify factors that correlated with achieving high or low levels of impact. Results: Twenty-nine detailed case studies produced many and diverse impacts. Over the 15 to 20 years examined, basic biomedical research has a greater impact than clinical research in terms of academic impacts such as knowledge production and research capacity building. Clinical research has greater levels of wider impact on health policies, practice, and generating health gains. There was no correlation between knowledge production and wider impacts. We identified various factors associated with high impact. Interaction between researchers and practitioners and the public is associated with achieving high academic impact and translation into wider impacts, as is basic research conducted with a clinical focus. Strategic thinking by clinical researchers, in terms of thinking through pathways by which research could potentially be translated into practice, is associated with high wider impact. Finally, we identified the complexity of factors behind research translation that can arise in a single case. Conclusions: We can systematically assess research impacts and use the findings to promote translation. Research funders can justify funding research of diverse types, but they should not assume academic impacts are proxies for wider impacts. They should encourage researchers to consider pathways towards impact and engage potential research users in research processes. © 2014 Wooding et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.RAND Europe and HERG, with subsequent funding from the NHFA, the HSFC and the CIHR. This research was also partially supported by the Policy Research Programme in the English Department of Health

Pediatric Cushing disease: disparities in disease severity and outcomes in the Hispanic and African-American populations.

BackgroundLittle is known about the contribution of racial and socioeconomic disparities to severity and outcomes in children with Cushing disease (CD).MethodsA total of 129 children with CD, 45 Hispanic/Latino or African-American (HI/AA) and 84 non-Hispanic White (non-HW), were included in this study. A 10-point index for rating severity (CD severity) incorporated the degree of hypercortisolemia, glucose tolerance, hypertension, anthropomorphic measurements, disease duration, and tumor characteristics. Race, ethnicity, age, gender, local obesity prevalence, estimated median income, and access to care were assessed in regression analyses of CD severity.ResultsThe mean CD severity in the HI/AA group was worse than that in the non-HW group (4.9±2.0 vs. 4.1±1.9, P=0.023); driving factors included higher cortisol levels and larger tumor size. Multiple regression models confirmed that race (P=0.027) and older age (P=0.014) were the most important predictors of worse CD severity. When followed up a median of 2.3 years after surgery, the relative risk for persistent CD combined with recurrence was 2.8 times higher in the HI/AA group compared with that in the non-HW group (95% confidence interval: 1.2-6.5).ConclusionOur data show that the driving forces for the discrepancy in severity of CD are older age and race/ethnicity. Importantly, the risk for persistent and recurrent CD was higher in minority children

Shifting attention in viewer- and object-based reference frames after unilateral brain injury

The aims of the present study were to investigate the respective roles that object- and viewer-based reference frames play in reorienting visual attention, and to assess their influence after unilateral brain injury. To do so, we studied 16 right hemisphere injured (RHI) and 13 left hemisphere injured (LHI) patients. We used a cueing design that manipulates the location of cues and targets relative to a display comprised of two rectangles (i.e., objects). Unlike previous studies with patients, we presented all cues at midline rather than in the left or right visual fields. Thus, in the critical conditions in which targets were presented laterally, reorienting of attention was always from a midline cue. Performance was measured for lateralized target detection as a function of viewer-based (contra- and ipsilesional sides) and object-based (requiring reorienting within or between objects) reference frames. As expected, contralesional detection was slower than ipsilesional detection for the patients. More importantly, objects influenced target detection differently in the contralesional and ipsilesional fields. Contralesionally, reorienting to a target within the cued object took longer than reorienting to a target in the same location but in the uncued object. This finding is consistent with object-based neglect. Ipsilesionally, the means were in the opposite direction. Furthermore, no significant difference was found in object-based influences between the patient groups (RHI vs. LHI). These findings are discussed in the context of reference frames used in reorienting attention for target detection

Dynamical Mass Measurement of the Young Spectroscopic Binary V343 Normae AaAb Resolved With the Gemini Planet Imager

We present new spatially resolved astrometry and photometry from the Gemini Planet Imager of the inner binary of the young multiple star system V343 Normae, which is a member of the beta Pictoris moving group. V343 Normae comprises a K0 and mid-M star in a ~4.5 year orbit (AaAb) and a wide 10" M5 companion (B). By combining these data with archival astrometry and radial velocities we fit the orbit and measure individual masses for both components of M_Aa = 1.10 +/- 0.10 M_sun and M_Ab = 0.290 +/- 0.018 M_sun. Comparing to theoretical isochrones, we find good agreement for the measured masses and JHK band magnitudes of the two components consistent with the age of the beta Pic moving group. We derive a model-dependent age for the beta Pic moving group of 26 +/- 3 Myr by combining our results for V343 Normae with literature measurements for GJ 3305, which is another group member with resolved binary components and dynamical masses.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures. Accepted to A