Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings

The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0–29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0–7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6–14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5–14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal–external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82–0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide

Novel M tuberculosis Antigen-Specific T-Cells Are Early Markers of Infection and Disease Progression

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Region-of-Difference-1 gene products present opportunities for specific diagnosis of M. tuberculosis infection, yet immune responses to only two gene-products, Early Secretory Antigenic Target-6 (ESAT-6) and Culture Filtrate Protein-10 (CFP-10), have been comprehensively investigated.T-cell responses to Rv3873, Rv3878 and Rv3879c were quantified by IFN-γ-enzyme-linked-immunospot (ELISpot) in 846 children with recent household tuberculosis exposure and correlated with kinetics of tuberculin skin test (TST) and ESAT-6/CFP-10-ELISpot conversion over six months and clinical outcome over two years.Responses to Rv3873, Rv3878, and Rv3879c were present in 20-25% of contacts at enrolment. Rv3873 and Rv3879c responses were associated with and preceded TST conversion (P=0.02 and P=0.04 respectively), identifying these antigens as early targets of cell-mediated immunity following M. tuberculosis exposure. Responses to Rv3873 were additionally associated with subsequent ESAT-6/CFP-10-ELISpot conversion (P=0.04). Responses to Rv3873 and Rv3878 predicted progression to active disease (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% CI] 3.06 [1.05,8.95; P=0.04], and 3.32 [1.14,9.71; P=0.03], respectively). Presence of a BCG-vaccination scar was associated with a 67% (P=0.03) relative risk reduction for progression to active tuberculosis.These RD1-derived antigens are early targets of cellular immunity following tuberculosis exposure and T-cells specific for these antigens predict progression to active tuberculosis suggesting diagnostic and prognostic utility

Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings.

The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0-29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0-7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6-14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5-14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal-external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide

Exploring new physics frontiers through numerical relativity

The demand to obtain answers to highly complex problems within strong-field gravity has been met with significant progress in the numerical solution of Einstein's equations - along with some spectacular results - in various setups. We review techniques for solving Einstein's equations in generic spacetimes, focusing on fully nonlinear evolutions but also on how to benchmark those results with perturbative approaches. The results address problems in high-energy physics, holography, mathematical physics, fundamental physics, astrophysics and cosmology