The Forecasting Ability of Money Market Fund Managers and its Economic Value

The model proposed by Merton(1981) to determine the value of forecasting ability is adapted to investigate whether money market fund managers successfully anticipate changes in the yield curve by adjusting the average maturity of their portfolios in the right direction. The potential economic value of such behavior is assessed, and it is shown that if the portfolios of all money market funds were aggregated it would appear that managers are good forecasters even if individually they possess insignifcant forecasting ability. At the same time, the economic value of the aggregate portfolio will be diminished because of the reduced net change in average maturity. Thus, diversifying into many money market funds will not attain the gain that could be realized if an individual manager had a forecasting ability equal to the quality of the average forecast.A sample of 34 money market funds is investigated. Analysis suggests that a small fraction of the funds exhibited forecasting skills, but even they generated negligible economic value because the changes in their portfolios average maturity were too small.There appears to be no relationship between forecasting ability and economic success of money market funds as measured by asset size and growth.

Earnings and Dividend Announcements is there a Corroboration Effect?

We examine abnormal stock returns surrounding contemporaneous earnings and dividend announcements in order to determine whether investors evaluate the two announcements in relation to each other.We find that there is a statistically significant interaction effect.The abnormal return corresponding to any earnings or dividend announcement depends upon the value of the other announcement. This evidence suggests the existence of a corroborative relationship between the two announcements. Investors give more credence to unanticipated dividend increases or decreases when earnings are also above or below expectations, and vice versa.

Solar flare gamma-ray spectroscopy with CGRO-COMPTEL

The X-ray and gamma-ray emission from solar flares provides important information about high-energy particles in solar flares. Energetic protons and ions interact with the solar atmosphere, giving rise to nuclear line emission at MeV energies and higher energy photons from the decay of neutral and charged pions. Electrons interact with the solar atmosphere producing a bremsstrahlung continuum. The solar flare spectrum is generally a superposition of these spectra with nuclear line emission dominating from ∼1--8 MeV and the bremsstrahlung at lower and higher energies. The main goal of this thesis has been to explain a small part of a gamma-ray flare observed by COMPTEL in June 1991. A difficult interval to explain in the 11 June 1991 solar flare is the Intermediate (Rank 1997) or Interphase (Murphy and Share 1999; Dunphy et al. 1999) immediately following the peak of the impulsive phase. All three analyses of this flare using COMPTEL, OSSE and EGRET data yielded a hard proton spectrum with a power law index around 2 using the 2.2 to 4.44 MeV fluence ratio. This hard of a spectrum would indicate the presence of a high-energy component above eight MeV and emission due to spallation products. However, none of the three instruments observed such a component. We discuss the standard techniques used in solar flare spectral deconvolution and introduce a new technique we use with the COMPTEL observations. This work presented the explanation that the proton spectrum is soft during this interval of the 11 June 1991 solar flare based on this new analysis of the COMPTEL observations. This means that the region of 2.223/4--7 MeV fluence space is largely unexplored for soft proton spectra. The use of this ratio must be reexamined for proton spectra with indices greater than 5 or 6. We then applied a model we developed for the transport of neutrons created from a soft proton spectrum to determine the photospheric 3He abundance during this flare. We calculated a 3He/H ratio of 8.7e-05 with a 1 a range of 1.96e-04 to 1.75e-05 for this flare using this new model. This is larger than all previous values reported. In addition, we presented an additional flare observation from COMPTEL. In response to a BACODINE cosmic gamma-ray burst alert, COMPTEL on the CGRO recorded gamma rays above 1 MeV from the C4 flare at 0221 UT 20 January 2000. This event, though at the limits of COMPTEL\u27s sensitivity, clearly shows a nuclear line excess above the continuum. Using new spectroscopy techniques we were able to resolve individual lines. This allowed us to make a basic comparison of this event with the GRL (gamma ray line) flare distribution from SMM and also compare this flare with a well-observed large GRL flare seen by OSSE. We showed this flare is normal, i.e., it is a natural extension of the SMM distribution of flares. The analysis of this flare means there is no evidence for a lower flare size for proton acceleration. Protons even in small flares contain a large part of the accelerated particle energy

Mapping olive varieties and within-field spatial variability using high resolution QuickBird imagery

[Abstract]: The growth of the Australian olive (Olea europaea L.) industry requires support from research to ensure its profitability and sustainability. To contribute to this goal, our project tested the ability of remote sensing imagery to map olive groves and their attributes. Specifically, this study aimed to: (a) discriminate olives varieties; and to (b) detect and interpret within-field spatial variability. Using high spatial resolution (2.8m) QuickBird multispectral imagery acquired over Yallamundi (southeast Queensland) on 24 December 2003, both visual interpretation and statistical (divergence) measures were employed to discriminate olive varieties. Similarly, the detection and interpretation of within-field spatial variability was conducted on enhanced false colour composite imagery, and confirmed by the use of statistical methods. Results showed that the two olive varieties (i.e. Kalamata and Frantoio) can be visually differentiated and mapped on the enhanced image based on texture. The spectral signature plots showed little difference in the mean spectral reflectance values, indicating that the two varieties have a very low spectral separability. In terms of within-field spatial variability, the presence or absence of Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) was detected using visual interpretation, corroborated by the results of quantitative statistical measures. Spatial variability in soil properties, caused by the presence of a patch of sandy soil, was also detected visually. Finally, the “imprint” of former cover-type or land-use prior to olive plantation establishment in 1998 was identified. More work is being done to develop image classification techniques for mapping within-field spatial variability in olive varieties, biomass and condition using hyperspectral image data, as well as interpreting the cause of observed variability

Embodied Listening Practices and Ruderal Ecologies

We propose embodied multisensory listening as a methodology of engaging with, and listening to, the complex multispecies relations of ruderal ecologies via our collaborative project in which we followed the path of the Line 3 petroleum oil sands pipeline from Edmonton, Alberta to Superior, Wisconsin in August 2022, enacting close engagement with the ruderal plant species that grow atop the overturned earth of this intercontinental site of colonial extractive infrastructure. Ruderal ecologies refer to the more-than-human constellations of life that form in human modified environments that are not purely conditional to any form of human action: even as certain human groups affect change to the earth both geologically and climatically through networked systems of extraction and exchange that span the Earth through colonialism and capitalism. Working from Nigerian feminist theorist Oyeronke Oyewumi proposal of the term “world-sense,” xwélmexw artist, curator and writer Dylan Robinson’s calls for multi-sensory listening, and Hsuan Hsu’s work on of olfactory art to confront us materially with the realities of environmental risk, we consider, can a methodology of embodied listening allow us to confront the living legacies of the ongoing colonial project of extractivism and imagine shared ruderal futures from a position of listening

Evidence of a Plasmoid-Looptop Interaction and Magnetic Inflows During a Solar Flare/CME Eruptive Event

Observational evidence is presented for the merging of a downward-propagating plasmoid with a looptop kernel during an occulted limb event on 2007 January 25. RHESSI lightcurves in the 9-18 keV energy range, as well as that of the 245 MHz channel of the Learmonth Solar Observatory, show enhanced nonthermal emission in the corona at the time of the merging suggesting that additional particle acceleration took place. This was attributed to a secondary episode of reconnection in the current sheet that formed between the two merging sources. RHESSI images were used to establish a mean downward velocity of the plasmoid of 12 km/s. Complementary observations from the SECCHI suite of instruments onboard STEREO-Behind showed that this process occurred during the acceleration phase of the associated CME. From wavelet-enhanced EUVI, images evidence of inflowing magnetic field lines prior to the CME eruption is also presented. The derived inflow velocity was found to be 1.5 km/s. This combination of observations supports a recent numerical simulation of plasmoid formation, propagation and subsequent particle acceleration due to the tearing mode instability during current sheet formation.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures, ApJ (Accepted