Modernising the Islands: Irish and Scottish Gaelic Fictions

8510

4 basne

Književno prevođenj

Tweeting and Tornadoes

ABSTRACT Social Media and micro-blogging is being used during crisis events to provide live up-to-date information as events evolve (before, during and after). Messages are posted by citizens or public officials. To understand the effectiveness of these messages, we examined the content of geo-located Twitter messages ("tweets") sent during the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20 th , 2013 (+/-1day) to explore the spatial and temporal relationships of real-time reactions of the general public. We found a clear transition of topics during each stage of the tornado event. Twitter was useful for posting and retrieving updates, reconstructing the sequence of events as well as capturing people's reactions leading up to, during and after the tornado. A long-term goal for the research reported here is to provide insights to forecasters and emergency response personnel concerning the impact of warnings and other advisory messages

Cirripedia of Madeira

We give a list of Cirripedia from Madeira Island and nearby deep water, based on specimens in the collection of the Museu Municipal do Funchal (Historia Natural) (MMF), records mentioned in the literature, and recent collections. Tesseropora atlantica Newman and Ross, 1976 is recorded from Madeira for the first time. The Megabalanus of Madeira is M. azoricus. There are 20 genera containing 27 species, of which 22 occur in depths less than 200 m. Of these shallow water species, eight are wide-ranging oceanic forms that attach to other organisms or to floating objects, leaving just 13 truly benthic shallow water barnacles. This low diversity is probably a consequence of the distance from the continental coasts and the small area of the available habitat. No endemic species have been found

Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products

Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) relies substantially on numerical prediction systems. Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios, it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings. RSMCs, TCWCs, and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs, but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) found that the “pull-through” of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow. IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project, which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project. The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts. TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases: Phase 1 (TC formation and position); Phase 2 (TC intensity and structure); and Phase 3 (TC related rainfall and storm surge). This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position. There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information, making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers. Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices. Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts. Finally, forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent, user-friendly ensemble information. Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility, probabilistic forecast products, and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes

CLXXXVI.?Conditions of formation of rings attached to the o-, m-, and p-positions of the benzene nucleus. Part I. The action of sodium on o-phenylenediacetic ester

n/

Track forecast: operational capability and new techniques - summary from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10)

In this paper, we summarize findings from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10) subgroup on operational track forecasting techniques and capability. The rate of improvement in the accuracy of official forecast tracks (OFTs) appears to be slowing down, at least for shorter lead times, where we may be approaching theoretical limits. Operational agencies continue to use consensus methods to produce the OFT with most continuing to rely on an unweighted consensus of four to nine NWP models. There continues to be limited use of weighted consensus techniques, which is likely a result of the skills and additional maintenance needed to support this approach. Improvements in the accuracy of ensemble mean tracks is leading to increased use of ensemble means in consensus tracks. Operational agencies are increasingly producing situation-dependent depictions of track uncertainty, rather than relying on a static depiction of track forecast certainty based on accuracy statistics from the preceding 5 years. This trend has been facilitated by the greater availability of ensemble NWP guidance, particularly vortex parameter files, and improved spread in ensembles. Despite improving spread-skill relationships, most ensemble NWP systems remain under spread. Hence many operational centers are looking to leverage "super-ensembles" (ensembles of ensembles) to ensure the full spread of location probability is captured. This is an important area of service development for multi-hazard impact-based warnings as it supports better decision making by emergency managers and the community in the face of uncertainty

Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic forecast products

Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) relies substantially on numerical prediction systems. Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios, it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings. RSMCs, TCWCs, and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs, but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) found that the “pull-through” of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow. IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project, which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project. The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts. TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases: Phase 1 (TC formation and position); Phase 2 (TC intensity and structure); and Phase 3 (TC related rainfall and storm surge). This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position. There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information, making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers. Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices. Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts. Finally, forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent, user-friendly ensemble information. Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility, probabilistic forecast products, and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes