Evaluating the Chilean Government’s Debt Denomination

This paper proposes a framework to assess the convenience of the current public debt denomination of the Chilean Government, through its implications on fiscal budget risk management. A “Value at Risk” methodology is proposed to compare alternative denominations regarding currency and interest rate. If the correlations found between the main factors affecting the fiscal result are valued at their point estimates, the exercise suggests that swapping the current debt denomination in fixed interest payments to variable payments indexed to Libor or government bond rates would significantly reduce fiscal results' volatility. The results also point to reduce current currency denomination in US dollars towards a stronger position in Euros or British Pounds. A more statistically rigorous analysis that considers the volatility of estimated correlations, however, recommends taking previous conclusions with caution.

Information Aggregation, Investment, and Managerial Incentives

We study the interplay of share prices and firm decisions when share prices aggregate and convey noisy information about fundamentals to investors and managers. First, we show that the informational feedback between the firm's share price and its investment decisions leads to a systematic premium in the firm's share price relative to expected dividends. Noisy information aggregation leads to excess price volatility, over-valuation of shares in response to good news, and undervaluation in response to bad news. By optimally increasing its exposure to fundamental risks when the market price conveys good news, the firm shifts its dividend risk to the upside, which amplifies the overvaluation and explains the premium. Second, we argue that explicitly linking managerial compensation to share prices gives managers an incentive to manipulate the firm's decisions to their own benefit. The managers take advantage of shareholders by taking excessive investment risks when the market is optimistic, and investing too little when the market is pessimistic. The amplified upside exposure is rewarded by the market through a higher share price, but is inefficient from the perspective of dividend value.

A Theory of Asset Pricing Based on Heterogeneous Information

We propose a theory of asset prices that emphasizes heterogeneous information as the main element determining prices of different securities. Our main analytical innovation is in formulating a model of noisy information aggregation through asset prices, which is parsimonious and tractable, yet flexible in the specification of cash flow risks. We show that the noisy aggregation of heterogeneous investor beliefs drives a systematic wedge between the impact of fundamentals on an asset price, and the corresponding impact on cash flow expectations. The key intuition behind the wedge is that the identity of the marginal trader has to shift for different realization of the underlying shocks to satisfy the market-clearing condition. This identity shift amplifies the impact of price on the marginal trader's expectations. We derive tight characterization for both the conditional and the unconditional expected wedges. Our first main theorem shows how the sign of the expected wedge (that is, the difference between the expected price and the dividends) depends on the shape of the dividend payoff function and on the degree of informational frictions. Our second main theorem provides conditions under which the variability of prices exceeds the variability for realized dividends. We conclude with two applications of our theory. First, we highlight how heterogeneous information can lead to systematic departures from the Modigliani-Miller theorem. Second, in a dynamic extension of our model we provide conditions under which bubbles arise.

Labor Market Rigidity and Structural Shocks: An Open-Economy Approach for International Comparisons

We construct performance-based measures of labor market rigidity considering an open economy framework. We derive and estimate an indicator that depends exclusively on the theoretical measure of unions' bargaining power, with which we rank a sample of 18 heterogeneous countries. The indicator is obtained from unemployment persistence to structural shocks identified using a SVAR with longrun restrictions. We find that Korea, Hong Kong, Chile and the US are relatively flexible, while Germany, Sweden, Spain and Colombia are among the most rigid labor markets. Our index shows high correlation with labor market performance and institutional regulation variables, mainly associated to union representation.

Which Inclusive Globalisation?

The text inquires about the possible meanings of an "inclusive globalization" from four main argumentative sets: (a) the emerging climate regime and its corresponding regime of knowledge and information; (b) the recognition of other epistemologies and narratives, as well as the contributions both from the peripheries and “from below”; (c) the issues raised by the open Science movements; (d) the thesis of a common Science or a Science of the common. Text presented at the COASPA 2019, held in Copenhagen from 24 to 24 September, 2019, as the Keynote of Panel 2 “Inclusive globalization – views from developing regions “

Myc et compétitions intercellulaires chez la drosophile

La différenciation cellulaire repose en partie sur des mécanismes de sélection, notamment par compétition vis-à-vis de facteurs extrinsèques vitaux présents en quantité limitante ; mais quels sont les déterminants internes gouvernant l’aptitude des cellules dans ce type de compétition ? De récents travaux menés sur le disque imaginal de l’aile de drosophile en identifie un, la protéine d-Myc. En effet, le niveau relatif d’expression de d-Myc par les cellules de cet épithélium détermine l’issue de leur compétition, les cellules les mieux pourvues tendant à surcroître, au détriment de leur voisines qui disparaissent par apoptose. Un niveau relativement élevé de d-Myc confère donc un avantage compétitif décisif, probablement en stimulant la biogenèse des ribosomes, ce qui augmenterait la capacité des cellules à recevoir, voire à accaparer, des facteurs extrinsèques vitaux, en particulier Dpp (decapentaplegic). Ces résultats pourraient expliquer comment une surexpression des protéines Myc de vertébrés contribue à la tumorigenèse et, par conséquent, éclairer les liens unissant métabolisme et cancer.Cell differentiation and organ shaping proceed not only upon instructive but also upon competitive cell-cell interactions. In the proliferating epithelium forming the larval Drosophila wing disc, cell competition contributes to the fidelity of the organogenesis. Several recent studies show how d-myc, encoding a bHLH/LZ transcription factor homologous to vertebrate Myc proteins, controls cell competition during wing development. In this model, any experiment leading to the confrontation of two populations differing by their levels of d-Myc expression, even in a two-fold ratio, gives rise to a competition characterized both by an overgrowth of the population having the highest level and an apoptotic elimination of the neighbouring « weakly » expressing cells. As a consequence of the mutually compensating nature of these two processes, the final size of the wing remains unchanged. Importantly, lowering or elevating d-Myc expression to the same extent in all cells of the disc does not trigger competition. This indicates that competition is linked to a spatial heterogeneity in, and not to the absolute level of, d-Myc expression. Both vertebrate and Drosophila Myc proteins stimulate ribosome biogenesis, and genetic evidence in Drosophila suggests that this property underlies the strong competitive advantage imparted by its relatively high expression. Accordingly, it is proposed, although not proved, that the more the wing cells express d-Myc and amplify their protein synthesis apparatus, the more they bind, internalize, and transduce the vital and limiting growth factor Dpp, which in turn is presumed to increase d-Myc protein level. These findings suggest that wing organogenesis is a self-corrected process whereby d-Myc induction in overgrowing cells ensures the compensatory elimination of their neighbours. Moreover, they have important implications for the oncogenic role of vertebrate Myc proteins and possibly of related transcription factors

Denomination of the Debt of the Chilean Government: A Risk Management Perspective

This paper proposes a framework to assess the convenience of the current public debt denomination of the Chilean Government, through its implications on fiscal budget risk management. A “Value at Risk” methodology is proposed to compare alternative denominations regarding currency and interest rate. This methodology computes the implicit volatility of the budget’s result considering both the variance of individual accounts, as well as their respective covariance, and permits to compare quantitatively the relative risk of different debt denominations. The exercise suggests that changing the current debt denomination in fixed interest payments to variable payments indexed to Libor or government bond rates would significantly reduce the volatility of fiscal results. If more recent correlations are considered in the exercise, the results also suggest reducing current currency denomination in US dollars towards a stronger position in euros. An additional analysis that considers the volatility of estimated correlations, however, recommends taking previous conclusions with caution.

Movimento hackerspace: um estudo sobre a experiência brasileira

Hackerspaces are part of a phenomenon emerging all over the world of building alternative spaces and infrastructure for research, experimenting and learning. They differ from other institutionally established spaces in their principles of autonomy: they are financed and managed by their own members and, as a result, they enjoy greater freedom in the definition of their themes and issues. In this article, we present the results of a research project carried out in 2017 about Brazilian hackerspaces. In the analysis, we resorted to the structure proposed by Smith and others (2017) in their study about grassroots innovation movements, organized into four complementary aspects as follows: context, framings, spaces and strategies, and pathways. Thus, we contemplate the history of the movement in Brazil; meanings and narratives shared by participants; spaces and strategies employed in their structure and organization; and, finally, case studies selected because they can be articulated with the local community issues. The survey identified 21 active hackerspaces in the country in 2017, distributed in the Midwest, Northeast, Southeast and South. Sixteen of them answered a questionnaire that revealed the diversity of their activities and proximity to the university community, among other characteristics. The case studies have shown that, besides contributing to the broader circulation of technological knowledge, hackerspaces are also spaces for the development of practices and technologies that seek to answer social and environmental issues, such as sustainability in the disposal of electronic waste and citizen monitoring of the environment.Os hackerspaces fazem parte de fenômeno emergente em todo o mundo de construção de espaços e infraestruturas alternativos de pesquisa, experimentação e aprendizado. Diferenciam-se de outros espaços institucionalmente estabelecidos por seus princípios de autonomia: são financiados e geridos por seus próprios membros e, logo, têm maior liberdade para definirem seus temas e questões. Neste artigo, apresentamos os resultados de pesquisa realizada, em 2017, sobre os hackerspaces brasileiros. Na análise, recorremos à estrutura proposta por Smith et al. (2017) em seu estudo sobre movimentos de inovação de base, organizada em quatro aspectos que se complementam, quais sejam: contexto, enquadramento, espaços e estratégias, e caminhos. Assim, abordamos a história do movimento no Brasil; sentidos e narrativas compartilhados pelos participantes; espaços e estratégias utilizados em sua estrutura e organização; e, finalmente, os estudos de casos selecionados por se articularem com questões da comunidade local. A pesquisa identificou 21 hackerspaces ativos no país em 2017, distribuídos pelas regiões Centro-Oeste, Nordeste, Sudeste e Sul. Destes, 16 responderam a um questionário que revelou a diversidade das atividades desenvolvidas e a proximidade dessas iniciativas com a comunidade universitária, dentre outras características. Já os estudos de caso evidenciaram que, além de contribuírem para a mais ampla circulação do conhecimento tecnológico, os hackerspaces também são espaços para o desenvolvimento de práticas e tecnologias que buscam responder a questões sociais e ambientais, como a sustentabilidade no descarte do lixo eletrônico e o monitoramento cidadão do meio ambiente