Asteroid Belt Meteoroid Hazard Study

Mathematical models for probability of successful traverse of asteroid belt or zero penetration of spacecraft shiel

Surveyor lunar touchdown stability study Final report, Jul. 1965 - Jul. 1966

Dynamic analysis and computer simulation of Surveyor lunar landing stabilit

Elastic constants of 3-, 4- and 6-connected chiral and anti-chiral honeycombs subject to uniaxial in-plane loading

Finite Element models are developed for the in-plane linear elastic constants of a family of honeycombs comprising arrays of cylinders connected by ligaments. Honeycombs having cylinders with 3, 4 and 6 ligaments attached to them are considered, with two possible configurations explored for each of the 3- (trichiral and anti-trichiral) and 4- (tetrachiral and anti-tetrachiral) connected systems. Honeycombs for each configuration have been manufactured using rapid prototyping and subsequently characterised for mechanical properties through in-plane uniaxial loading to verify the models. An interesting consequence of the family of 'chiral' honeycombs presented here is the ability to produce negative Poisson's ratio (auxetic) response. The deformation mechanisms responsible for auxetic functionality in such honeycombs are discussed

Fragility Curves for Assessing the Resilience of Electricity Networks Constructed from an Extensive Fault Database

Robust infrastructure networks are vital to ensure community resilience; their failure leads to severe societal disruption and they have important postdisaster functions. However, as these networks consist of interconnected, but geographically-distributed, components, system resilience is difficult to assess. In this paper the authors propose the use of an extension to the catastrophe (CAT) risk modeling approach, which is primarily used to perform risk assessments of independent assets, to be adopted for these interdependent systems. To help to achieve this, fragility curves, a crucial element of CAT models, are developed for overhead electrical lines using an empirical approach to ascribe likely failures due to wind storm hazard. To generate empirical fragility curves for electrical overhead lines, a dataset of over 12,000 electrical failures is coupled to a European reanalysis (ERA) wind storm model, ERA-Interim. The authors consider how the spatial resolution of the electrical fault data affects these curves, generating a fragility curve with low resolution fault data with a R2R2 value of 0.9271 and improving this to a R2R2 value of 0.9889 using higher spatial resolution data. Recommendations for deriving similar fragility curves for other infrastructure systems and/or hazards using the same methodological approach are also made. The authors argue that the developed fragility curves are applicable to other regions with similar electrical infrastructure and wind speeds, although some additional calibration may be required

Visualisation Tools for Multi-Perspective, Cross-Sector, Long-Term Infrastructure Performance Evaluation

Across different infrastructure sectors there are systems that help to monitor the current and near-future operation and performance of a particular system. Whilst Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are critical to maintaining acceptable levels of functionality, they do not provide insights over the longer timescales across which strategic investment decisions play out. To understand how individual or multiple, interdependent, infrastructure sectors perform over longer timescales, capacity/demand modelling is required. However, the outputs of such models are often a complex high-dimensionality result-set, and this complexity is further compounded when crosssector evaluation is required. To maximise utility of such models, tools are required that can process and present key outputs. In this paper we describe the development of prototype tools for infrastructure performance evaluation in relation to different strategic decisions and the complex outputs generated from capacity and demand models of five infrastructure sectors (energy, water, waste water, solid waste, transport) investigated within the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC). By constructing tools that expose various dimensions of the model outputs, a user is able to take greater control over the knowledge discovery process

Outcomes following oesophagectomy in patients with oesophageal cancer: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

Introduction: This report describes the case mix and outcomes of patients with oesophageal cancer admitted to adult critical care units following elective oesophageal surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Methods: Admissions to critical care following elective oesophageal surgery for malignancy were identified using data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database. Information on admissions between December 1995 and September 2007 were extracted and the association between in-hospital mortality and patient characteristics on admission to critical care was assessed using multiple logistic regression analysis. The performance of three prognostic models (Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and the ICNARC physiology score) was also evaluated. Results: Between 1995 and 2007, there were 7227 admissions to 181 critical care units following oesophageal surgery for malignancy. Overall mortality in critical care was 4.4% and in-hospital mortality was 11%, although both declined steadily over time. Eight hundred and seventy-three (12.2%) patients were readmitted to critical care, most commonly for respiratory complications (49%) and surgical complications (25%). Readmitted patients had a critical care unit mortality of 24.7% and in-hospital mortality of 33.9%. Overall in-hospital mortality was associated with patient age, and various physiological measurements on admission to critical care (partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2):fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) ratio, lowest arterial pH, mechanical ventilation, serum albumin, urea and creatinine). The three prognostic models evaluated performed poorly in measures of discrimination, calibration and goodness of fit. Conclusions: Surgery for oesophageal malignancy continues to be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age and organ dysfunction in the early postoperative period are associated with an increased risk of death. Postoperative serum albumin is confirmed as an additional prognostic factor. More work is required to determine how this knowledge may improve clinical management

The philosophy of critical realism and childhood studies

Critical realism is a philosophy of social science that analyses and aims to remedy current problems and gaps. Basic tenets of positivist and quantitative research tend to contradict those of qualitative and interpretive research, and critical realism proposes ways to resolve the contradictions. Vital themes in childhood research that are reviewed in this article include a comparison with feminist research, critical realism, being and thought, transitive and intransitive, theory/practice consistency, agency and structure, closed and open systems, micro and macro in the global/local nexus, four planar social being, facts and values, and transformative change through the four-stage MELD dialectic. Critical realism aims to understand the world in order to be able move from coercion towards creative liberating power

The Dynamics of Internet Traffic: Self-Similarity, Self-Organization, and Complex Phenomena

The Internet is the most complex system ever created in human history. Therefore, its dynamics and traffic unsurprisingly take on a rich variety of complex dynamics, self-organization, and other phenomena that have been researched for years. This paper is a review of the complex dynamics of Internet traffic. Departing from normal treatises, we will take a view from both the network engineering and physics perspectives showing the strengths and weaknesses as well as insights of both. In addition, many less covered phenomena such as traffic oscillations, large-scale effects of worm traffic, and comparisons of the Internet and biological models will be covered.Comment: 63 pages, 7 figures, 7 tables, submitted to Advances in Complex System

Collective Decision Dynamics in the Presence of External Drivers

We develop a sequence of models describing information transmission and decision dynamics for a network of individual agents subject to multiple sources of influence. Our general framework is set in the context of an impending natural disaster, where individuals, represented by nodes on the network, must decide whether or not to evacuate. Sources of influence include a one-to-many externally driven global broadcast as well as pairwise interactions, across links in the network, in which agents transmit either continuous opinions or binary actions. We consider both uniform and variable threshold rules on the individual opinion as baseline models for decision-making. Our results indicate that 1) social networks lead to clustering and cohesive action among individuals, 2) binary information introduces high temporal variability and stagnation, and 3) information transmission over the network can either facilitate or hinder action adoption, depending on the influence of the global broadcast relative to the social network. Our framework highlights the essential role of local interactions between agents in predicting collective behavior of the population as a whole.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure