Minimal Residual Disease in Multiple Myeloma—Current Approaches and Future Clinical Implications

The prognosis and clinical outcomes for patients with multiple myeloma have improved significantly over the past two decades. A substantial number of patients now achieve complete remission after induction therapy, and more sensitive methods are needed to assess response. Minimal or measurable residual disease (MRD) has been incorporated in many clinical trials as well as in clinical practice. The importance of MRD assessment and correlation between MRD negativity and prolonged progression-free and overall survival has been confirmed in numerous clinical trials and several meta-analyses. Recent studies have even suggested that MRD negativity can partly overcome the impact of the negative prognostic factors such as high-risk cytogenetics or adverse revised international scoring system (R-ISS) stage. MRD can be measured in the bone marrow via imaging and via emerging blood-based techniques. The most common methods are multicolor flow cytometry and next-generation sequencing of bone marrow samples. Using these methods in optimal settings, MRD negativity with a sensitivity level of 10−6 can be detected. In this review, we discuss the benefits and limitations of these techniques as well as the clinical implications

Molecular underpinnings of clinical disparity patterns in African American vs. Caucasian American multiple myeloma patients

Abstract Caucasian Americans (CA) compared with African Americans (AA) have a twofold increased incidence of multiple myeloma (MM) and have an earlier age of diagnosis. However, there is sparse information regarding underlying biological differences across racial/ethnic groups. We characterized genetic alterations using a targeted next-generation sequencing assay called myTYPE, developed at MSKCC, allowing capture of somatic mutations, IgH translocations, gains/losses, and hyperdiploidy. Samples were obtained from the NIH Plasma Cell Dyscrasia Racial Disparity Cohort. In total, 68 patient samples were successfully sequenced and manually curated based on well-established databases. Of the 68 patient samples (47 CA, 21 AA), 84% had at least one type of genomic alteration. Importantly, the IgH translocation, t(11;14), was observed more frequently in the AA group (0 vs. 29%, p = 0.001). Known oncogenic somatic non-synonymous mutations were found in 18 genes and indels in 2 genes. KRAS mutations were the most common mutation found in 16% of patients followed by NRAS and BRAF mutations. TP53 somatic mutations appeared to be more common in CA but lacked significance. This proof-of-principle study indicates the presence of varying underlying tumor biology between racial groups and supports the need of future prospective trials to capture these molecular characteristics

V(D)J Sequence Capture for DNA-Based Minimal Residual Disease Detection in Multiple Myeloma

Abstract Introduction Minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity after initial therapy is a strong predictor of survival in multiple myeloma. Tracking of clonal immunoglobulin V(D)J rearrangements by next generation sequencing is highly sensitive for MRD and does not require immediate analysis of fresh samples. However, previous studies have found variable rates of baseline V(D)J sequence capture, which could limit tracking. In this study, we aimed to define the sample-related and disease-related factors that influence V(D)J capture. Methods We included 177 patients with plasma cell myeloma who had available stored mononuclear cells from a baseline bone marrow aspirate. Each sample was sequenced by two assays: The LymphoTrack® VDJ assays from Invivoscribe, and our in-house myeloma panel myTYPE, as a molecular control for detectable tumor derived DNA in the samples. MyTYPE positivity was defined by one or more single nucleotide variant, insertion, deletion, translocation or copy number variation that is known to occur in myeloma. Results and discussion The V(D)J capture rate in our whole cohort was 81 %, as compared with 95 % in the myTYPE positive samples, demonstrating the importance of tumor cell content for V(D)J capture. This was confirmed in multivariate logistic regression (Figure 1), where myTYPE positivity was a strong independent predictor of V(D)J capture success, with an odds ratio (OR) of 6.61 (95 % CI 2.22-24.81, p = 0.002). Plasma cell content estimated from bone marrow aspirate smears also contributed to the multivariate model, with an OR of 1.3 for each 10 % increase in plasma cell content (95 % CI 0.96-1.84, p=0.109), but this did not reach statistical significance after accounting for the strong effect of myTYPE. Finally, having lambda light chain restricted plasma cells was a strong predictor of V(D)J capture success (OR 6.91, 95 % CI 2.4-25.32, p = 0.001). Higher V(D)J capture rate in lambda-restricted myeloma as compared with kappa-restricted was mostly driven by a difference in immunoglobulin kappa gene (IGK) rearrangement capture (73 vs. 44 %, p < 0.001). As a potential explanation, we found up to 4 unique IGK rearrangements that are amenable to capture in lambda-restricted cases, as well as dramatically lower somatic hypermutation (SHM) of the IGK variable region in clonal rearrangements, as compared with kappa-restricted cases. SHM has previously been shown to cause V(D)J capture failure by interfering with PCR primer annealing. Both of these factors can be attributed to IGK inactivation by rearrangements involving the "kappa deleting element" region, affecting both IGK alleles in lambda-restricted plasma cells (Perfetti et al, Immunology, 2004). As an explanation for low plasma cell content in the samples used in this study, we describe how the tumor cell content of bone marrow aspirates decrease gradually in sequential pulls because of hemodilution: from the initial pull used for aspirate smear, to the final pull that is commonly used for research. Supporting the important role of hemodilution, we found V(D)J capture rates of 97 % in clinical samples (early pull aspirates) from our institution that were analyzed with the same NGS assays, as long as the bone marrow plasma cell infiltration was above 5 %. V(D)J capture probability appears to be determined by two factors: The abundance of clonal cells (i.e. tumor cell content), and the degree to which clonal sequences can be amplified by the assay (which is negatively affected by SHM). Thus, increasing the tumor cell content in samples as much as practically possible (i.e., optimal bone marrow aspirates and enrichment of CD138+ plasma cells) may compensate for SHM and improve V(D)J capture rates beyond 95 %. Conclusion V(D)J capture rates of at least 95 % are feasible in multiple myeloma using LymphoTrack® NGS assays, when the sample quality is good. The most important reason for V(D)J capture failure is low tumor cell content due to bone marrow aspirate hemodilution. Optimal performance depends on the use of early pull aspirates and/or subsequent tumor cell enrichment. Figure 1: Predicting V(D)J capture. Regression lines and individual data points are colored according to myTYPE status (red = positive; blue = negative); V(D)J capture probability on the y-axis (capture yes/no on the second y-axis) and bone marrow plasma cell percentage by aspirate smear on the x-axis; split into panels according to light chain restriction (right = lambda; left = kappa). Disclosures Ho: Invivoscribe, Inc.: Honoraria. Arcila:Invivoscribe, Inc.: Consultancy, Honoraria. Jacobsen:Invivoscribe, Inc.: Employment. Huang:Invivoscribe, Inc.: Employment. Miller:Invivoscribe, Inc.: Employment, Equity Ownership. Landgren:Pfizer: Consultancy; Karyopharm: Consultancy; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Merck: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Takeda: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding

Mytype: A Capture Based Sequencing Approach to Detect Somatic Mutations, Copy Number Changes and IGH Translocations in Multiple Myeloma

At diagnosis, Multiple Myeloma (MM) is traditionally classified into two clinical and prognostic subgroups groups on the basis of initiating cytogenetic abnormalities: IGH translocations and hyperdiploidy. Currently, these events are clinically ascertained by Fluorescent In-Situ Hybridization (FISH). In recent years, comprehensive genome profiling studies have shown that MM pathogenesis is defined by a spectrum of acquired somatic lesions, many of which are biologically and clinically relevant. To this effect, targeted gene sequencing approaches are becoming routine in the upfront diagnostic settings. Here we present myTYPE, a MM-specific targeted next generation sequencing panel to identify germline and somatic substitutions, indels, Copy Number Aberrations (CNA) and IGH translocations. Methods A multiplex bait panel was designed to capture the exons of 120 genes implicated in MM pathogenesis, entire IGH locus as well as genome wide representation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (1 in 3Mb) to enable detection of arm level copy number events and recurrent focal events. These 120 genes were selected on the basis of 1) frequently mutated and driver genes in MM 2) genes in important signaling pathways, e.g the NFKB pathway 3) treatment targets and candidate genes for drug resistance, e.g. cereblon.To validate the efficacy of the assay, 16 constitutional bone marrow samples and 18 tumor samples were sequenced using myTYPE. For validation, 6/18 tumor/normal pairs sequenced using myTYPE were subject to WGS and remaining 12/18 tumor samples were subject to FISH. After sequencing, we obtained an overall median target coverage of 815x. Results After alignment, substitutions and indels were called using Caveman, Pindel and Strelka. CNAs were identified using Facets and IGH translocations were identified using Delly along with a modified version of BRASS. Below is a description of the genomic abnormalities captured by the myTYPE assay. SNVs and Indels For the 6 tumor/normal pairs sequenced using myTYPE and WGS, we obtained a total of 21 (median = 3) non-synonymous mutations using myTYPE. When limiting the WGS calls to myTYPE targets, we recovered 20/21 non-synonymous mutations identified by myTYPE. These involved SNVs and indels in key MM related drivers including NRAS, KRAS, FAM46C and TP53 among others. For the mutations identified by both myTYPE and WGS, there was a high correlation between the variant VAFs, R2 = 0.99 and as expected is better in capturing subclonal mutations. IGH rearrangements and Copy Number Aberrations (CNA) Next we compared myTYPE and WGS results for recurrent CNAs in MM. We specifically looked at deletions of 1p, 13p, 16q, 17p and gains of 1q, 11q and found a 100% concordance of these aberrations identified by both assays. The remaining 12 samples sequenced using myTYPE also had orthogonal FISH. myTYPE identified a total of 7 IGH rearrangements, 4 of which are also reported by FISH. Three additional t(11;14) translocations were uniquely identified by myTYPE in cases that remained clinically uncharacterized. FISH was also used to probe deletions in 17q, 13q, 1p and 1q gain. All aberrations identified by FISH were also identified in myType. Additionally, 13q- in four samples and 1p- in one sample were uniquely identified by myTYPE. Conclusion In summary, we present a targeted assay capable of identifying somatic mutations, CNAs and IGH translocations of prognostic and diagnostic relevance in MM. When compared to conventional assays currently used in clinical practice, myTYPE identified at least one disease defining alterations in all samples screened. Evaluation of sensitivity and specificity will require larger clinical cohorts. Importantly, myTYPE enables comprehensive profiling, large sample multiplexing and short turn around times which renders it as an optimal assay for utilisation in the upfront clinical setting

Baseline identification of clonal V(D)J sequences for DNA-based minimal residual disease detection in multiple myeloma.

Tracking of clonal immunoglobulin V(D)J rearrangement sequences by next generation sequencing is highly sensitive for minimal residual disease in multiple myeloma. However, previous studies have found variable rates of V(D)J sequence identification at baseline, which could limit tracking. Here, we aimed to define the factors influencing the identification of clonal V(D)J sequences. Bone marrow mononuclear cells from 177 myeloma patients underwent V(D)J sequencing by the LymphoTrack assays (Invivoscribe). As a molecular control for tumor cell content, we sequenced the samples using our in-house myeloma panel myTYPE. V(D)J sequence clonality was identified in 81% of samples overall, as compared with 95% in samples where tumor-derived DNA was detectable by myTYPE. Clonality was detected more frequently in patients with lambda-restricted disease, mainly because of increased detection of kappa gene rearrangements. Finally, we describe how the tumor cell content of bone marrow aspirates decrease gradually in sequential pulls because of hemodilution: From the initial pull used for aspirate smear, to the final pull that is commonly used for research. In conclusion, baseline clonality detection rates of 95% or higher are feasible in multiple myeloma. Optimal performance depends on the use of good quality aspirates and/or subsequent tumor cell enrichment

Capture Rate of V(D)J Sequencing for Minimal Residual Disease Detection in Multiple Myeloma

Abstract Purpose: Minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity is a strong predictor for outcome in multiple myeloma. To assess V(D)J clonotype capture using the updated Adaptive next-generation sequencing (NGS) MRD assay in a clinical setting, we analyzed baseline and follow-up samples from patients with multiple myeloma who achieved deep clinical responses. Experimental Design: A total of 159 baseline and 31 follow-up samples from patients with multiple myeloma were sequenced using the NGS MRD assay. Baseline samples were also sequenced using a targeted multiple myeloma panel (myTYPE). We estimated ORs with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for clonotypes detection using logistic regression. Results: The V(D)J clonotype capture rate was 93% in baseline samples with detectable genomic aberrations, indicating presence of tumor DNA, assessed through myTYPE. myTYPE-positive samples had significantly higher V(D)J clonotype detection rates in univariate (OR, 7.3; 95% CI, 2.8–22.6) and multivariate analysis (OR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.4–16.9; P = 0.016). Higher disease burden was associated with higher probability of V(D)J clonotype capture, meanwhile no such association was found for age, gender, or type of heavy or light immunoglobulin chain. All V(D)J clonotypes detected at baseline were detected in MRD-positive samples indicating that the V(D)J clonotypes remained stable and did not undergo further rearrangements during follow-up. Of the 31 posttreatment samples, 12 were MRD-negative using the NGS MRD assay. Conclusions: NGS for V(D)J rearrangements in multiple myeloma offers a reliable and sensitive method for MRD tracking with high detection rates in the clinical setting

Comprehensive detection of recurring genomic abnormalities: a targeted sequencing approach for multiple myeloma

Recent genomic research efforts in multiple myeloma have revealed clinically relevant molecular subgroups beyond conventional cytogenetic classifications. Implementing these advances in clinical trial design and in routine patient care requires a new generation of molecular diagnostic tools. Here, we present a custom capture next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel designed to identify rearrangements involving the IGH locus, arm level, and focal copy number aberrations, as well as frequently mutated genes in multiple myeloma in a single assay. We sequenced 154 patients with plasma cell disorders and performed a head-to-head comparison with the results from conventional clinical assays, i.e., fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarray. Our custom capture NGS panel had high sensitivity (>99%) and specificity (>99%) for detection of IGH translocations and relevant chromosomal gains and losses in multiple myeloma. In addition, the assay was able to capture novel genomic markers associated with poor outcome such as bi-allelic events involving TP53. In summary, we show that a multiple myeloma designed custom capture NGS panel can detect IGH translocations and CNAs with very high concordance in relation to FISH and SNP microarrays and importantly captures the most relevant and recurrent somatic mutations in multiple myeloma rendering this approach highly suitable for clinical application in the modern era

Evaluating serum-free light chain ratio as a biomarker for multiple myeloma

8047 Background: In 2014, the definition of multiple myeloma was updated to include serum free light chain (FLC) ratio ≥100 as a myeloma defining biomarker, based on retrospective data indicating a 2-year progression rate of 80% and a median time to progression (TTP) of 12 months associated with this marker. However, two recent studies have reported lower 2-year progression rates, 30-44%, and longer median TTP of 40 months in patients with FLC ratio ≥100. Because of the disparity in risk prediction by FLC ratio across studies, we were motivated to assess the risk of progression in patients with SMM and a FLC ratio ≥100. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed with SMM at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center between January 2000 and December 2017. Diagnosis of SMM and progression to MM was defined according to the International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) criteria at the time of diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess TTP and generate survival curves, with log-rank test for comparison between groups. Results: A total of 438 patients were included in the study, with a median follow-up time of 52 months. While all patients with a FLC ratio ≥100 (n = 66) had elevated involved FLC levels, 35 (53%) had an involved FLC concentration > 100 mg/L. Per current diagnostic criteria, we only included patients with an involved FLC concentration > 100 mg/L in the FLC ratio ≥100 group, and found a median TTP of 31 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 16-59 months) and a 2-year progression rate of 49% (CI 28-63%). In a sensitivity analysis including all 66 cases with FLC ratio ≥100 (independent of involved FLC concentration), we found the median TTP to be 41 months (CI 30-72 months), compared to 101 months for those with a FLC ratio 4 years, among whom 12 patients had an involved FLC level > 100 mg/L. Ten patients (7 with involved FLC level > 100 mg/L) were followed over a period ranging from 4 to 8.5 years before eventually progressing, and 12 patients (5 with involved FLC level > 100 mg/L) were followed between 4 and 8 years and did not progress during the study period. Conclusions: While FLC ratio ≥100 is associated with a high risk of progression in patients with SMM, it does not infer an imminent risk of progression, defined by the IMWG as median TTP of 12 months and 2-year progression rate of at least 80%. On the contrary, select patients with FLC ratio ≥100 can be followed for many years without progressing and some may never progress despite long-term follow-up. These findings suggest that in patients where FLC ratio ≥100 is the only myeloma-defining event, other high-risk features as well as the evolution of FLCs over time should be considered in the decision to start a patient on treatment

Capture Rate of the Adaptive Next Generation Sequencing VDJ Assay in Multiple Myeloma

Abstract Background Minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity is a strong predictor for outcome in multiple myeloma. Next generation sequencing (NGS) for immunoglobulin heavy chain and kappa light chain VDJ rearrangements has become increasingly more common for MRD assessment. One of the known challenges with NGS for VDJ rearrangements is the vast diversity of sequences that are present, resulting in a need for a multiplex approach as common primers cannot be used to amplify all rearrangements. Also, somatic hypermutation may affect the annealing of primers and decrease the capture rate. The NGS VDJ assay developed by Adaptive Biotechnologies targets all theoretical combinations of VDJ sequences and has been used in several recent large randomized trials in multiple myeloma. The reported ~80% capture rate of the first version of the Sequenta/Adaptive 1.3 assay limited the ability to track MRD status post therapy. The assay has recently been updated and validated to increase resilience to somatic hypermutation. As there is no published reference data using this assay, we were motivated to assess VDJ capture in the clinical setting. Methods In total, 147 patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM, n=101) or relapse/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM, n=46) seen at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center were identified and included in the study. At bone marrow collection, patient samples were sorted for mononuclear cells and a subset of samples were sorted for CD138+ plasma cells. Stored bone marrow samples from these patients underwent DNA extraction and were sequenced with the Adaptive NGS VDJ assay. The same samples were also sequenced for genomic events using our internal NGS panel myTYPE. myTYPE is a custom capture panel targeting the most frequent multiple myeloma associated-somatic mutations, copy number alterations, and IGH translocations. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of detection success in relation to clinical parameters such as age, gender, percent bone marrow plasma cells, as well as immunoglobulin heavy and light chain types, and myTYPE positivity. Results There overall capture rate for a unique VDJ sequence was 80%, 75% in NDMM samples and 89% in RRMM samples, respectively. The VDJ capture rate in samples that were myTYPE positive, e.g. samples with at least one genomic aberration detected by myTYPE, was 94%. In univariate analysis, the ORs of detecting a clonal VDJ sequence was 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.5) and 1.5 (1.2-1.9) for every 10% increase in plasma cells on bone marrow aspirate and biopsy, respectively. For every 1g/dL increase in M-spike, the OR of VDJ capture was 1.6 (1.2-2.2). Samples with at least one genomic aberration detected by myTYPE had a significantly higher detection rate of VDJ sequence, the OR of VDJ capture in myTYPE positive samples was 8.8 (3.2-31.3). Conversely, age, gender, type of immunoglobulin heavy chain (IgG or IgA), or light chain type (kappa or lambda) had no significant effect on the VDJ detection rate (Table). In multivariate analysis, myTYPE positivity was found to be an independent predictor of VDJ capture, with an OR of 4.9 (1.6-18.4, p=0.009) for myTYPE positive samples. The ORs were 1.4 (1.1-2.2, p=0.052) for an increase in 10% plasma cells on bone marrow aspirate and 1.5 (0.97-2.3, p=0.083) every 1g/dL increase in M-spike. Conclusion The VDJ capture rate using the updated Adaptive NGS VDJ assay was 94% in multiple myeloma samples of high quality as indicated by myTYPE positivity. The capture success rate was higher in samples with a greater disease burden. As expected, the assay was less sensitive in samples with insufficient DNA content. Our results are supportive of the use of this NGS VDJ in multiple myeloma, but also illustrate the importance of optimal sample ascertainment and processing. Disclosures Jacob: Adaptive Biotechnologies: Employment, Equity Ownership. Korde:Amgen: Research Funding. Mailankody:Juno: Research Funding; Physician Education Resource: Honoraria; Janssen: Research Funding; Takeda: Research Funding. Lesokhin:Serametrix, inc.: Patents & Royalties: Royalties; Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria; Janssen: Research Funding; Genentech: Research Funding. Hassoun:Oncopeptides AB: Research Funding. Smith:Celgene: Consultancy, Patents & Royalties: CAR T cell therapies for MM, Research Funding. Landgren:Takeda: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Pfizer: Consultancy; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Karyopharm: Consultancy; Merck: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding

Identifying Ultra-High Risk Smoldering Multiple Myeloma

Abstract Introduction Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic precursor stage to active multiple myeloma (MM), comprised by a heterogenous group of patients with varying rates of progression. While the overall yearly progression rate is 10% the first 5 years, some patients progress at a considerably higher rate. A study from the Mayo Clinic showed that in a subset of 21 patients defined by ≥60% monoclonal bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC), 95% progressed within 2 years. It was subsequently concluded by the International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG) that patients with biomarkers predictive of a 2-year progression rate at 80%, and a median time to progression at 12 months were at ultra-high risk of progression and should be considered to have MM requiring treatment despite being asymptomatic. In 2014, ultra-high risk biomarkers were incorporated in the definition of MM, including BMPC ≥60%, free light chain (FLC) ratio ≥100 and ≥2 focal lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). While the updated myeloma definition changed the diagnosis of some patients with ultra-high risk SMM to MM, there remain patients classified as SMM progressing at a very high rate. In the present study, we aimed at further identifying ultra-high risk biomarkers predictive of a high rate of progression to active MM. Methods Patients with SMM presenting to Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center between the years 2000 and 2017 were identified and included in the study. Diagnosis of SMM and progression to MM requiring therapy was defined according to the IMWG criteria at the time of diagnosis. Baseline patient and disease characteristics were collected at date of diagnosis with SMM, including pathology reports, laboratory results and imaging data. Time to progression (TTP) was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank test for comparisons. Optimal cut-off values for continuous variables were assessed with receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Patients who had not progressed by the end of study or were lost to follow up were censored at the date of last visit. Univariate Cox regression was used to estimate risk factors for TTP with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Significant univariate risk factors were selected for multivariate Cox regression. Results A total of 444 patients were included in the study. Median follow-up time was 78 months. During the study period, 215 (48%) patients progressed to active MM, with a median TTP of 72 months. Cut-off points for BMPC, M-spike, and FLC ratio were determined with ROC curves to be 20%, 2 g/dL, and 18, respectively, for predicting high risk of progression. The following factors were associated with significantly increased risk of progression to active MM: BMPC >20%, M-spike >2g/dL, FLC ratio >18, immunoparesis with depression of 1 and 2 uninvolved immunoglobulins respectively, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, elevated beta-2-microglobulin, and low albumin (Table 1). In the multivariate model, BMPC >20% (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.6-3.9), M-spike >2g/dL (HR 3.2, CI 1.9-5.5), FLC ratio >18 (HR 1.8, CI 1.1-3.0), albumin <3.5 g/dL (HR 3.9, CI 1.5-10.0), and immunoparesis with 2 uninvolved immunoglobulins (HR 2.3, CI 1.2-4.3), predicted a decreased TTP (Table 1). A total of 12 patients had 4 or 5 of the risk factors from the multivariate model, 8 of these did not meet the 2014 IMWG criteria for MM. These patients had a significantly shorter TTP than patients with less than 4 risk factors (median TTP 11 vs 74 months, p<0.0001, Figure 1). At 16 months, 82% of these patients had progressed, and within 2 years, 91% of the patients progressed. Only one patient remained progression free after 2 years, progressing at 31 months. Of patients with less than 4 risk factors, 19% progressed within the first 2 years. Conclusion In addition to baseline BMPC >20%, M-spike >2g/dL, FLC-ratio >18, we found that albumin <3.5g/dL and immunoparesis of both uninvolved immunoglobulins at the time of diagnosis with SMM were highly predictive of a decreased TTP to MM requiring therapy. These biomarkers are readily available and routinely assessed in clinic. Patients with 4 or 5 of these risk factors represent a new ultra-high risk group that progress to active disease within 2 years, further expanding on the definition of ultra-high risk SMM. In accordance with the rationale on ultra-high risk biomarkers as criteria established by the IMWG in 2014, such patients should be considered to have MM requiring therapy. Disclosures Korde: Amgen: Research Funding. Mailankody:Janssen: Research Funding; Takeda: Research Funding; Juno: Research Funding; Physician Education Resource: Honoraria. Lesokhin:Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria; Serametrix, inc.: Patents & Royalties: Royalties; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria; Genentech: Research Funding; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen: Research Funding. Hassoun:Oncopeptides AB: Research Funding. Smith:Celgene: Consultancy, Patents & Royalties: CAR T cell therapies for MM, Research Funding. Shah:Amgen: Research Funding; Janssen: Research Funding. Mezzi:Amgen: Employment, Equity Ownership. Khurana:Amgen: Employment, Equity Ownership. Braunlin:Amgen: Employment. Werther:Amgen: Employment, Equity Ownership. Landgren:Takeda: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Karyopharm: Consultancy; Merck: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Pfizer: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding