Uncertainty of outcome or strengths of teams: an economic analysis of attendance demand for international cricket

A significant body of theoretical literature has argued that popular interest in sporting contests between teams is heavily influenced by how difficult it is to predict the result ex-ante. Empirical research has, however, been unable to reach a consensus on the magnitude of uncertainty of outcome on demand. In this article, we seek to resolve this impasse by distinguishing between uncertainty of outcome in the short run and uncertainty of outcome in the long run. We also show that it is important to control for the independent effect of absolute team strength when testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. Using data on over 380 Test cricket matches played in England, Australia and New Zealand since 1980, we find that short-run uncertainty of outcome has a significant impact on attendance demand and that absolute team strength has better explanatory power for attendance demand than does long-run uncertainty of outcome. Our results suggest some policy implications for the management and organization of international cricket

Uncertainty of outcome, team quality or star players? What drives TV audience demand for UEFA Champions League football?

Research Question This is the first article to empirically examine what drives TV audience demand for the UEFA Champions League (UCL) in major European markets. It then asks: How well does the tournament structure meet the preferences of TV viewers? Research Methods The article analyses the UCL from 2013/14–2018/19, considering TV viewing figures for all televised games from the group stages through to the finals in six nations – France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK. It then analyses match data in the UCL since its most recent tournament restructure in 2003/04, along with Ballon d’Or results and UEFA Club Coefficient rankings, to assess the efficiency of the current tournament structure. Results and findings Uncertainty of outcome is not significantly associated with the size of TV audiences for the UCL, but both the presence of star players and team quality are. However, analysis of match data reveals that the current structure of the UCL does not maximise the number of star players or top clubs that progress to the latter stages of the tournament. Implications These findings enable UEFA and other sport competition organisers to make evidence-informed decisions about how to structure competitions, while balancing the needs of multiple stakeholders. They also contribute to the small but growing body of empirical work that seeks to identify the key drivers of TV demand for sport – increasingly the dominant form of revenue for many sport organisations