The role of traditional livelihood practices and local ethnobotanical knowledge in mitigating chestnut disease and pest severity in Turkey

The European chestnut population is enduring multiple compounding exotic pest and disease outbreaks across Turkey. The deeply held value of the chestnut species for the Turkish public is reflected in substantial government conservation programming. Chestnut is predominantly found on state land managed by Turkey’s General Directorate of Forestry (GDF), which generally upholds restrictive policies for chestnut-related livelihood practices other than nut collection and beehive placement. Such policies are justified by a government position that human activities and presence is likely to worsen disease dynamics. Conversely, a growing body of research findings testify that small-scale livelihood practices maintain biological diversity and, furthermore, that this traditional maintenance of diversity has been correlated with decreased pathogen pressure within agroecosystems. However, few studies have investigated this phenomenon in the context of agroforestry systems. At a global ecological moment of increasingly pervasive and severe exotic forest pathogen impact, this paper investigates the influence of diverse small-scale livelihood practices and knowledge on chestnut tree health across the highly heterogenous geography of Turkey. We conducted ethnobotanical questionnaires with 96 chestnut-utilizing households, and chestnut tree health evaluations in georeferenced forest areas they identified, throughout Turkey’s Black Sea, Marmara, and Aegean regions. Using data from 1500 trees, we characterized the effects of subsequently recorded environmental, physiological, and anthropogenic factors on tree health using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), multiple factor analysis (MFA), and mixed models. Our results show that the traditional human management of tree physiology and ecology has a significant positive effect on tree health, especially through the acts of grafting and culling as well as the maintenance of diversity. We argue that conceptualizing such livelihood systems as human niche construction and maintenance can help forest management agencies to better understand and conserve valuable landscapes, even in increasingly common periods of severe pathogenic pressure

Development of predictive models for shallow lake turnovers

Eutrophication, usually caused by excessive nutrients from human activities, may cause dire environmental consequences such as harmful algal blooms and fish kills. Especially, turnover in eutrophic and stratified lakes is dangerous for aquatic lives. Solutions such as reducing storm water run-off and lake restoration are costly and take years to develop. This research develops Artificial neural network (ANN) predictive models for turnovers in Eymir Lake, Turkey with an aim to develop autonomous pre-emptive water quality measurement and intervention system. As there is no consensus as to whether the target variable should be the difference in dissolved oxygen (DO) or temperature between the surface and bottom water layers is better, networks with three separate turnover related target variables, namely (i) difference in dissolved oxygen; (ii) difference in temperature; and (iii) the average of and were trained and compared. Results show high potential for ANN models as all trained networks achieved adjusted R2 over 0.9. The model with the target variable gave best prediction accuracy. However, DO is the one of the direct parameters causing fish kills and other environmental impact, and the selection of target variable should be considered in the context of the purpose of the modelling effort

Safety and efficacy of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to reduce ileus after colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after elective colorectal surgery, and is associated with increased adverse events and prolonged hospital stay. The aim was to assess the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) for reducing ileus after surgery. Methods: A prospective multicentre cohort study was delivered by an international, student- and trainee-led collaborative group. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The primary outcome was time to gastrointestinal recovery, measured using a composite measure of bowel function and tolerance to oral intake. The impact of NSAIDs was explored using Cox regression analyses, including the results of a centre-specific survey of compliance to enhanced recovery principles. Secondary safety outcomes included anastomotic leak rate and acute kidney injury. Results: A total of 4164 patients were included, with a median age of 68 (i.q.r. 57\u201375) years (54\ub79 per cent men). Some 1153 (27\ub77 per cent) received NSAIDs on postoperative days 1\u20133, of whom 1061 (92\ub70 per cent) received non-selective cyclo-oxygenase inhibitors. After adjustment for baseline differences, the mean time to gastrointestinal recovery did not differ significantly between patients who received NSAIDs and those who did not (4\ub76 versus 4\ub78 days; hazard ratio 1\ub704, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub796 to 1\ub712; P = 0\ub7360). There were no significant differences in anastomotic leak rate (5\ub74 versus 4\ub76 per cent; P = 0\ub7349) or acute kidney injury (14\ub73 versus 13\ub78 per cent; P = 0\ub7666) between the groups. Significantly fewer patients receiving NSAIDs required strong opioid analgesia (35\ub73 versus 56\ub77 per cent; P < 0\ub7001). Conclusion: NSAIDs did not reduce the time for gastrointestinal recovery after colorectal surgery, but they were safe and associated with reduced postoperative opioid requirement

Safety of hospital discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after colorectal surgery and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Identifying features of normal bowel recovery and the appropriateness for hospital discharge is challenging. This study explored the safety of hospital discharge before the return of bowel function. Methods: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was undertaken across an international collaborative network. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The main outcome of interest was readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery. The impact of discharge timing according to the return of bowel function was explored using multivariable regression analysis. Other outcomes were postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery, measured using the Clavien\u2013Dindo classification system. Results: A total of 3288 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 301 (9\ub72 per cent) were discharged before the return of bowel function. The median duration of hospital stay for patients discharged before and after return of bowel function was 5 (i.q.r. 4\u20137) and 7 (6\u20138) days respectively (P < 0\ub7001). There were no significant differences in rates of readmission between these groups (6\ub76 versus 8\ub70 per cent; P = 0\ub7499), and this remained the case after multivariable adjustment for baseline differences (odds ratio 0\ub790, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub755 to 1\ub746; P = 0\ub7659). Rates of postoperative complications were also similar in those discharged before versus after return of bowel function (minor: 34\ub77 versus 39\ub75 per cent; major 3\ub73 versus 3\ub74 per cent; P = 0\ub7110). Conclusion: Discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery appears to be safe in appropriately selected patients