Periodic Modulation Induced Increase of Reaction Rates in Autocatalytic Systems

We propose a new mechanism to increase the reactions ratesin multistable autocatalytic systems. The mechanism is based upon the possibility for the enhancement of the response of the system due to the cooperative behavior between the noise and an external periodic modulation. In order to illustrate this feature we compute the reaction velocities for the particular case of the Sel'Kov model, showing that they increase significantly when the periodic modulation is introduced. This behavior originates from the existence of a minimum in the mean first passage time, one of the signatures of stochastic resonance.Comment: Submitted to J. Chem. Phy

Mathematical modelling of angiogenesis and vascular adaptation

n/

Modelling the response of vascular tumours to chemotherapy: A multiscale approach

An existing multiscale model is extended to study the response of a vascularised tumour to treatment with chemotherapeutic drugs which target proliferating cells. The underlying hybrid cellular automaton model couples tissue-level processes (e.g. blood flow, vascular adaptation, oxygen and drug transport) with cellular and subcellular phenomena (e.g. competition for space, progress through the cell cycle, natural cell death and drug-induced cell kill and the expression of angiogenic factors). New simulations suggest that, in the absence of therapy, vascular adaptation induced by angiogenic factors can stimulate spatio-temporal oscillations in the tumour's composition.\ud \ud Numerical simulations are presented and show that, depending on the choice of model parameters, when a drug which kills proliferating cells is continuously infused through the vasculature, three cases may arise: the tumour is eliminated by the drug; the tumour continues to expand into the normal tissue; or, the tumour undergoes spatio-temporal oscillations, with regions of high vascular and tumour cell density alternating with regions of low vascular and tumour cell density. The implications of these results and possible directions for future research are also discussed

Cost of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus at individual farm level – An economic disease model

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is reported to be among the diseases with the highest economic impact in modern pig production worldwide. Yet, the economic impact of the disease at farm level is not well understood as, especially in endemically infected pig herds, losses are often not obvious. It is therefore difficult for farmers and veterinarians to appraise whether control measures such as virus elimination or vaccination will be economically beneficial for their farm. Thus, aim of this study was to develop an epidemiological and economic model to determine the costs of PRRS for an individual pig farm. In a production model that simulates farm outputs, depending on farm type, farrowing rhythm or length of suckling period, an epidemiological model was integrated. In this, the impact of PRRS infection on health and productivity was estimated. Financial losses were calculated in a gross margin analysis and a partial budget analysis based on the changes in health and production parameters assumed for different PRRS disease severities. Data on the effects of endemic infection on reproductive performance, morbidity and mortality, daily weight gain, feed efficiency and treatment costs were obtained from literature and expert opinion. Nine different disease scenarios were calculated, in which a farrow-to-finish farm (1000 sows) was slightly, moderately or severely affected by PRRS, based on changes in health and production parameters, and either in breeding, in nursery and fattening or in all three stages together. Annual losses ranged from a median of € 75′724 (90% confidence interval (C.I.): € 78′885–€ 122′946), if the farm was slightly affected in nursery and fattening, to a median of € 650′090 (90% C.I. € 603′585–€ 698′379), if the farm was severely affected in all stages. Overall losses were slightly higher if breeding was affected than if nursery and fattening were affected. In a herd moderately affected in all stages, median losses in breeding were € 46′021 and € 422′387 in fattening, whereas costs were € 25′435 lower in nursery, compared with a PRRSV-negative farm. The model is a valuable decision-support tool for farmers and veterinarians if a farm is proven to be affected by PRRS (confirmed by laboratory diagnosis). The output can help to understand the need for interventions in case of significant impact on the profitability of their enterprise. The model can support veterinarians in their communication to farmers in cases where costly disease control measures are justified

the case of tobacco control

publishersversionpublishe