Impact of Climate Change on Priority Plant Species Conservation in The Forests Under ONAB (the National Wood Office of Benin) Management

The sustainable conservation of forest resources in a context of climate change and population growth would be compromised in their current form of exploitation by rural communities. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the dynamics of habitats favorable to species of conservation priority in the forests under ONAB management as these species are heavily used by the populations living along the shores of these forests. The study will consist of: Khaya senegalensis, Afzelia africana, Khaya grandifoliola, Pterocarpus erinaceus, Anogeissus leiocarpa, Milicia excelsa, Albizia zygia, Vitex doniana, Antidesma laciniatum and Bombax costatum. Techniques based on the principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) combined with GIS were used to project the favorable habitats of these ten species under current and future climatic conditions (Horizon 2050). Species occurrence data were collected and combined with bioclimatic data derived from the Worldclim database and the edaphic (soil) variable. Two climate models were used for future projections (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM-ES models) under the IPCC A2 scenario, and the partial ROC approach was used for the evaluation of the predictions of ecological niche models. Variables such as cec2 (cation exchange capacity, horizon 5-15cm), bio17 (precipitation of the driest quarter), bio12 (annual precipitation), bio3 (isothermality), bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month) and bio7 (annual thermal amplitude) were found to be the most relevant respectively for the distribution of Khaya grandifoliola, Albizia zygia, Anogeissus leiocarpa, Antidesma laciniatum, Afzelia africana and Khaya senegalensis. Under current conditions, only 7% of the Beninese territory would be very favorable to the conservation of Khaya senegalensis and the CNRM-CM5 model predicts an increase of 27.5% and 13.2% respectively of these very favorable and moderately favorable areas by 2050 through conversion of unfavorable areas (7.4%). On the other hand, this model predicts an opposite trend at the level of Afzelia africana where it predicts a decrease of 8.1% and 1.8% respectively of the very favorable and moderately favorable areas and an increase of 5.1% of the unfavorable areas. Ecological niche modeling has basically revealed the conversion of some currently unfavorable habitats into very favorable habitats for conservation (this is the case of Khaya grandifoliola, Khaya senegalensis and Vitex doniana) and the extension of some habitats unfavorable to conservation (Anogeissus leiocarpa, Bombax costatum, and Pterocarpus erinaceus) by 2050. This study provides scientific support for planning and is a decision support tool for the conservation of these species at the socio-economic level

Developing policy-relevant biodiversity indicators : lessons learnt from case studies in Africa

There is an increasing need for monitoring schemes that help understand the evolution of the global biodiversity crisis and propose solutions for the future. Indicators, including temporal baselines, are crucial to measure the change in biodiversity over time, to evaluate progress towards its conservation and sustainable use and to set conservation priorities. They help design and monitor national and regional policies on biodiversity; they also feed into national reporting on international agreements such as the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Sustainable Development Goals. We analyse the methodological approach of five small African projects resulting from a call to promote indicator development, improve monitoring capacity and strengthen the science-policy interface in the field of biodiversity. We compared their approach to existing guidance provided by the international community, specifically the Biodiversity Indicators Partnership. To this end, we assess whether internationally recommended steps are effectively applied to national/local biodiversity monitoring in selected developing countries. We also present lessons learnt from workshop interactions between partners involved in these projects. Through our pilot projects we identified data availability and data accessibility, together with the involvement of stakeholders, as critical steps in indicator development. Moreover, there is a need for a better awareness and a wider application of the indicator concept itself. Hence, training of key actors both in the policy and science spheres is needed to operationalize indicators and ensure their continuity and sustainability. We hope that these case studies and lessons learnt can stimulate and support countries in the Global South to formulate policy-relevant biodiversity indicators.Peer reviewe