A hybrid model-based and memory-based short-term traffic prediction system

Short-term traffic forecasting capabilities on freeways and major arterials have received special attention in the past decade due primarily to their vital role in supporting various travelers\u27 trip decisions and traffic management functions. This research presents a hybrid model-based and memory-based methodology to improve freeway traffic prediction performance. The proposed methodology integrates both approaches to strengthen predictions under both recurrent and non-recurrent conditions. The model-based approach relies on a combination of static and dynamic neural network architectures to achieve optimal prediction performance under various input and traffic condition settings. Concurrently, the memory-based component is derived from the data archival system that encodes the commuters\u27 travel experience in the past. The outcomes of the two approaches are two prediction values for each query case. The two values are subsequently processed by a prediction query manager, which ultimately produces one final prediction value using an error-based decision algorithm. It was found that the hybrid approach produces speed estimates with smaller errors than if the two approaches employed separately. The proposed prediction approach could be used in deriving travel times more reliable as the Traffic Management Centers move towards implementing Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) applications

A stochastic mesoscopic cell-transmission model for operational analysis of large-scale transportation networks

The cell transmission model (CTM), developed by Daganzo in 1994 was not fully exploited as an operations model for analysis of large-scale traffic networks. Because of its macroscopic / mesoscopic features, CTM offers calibration and computational advantages over microscopic models. This study presents a series of enhancements to the original form of CTM. These enhancements show potential to increase the model’s accuracy and realism of traffic flow representation. For example, topological enhancements and modifications to the flow advancing equation are introduced to allow variable cell lengths and non-discrete movements of vehicles between cells. In addition, implementation of lane-changing behavioral logics and algorithmic enhancements to model vehicle flows at network junctions demonstrate potential in modeling realistic non-homogeneous traffic streams in CTM. A calibration exercise was conducted to account for randomness in driving behavior using vehicle trajectory data. This proves the models potential in modeling stochastic variations of real-life networks. A sample freeway network of I-10 corridor in Baton Rouge was used to evaluate and compare the performance of the improved version of CTM versus CORSIM. The simulation results showed comparable performance of both platforms in terms of link occupancy (density) and total network travel time and demonstrate the potential of employing CTM in traffic operations applications

Methodology to Predict the Time of Blockage (ToB) for Bicycle Sharing Systems.

As of 2018, Montreal’s bicycle-sharing system (BSS), BIXI Montreal, is managing about 6,200 bicycles and 540 stations from mid-April till mid-November. A major problem that arises in BSS’s is bicycle and/or dock availability. A more predictable system will help optimize bicycle-rebalancing and raise the customers’ satisfaction of the service which, eventually, will generate incentives for mode-shifting and reducing traffic congestion. In this thesis, we used the 2017 open-source data along with basic demographic information, provided by BIXI, to create a methodology that will improve rebalancing procedures and add adjustability to a BSS. Preliminary investigation of the data shows that bicycle/dock availabilities are critical during the AM peak hours - when most users utilize the system for commute. Arriving on time in the morning is a priority for most users and providing a convenient infrastructure service for this is believed to be essential for any growing city. At the station level, we examine arrivals and departures as well as capacity and inter-station distances. At the user level, we examine gender, age, language and trip duration. The developed methods will allow bicycle sharing systems to study the variation of the Time of Blockage (ToB) as the user profile changes. This is very useful when there is interest in geographical expansion of the system. The methods will also allow for real-time monitoring of the ToB instead of using pre-set dispatch times. This will definitely optimize bicycle rebalancing operations - maximizing convenience, availability and users’ satisfaction

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am grateful to my advisor, Dr. Sherif Ishak for the ideas that led to this work, for his valuable comments, guidance, support and patience, throughout the course of this work. I thank Dr. Chester Wilmot and Dr. Brian Wolshon for their thoughtful comments along the initial proposal for this thesis topic and for being on my defense committee. Also, I want to acknowledge the successful collaboration with Prashanth Kotha on some preliminary research studies. Last but not the least I thank everyone who has remotely helped in the successful completion of this work. I dedicate this thesis to my dearest lovely and supportive wife, Anca-Alexandra, and to my family who gave me the early and the most important education. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..........................................................................................................ii LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................................

Microscopic Simulation-Based High Occupancy Vehicle Lane Safety and Operation Assessment: A Case Study

This study proposes two general alternative designs to enhance the operation and safety of High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes at junctions with bus terminals or parking lots. A series of analysis tools, including microscopic simulation, video-based vehicle tracking technique, and Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM), are applied to model and test the safety and operational efficiency of an HOV road segment near a bus terminal in Québec as a case study. A metaheuristic optimization algorithm (i.e., Whale Optimization Algorithm) is employed to calibrate the microscopic model while deviation from the observed headway distribution is considered as a cost function. The results indicate that this type of HOV configurations exhibits significant safety problems (high number of crossing conflicts) and operational issues (high value of total delay) due to the terminal-bound buses that frequently need to travel across the main road. It is shown that the proposed alternative geometry design efficiently ameliorates the traffic conflicts issues. In addition, the alternative control design scheme significantly reduces the public transit delay. It is expected that this methodology can be applied to other reserved lane configurations similar to the investigated case study

Incorporating bicycling demand into pavement management systems for convenient bikeway networks

Several cities around the world have announced strategies to extend and/or upgrade their bikeway networks in response to the rapid increase of bicycle users. However, there is a disconnection between these strategies and management systems, often used for the scheduling of maintenance and rehabilitation of roads. Traditional pavement management systems fail to incorporate bicycle pathways considering bicycling demand, along with pavement condition, as a driving element to budget for improvements. More convenient and safer bicycling facilities can encourage more individuals to shift their daily commuting habits to bicycling. In this study, we incorporate bicycling demand into Pavement Management Systems to produce strategic plans for the maintenance and improvement of the bicycle networks. Furthermore, here we employ smartphones to represent bicycling demand using GPS trajectories of bicycles. In addition, goal optimization is applied to schedule interventions and improvements. Two scenarios are investigated with different annual budgets.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Driving Impairment Detection Due to Sun Exposure and Contrasting Shadow of Surface Objects: An Urban Case Study

A change in drivers’ vision quality might result in the deterioration of their perception and their effectiveness. The lack of an integrated algorithm to distinguish the location of drivers’ vision impairment motivates this study. The proposed model benefits from a combination of several sub-algorithms, such as sun positioning, glare detection, and contrasting shadow illustrator derived from raw geospatial data. The methodology is implemented through a case study involving a large-size metropolitan area road network, a Digital Elevation Model, the associated hillshade geographic data, and weather data from Montreal, Canada. The methodology and corresponding data analysis are implemented in Python. The result revealed a geospatial model to estimate the boundaries of transition points between the glare and contrasting shadows created by changes in roadway surroundings. The results provided by the model can be used as a tool to aid decision-makers in the new road construction and urban planning by creating safety countermeasure strategies and design review of road geometry.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author