An improved Pi-Sigma neural network using error feedback for time series prediction

Time series prediction grabs much attention because of its effect on the vast range of real-life applications. Traditional time series forecasting tools have some limitations like slow training process, less efficient training methods that decrease the performance of the model. Higher Order Neural Network (HONN) using recurrent feedback appeared as a powerful technique in the domain of time series prediction and it has the ability to expand the input space, making them more efficient for solving complex problems and perform high learning abilities in time series prediction. This study proposed a model called improved Pi-Sigma Neural Network using Error Feedback (PSNN-EF) which combines the properties of Pi-Sigma Neural Network (PSNN), recurrence and error feedback. PSNN-EF uses backpropagation gradient descent algorithm for training purpose and is tested with physical time series signals of humidity, evaporation and wind direction datasets that are collected from Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD). The prediction result is compared with Jordan Pi-Sigma Neural Network (JPSN) and the ordinary PSNN. The results clearly showed that the PSNN-EF significantly improved the computational efficiency of the training process and has been developed to produce more realistic and acceptable results. The average improvement of the proposed model on evaporation dataset is 2.06%, humidity is 7.45% and wind is 3.51% as compared to other models. The benefit of using error feedback is that it generates more accurate and promising results of prediction. Therefore, from the performance of the proposed method, it is noticed that PSNN-EF can provide better solution to JPSN for one-step-ahead prediction of those three datasets

SPILLOVER EFFECT OF MEAN AND VOLATILITY IN ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS: STUDY FOR PAKISTANI FUND MANAGERS

The main purpose of the study is to find out the hedging capabilities between alternative assets (Gold, Crude oil, Currencies, MSCI Global, and Mutual Funds) and stock returns of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). ARCH (1,1) and and GARCH (1,1) models are applied to determine the mean and spillover effect between alternative assets returns and PSX index returns. The results of the study reveal that volatility spillover exists in all alternative investments except MSCI Global Index because MSCI indicates insignificant results. Therofre, it is better opportunity for fund managers to invest in MSCI Global or Emerging Index as it will provide more hedging opportunities. Keywords: Alternative Investments, Mean volatility, Volatility Spillover, ARCH (1,1),  GARCH (1,1), Gold, MSCI Global Index,  Crude oil, Mutual Funds, Dollar , KSE&nbsp

A Comprehensive Survey on Pi-Sigma Neural Network for Time Series Prediction

Prediction of time series grabs received much attention because of its effect on the vast range of real life applications. This paper presents a survey of time series applications using Higher Order Neural Network (HONN) model. The basic motivation behind using HONN is the ability to expand the input space, to solve complex problems it becomes more efficient and perform high learning abilities of the time series forecasting. Pi-Sigma Neural Network (PSNN) includes indirectly the capabilities of higher order networks using product cells as the output units and less number of weights. The goal of this research is to present the reader awareness about PSNN for time series prediction, to highlight some benefits and challenges using PSNN. Possible fields of PSNN applications in comparison with existing methods are presented and future directions are also explored in advantage with the properties of error feedback and recurrent networks

Optical Dromions for Spatiotemporal Fractional Nonlinear System in Quantum Mechanics

In physics, mathematics, and other disciplines, new integrable equations have been found using the P-test. Novel insights and discoveries in several domains have resulted from this. Whether a solution is oscillatory, decaying, or expanding exponentially can be observed by using the AEM approach. In this work, we examined the integrability of the triple nonlinear fractional Schrödinger equation (TNFSE) via the Painlevé test (P-test) and a number of optical solitary wave solutions such as bright dromions (solitons), hyperbolic, singular, periodic, domain wall, doubly periodic, trigonometric, dark singular, plane-wave solution, combined optical solitons, rational solutions, etc., via the auxiliary equation mapping (AEM) technique. In mathematical physics and in engineering sciences, this equation plays a very important role. Moreover, the graphical representation (3D, 2D, and contour) of the obtained optical solitary-wave solutions will facilitate the understanding of the physical phenomenon of this system. The computational work and conclusions indicate that the suggested approaches are efficient and productive

Investigating the effect of Aspergillus niger inoculated press mud (biofertilizer) on the potential of enhancing maize (Zea mays. L) yield, potassium use efficiency and potassium agronomic efficiency

Globally field application of mineral potassium (K) fertilizer has grown, followed by reduced K use efficiency (KUE) and K agronomic efficiency (KAE) which ultimately leads to environmental pollution and economic loss. The soils of Pakistan have a low K level due to a higher proportion is present in an unavailable form. The objective of the current study was to isolate efficient plant growth-promoting fungus to sustainably manage huge burden of sugar industry waste press mud into a productive biofertilizer. K from biofertilizer was then evaluated in different treatments for maize biological yield, grain yield, harvest index (HI), K uptake in different maize parts, KUE and KAE in comparison to mineral fertilizer (MF). The efficiency of treatment was measured on higher KUE and KAE. In-vitro studies revealed that A. niger PM-4 was found to solubilize phosphate (389 ug/ml) and zinc (115 ug/ml) from insoluble tri-calcium phosphate and zinc oxide, respectively, at a wider temperature and pH range. The strain was also found to inhibit the production of aflatoxins and its inoculation into press mud produced non-phytotoxic and mature biofertilizer with germination index 96.5%. Bio-augmentation of press mud with A. niger shortens maturity period with improved nutrient contents. Higher grain yield and harvest index of maize were achieved with a higher amount of incorporated K from mineral and biofertilizer T5(100%Org+50%MF) than any other treatment. However, higher KUE and KAE were found in the following order: T6 > T5 > T2 > T3 > T4 > T1, demonstrating the integrated and balanced use of K from mineral and biofertilizer without threatening the environment

Formulation and evaluation of niosomes-based chlorpheniramine gel for the treatment of mild to moderate skin allergy

Purpose of present study was to develop eight formulations of chlorpheniramine (CPM) niosomes according to 23 factorial design, characterise on the basis of various evaluation tests, i.e. in vitro drug release, SEM, FTIR, TGA and release kinetics, optimise the eight formulation on the basis in vitro drug release data, formulate gel of optimised dispersion, and to perform in vivo and histopathological study using gel of optimised dispersion on rabbits. Here, N3 having low level of cholesterol and span-80 but high level of span-60(0.1:0.2:0.05) was selected as optimised dispersion of niosomes that showed highest drug release i.e. 88.25% at pH 6 over 24 h of study and followed Korsmeyers-Peppas release kinetics with Fickian diffusion mechanism. After application of statistic by Analysis of variance (ANOVA) with 3D surface plots construction, gel of optimised dispersion of CPM niosomes was formulated, and evaluated by tests for i.e. viscosity, Spreadability, Extrudibility, drug content, drug entrapment, stability, SEM, FTIR, TGA, in vitro drug release, in vivo drug release following first order kinetics and histopathological study. Niosomal gel of CPM ensured successful development using suitable combination of non-ionic surfactants, and effective loading of drug for targeted delivery of drug