The Decision-making Model for the Stock Market under Uncertainty

The main purpose of this research is developing methods and models of decision-making to assess the stock market state, and predict the possible changes in the RTS index value. This article shows that the analytical models for assessing the stock market state do not give reliable results. The absence of the reliable estimates associated with the high degree of uncertainty, random, nonlinear and non-stationary process with a significant degree of aftereffect. In this paper, to formalize the securities market parameters it’s proposed the fuzzy sets method. To assess the stock market current state and make decisions the fuzzy situational analysis model (situational model) is applied. The analytical prediction results of the stock market and graph of the RTS index expected return changes in 2014-2016 are showed. The model of calculating the fuzzy inference rules truth degree to predict the RTS index is developed. The market parameters linguistic definition is given and the expert’s rules construction to predict the RTS index growth is shown. The program in Matlab environment is designed to perform research. The study result showed that the model allows for the RTS index prediction in the condition of incomplete initial data with a confidence level about 90%

Stable-Isotope and Trace Element Time Series from Fedchenko Glacier (Pamirs) Snow/Firn Cores

In summer 2005, two pilot snow/firn cores were obtained at 5365 and 5206 m a.s.l. on Fedchenko glacier, Pamirs, Tajikistan, the world\u27s longest and deepest alpine glacier. The well-defined seasonal layering appearing in stable-isotope and trace element distribution identified the physical links controlling the climate and aerosol concentration signals. Air temperature and humidity/precipitation were the primary determinants of stable-isotope ratios. Most precipitation over the Pamirs originated in the Atlantic. In summer, water vapor was re-evaporated from semi-arid regions in central Eurasia. The semi-arid regions contribute to non-soluble aerosol loading in snow accumulated on Fedchenko glacier. In the Pamir core, concentrations of rare earth elements, major and other elements were less than those in the Tien Shan but greater than those in Antarctica, Greenland, the Alps and the Altai. The content of heavy metals in the Fedchenko cores is 2-14 times lower than in the Altai glaciers. Loess from Afghan-Tajik deposits is the predominant lithogenic material transported to the Pamirs. Trace elements generally showed that aerosol concentration tended to increase on the windward slopes during dust storms but tended to decrease with altitude under clear conditions. The trace element profile documented one of the most severe droughts in the 20th century

THE MODEL OF DUST AEROSOL ACCUMULATION IN TAJIKISTAN

The thickest loess formations, more than 100 m, are located in China and Tajikistan. Climatic and geographical factors became the basis for development of the atmospheric aerosol accumulation model in Tajikistan. Dust originated from huge deserts of the Central Asia is transported by western winds to valleys of Tajikistan where it drops out forming loess sediments. According to calculations the average thickness of dust sediments is 0,2 mm/year. This value agrees to the records obtained from loess section of the Early Holocene. Comparison of the modelling results and the real data from loess sections proves good correlation between these two independent approaches. It is one of the arguments supporting the concept of loess formation due to atmospheric aerosol

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER POTENTIAL OF THE PAMIR MOUNTAINS

The Pamir region supplies water for most countries of the Central Asia. Discussions and arguments with regard to reduction of water resources related to climate change are popular today among various governmental and international institutions being a greatconcern for modern society. Probable decrease of the Pamirs runoff will affect downstreamcountries that can face water deficiency. However, there is no scientific rationale behindsuch disputes. The Pamir region is a remote, high-mountainous and hard-to-access area with scarce observation network and no reliable data. It is not sufficiently investigated in order to perform any assessment of climate change. This article represents results of study of climate parameters change (such as temperature, precipitation and river discharge) in the Pamirs. The study area covers all countries included in this mountain region (Tajikistan, China, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan). Observation records, remote sensing data and GIS modeling were used in the present work. Chronological data series were divided into two equal time intervals and were treated as climatic periods. Further analysis of climate change helped to estimate its influence on change of water potential in the Pamirs. The paper considers issues of liquid and solid precipitation change in the study area