Machine-directed gravitational-wave counterpart discovery

Joint observations in electromagnetic and gravitational waves shed light on the physics of objects and surrounding environments with extreme gravity that are otherwise unreachable via siloed observations in each messenger. However, such detections remain challenging due to the rapid and faint nature of counterparts. Protocols for discovery and inference still rely on human experts manually inspecting survey alert streams and intuiting optimal usage of limited follow-up resources. Strategizing an optimal follow-up program requires adaptive sequential decision-making given evolving light curve data that (i) maximizes a global objective despite incomplete information and (ii) is robust to stochasticity introduced by detectors/observing conditions. Reinforcement learning (RL) approaches allow agents to implicitly learn the physics/detector dynamics and the behavior policy that maximize a designated objective through experience. To demonstrate the utility of such an approach for the kilonova follow-up problem, we train a toy RL agent for the goal of maximizing follow-up photometry for the true kilonova among several contaminant transient light curves. In a simulated environment where the agent learns online, it achieves 3x higher accuracy compared to a random strategy. However, it is surpassed by human agents by up to a factor of 2. This is likely because our hypothesis function (Q that is linear in state-action features) is an insufficient representation of the optimal behavior policy. More complex agents could perform at par or surpass human experts. Agents like these could pave the way for machine-directed software infrastructure to efficiently respond to next generation detectors, for conducting science inference and optimally planning expensive follow-up observations, scalably and with demonstrable performance guarantees.Comment: Submitted to the Astrophysical Journal; Comments welcome

The Effect of COVID-19 Lockdowns on the Air Pollution of Urban Areas of Central and Southern Chile

We present the effects of the confinement and physical distancing policies applied during the COVID-19 pandemic on the concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO, NO2 and O3 in 16 cities in central and southern Chile. The period between March and May in 2020 was compared with the corresponding months during 2017–2019, using surface data and satellite information. The relative percent changes in the concentration of atmospheric pollutants, and the meteorological variables observed between these two periods were used to quantify the effects of the lockdowns on the local air quality of the urban areas studied. The results showed statistically significant changes in 11 of the 16 cities. Significant relative changes between +14% and –33% were observed for PM10 in 9 cities; while statistically significant changes between –6% and –48% were evident for PM2.5 in 10 cities. Significant decreases between –27% and –55%, were observed in 4 cities in which NO2 data were available; while significant increases in O3, between 18% and 43%, were found in 4 of the 5 cities with available data. The local meteorological variables did not show significant changes between both periods. In all the cities studied, one of the main PM sources is wood burning for residential heating. Although the quarantine imposed during the health emergency could have induced an increase in residential emissions, these were compensated with the reductions in vehicular and/or industrial emissions. Therefore, these results should be carefully interpreted and should inspire new research considering the social, cultural, and economic factors that could alter the common emission patterns and air quality of urban centers

Estrategia de intervención sobre enfermedades hipertensivas en San Andrés y Providencia

Se propone una estrategia integral para abordar las enfermedades hipertensivas, enfocada en la prevención, detección temprana y manejo adecuado. El objetivo es mejorar la calidad de vida y reducir la mortalidad en San Andrés y Providencia. La implementación de la propuesta mejoraría la salud de la población y la eficiencia del sistema de salud. Se incluyen estrategias respaldadas por evidencia científica, como programas de educación, detección temprana y atención integral. La evaluación de costo-efectividad y la colaboración de diversos actores son elementos clave para su éxitoAn integrated strategy is proposed to address hypertensive diseases, focusing on prevention, early detection, and proper management. The goal is to improve the quality of life and reduce mortality in San Andrés and Providencia. Implementing the proposal would enhance population health and the efficiency of the healthcare system. Evidence-based strategies, such as education programs, early detection, and comprehensive care, are included. Cost-effectiveness evaluation and collaboration among various stakeholders are key elements for its success

Helicopter nonlinear aerodynamics modelling using VehicleSim

This work describes a model developed to analyze the aerodynamic loads on a helicopter model on conventional configuration implemented with VehicleSim, a multibody software specialized in modelling mechanical systems composed by rigid bodies. The rotors are articulated and the main rotor implementation takes into account flap, lag and feather degrees of freedom for each of the equispaced blades as well as their dynamic couplings. This article presents an aerodynamic model that allows to simulate hover, climb, descent and forward flight as well as trajectories under the action of several aerodynamics loads. The aerodynamic model has been built up using blade element theory. All the dynamics, aerodynamic forces and control action are embedded in a single code, being this an advantage as the compilation time is greatly reduced. The software used in this work, VehicleSim does not need external connection to other software. This new tool may be used to develop robust control methods. The nonlinear equations of the system which can be very complex, are obtained, in particular, this article presents the equations for flap and lag degrees of freedom in hover flight. The control approach used in here consists of PID controllers (proportional, integral, derivative), which allow to use VehicleSim command exclusively to simulate several helicopter flight conditions. The results obtained are shown to agree with the expected behaviour

Deep Synoptic Array science I: discovery of the host galaxy of FRB 20220912A

We report the detection and interferometric localization of the repeating fast radio burst (FRB) source FRB 20220912A during commissioning observations with the Deep Synoptic Array (DSA-110). Two bursts were detected from FRB 20220912A, one each on 2022 October 18 and 2022 October 25. The best-fit position is (R.A. J2000, decl. J2000) = (23:09:04.9, +48:42:25.4), with a 90% confidence error ellipse of $\pm2$ arcsec and $\pm1$ arcsec in right ascension and declination respectively. The two bursts have disparate polarization properties and temporal profiles. We find a Faraday rotation measure that is consistent with the low value of $+0.6$ rad m$^{-2}$ reported by CHIME/FRB. The DSA-110 localization overlaps with the galaxy PSO J347.2702+48.7066 at a redshift $z=0.0771$, which we identify as the likely host. PSO J347.2702$+$48.7066 has a stellar mass of approximately $10^{10}M_{\odot}$, modest internal dust extinction, and a star-formation rate likely in excess of $0.1\,M_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$. The host-galaxy contribution to the dispersion measure is likely $\lesssim50$ pc cm$^{-3}$. The FRB 20220912A source is therefore likely viewed along a tenuous plasma column through the host galaxy.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, submitted to AAS Journal

Constraining the Kilonova Rate with Zwicky Transient Facility Searches Independent of Gravitational Wave and Short Gamma-ray Burst Triggers

The first binary neutron star merger, GW170817, was accompanied by a radioactivity-powered optical/infrared transient called a kilonova. To date, no compelling kilonova has been found during optical surveys of the sky, independent of gravitational-wave triggers. In this work, we searched the first 23 months of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data stream for candidate kilonovae in the form of rapidly evolving transients. We combined ZTF alert queries with forced point-spread-function photometry and nightly flux stacking to increase our sensitivity to faint and fast transients. Automatic queries yielded $>11,200$ candidates, 24 of which passed quality checks and strict selection criteria based on a grid of kilonova models tailored for both binary neutron star and neutron star-black hole mergers. None of the candidates in our sample was deemed a possible kilonova after thorough vetting, catalog cross-matching, and study of their color evolution. The sources that passed our selection criteria are dominated by Galactic cataclysmic variables. In addition, we identified two fast transients at high Galactic latitude, one of which is the confirmed afterglow of long-duration GRB190106A, and the other is a possible cosmological afterglow. Using a survey simulation code, we constrained the kilonova rate for a range of models including top-hat and linearly decaying light curves and synthetic light curves obtained with radiative transfer simulations. For prototypical GW170817-like kilonovae, we constrain the rate to be $R < 1775$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ at 95% confidence level by requiring at least 2 high-significance detections. By assuming a population of kilonovae with the same geometry and composition of GW170817 observed under a uniform viewing angle distribution, we obtained a constraint on the rate of $R < 4029$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$.Comment: Submitted for publication in Ap

Fast-transient Searches in Real Time with ZTFReST: Identification of Three Optically Discovered Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows and New Constraints on the Kilonova Rate

The most common way to discover extragalactic fast transients, which fade within a few nights in the optical, is via follow-up of gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave triggers. However, wide-field surveys have the potential to identify rapidly fading transients independently of such external triggers. The volumetric survey speed of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) makes it sensitive to objects as faint and fast fading as kilonovae, the optical counterparts to binary neutron star mergers, out to almost 200 Mpc. We introduce an open-source software infrastructure, the ZTF REaltime Search and Triggering, ZTFReST, designed to identify kilonovae and fast transients in ZTF data. Using the ZTF alert stream combined with forced point-spread-function photometry, we have implemented automated candidate ranking based on their photometric evolution and fitting to kilonova models. Automated triggering, with a human in the loop for monitoring, of follow-up systems has also been implemented. In 13 months of science validation, we found several extragalactic fast transients independently of any external trigger, including two supernovae with post-shock cooling emission, two known afterglows with an associated gamma-ray burst (ZTF20abbiixp, ZTF20abwysqy), two known afterglows without any known gamma-ray counterpart (ZTF20aajnksq, ZTF21aaeyldq), and three new fast-declining sources (ZTF20abtxwfx, ZTF20acozryr, ZTF21aagwbjr) that are likely associated with GRB200817A, GRB201103B, and GRB210204A. However, we have not found any objects that appear to be kilonovae. We constrain the rate of GW170817-like kilonovae to R &lt; 900 Gpc-3 yr-1 (95% confidence). A framework such as ZTFReST could become a prime tool for kilonova and fast-transient discovery with the Vera Rubin Observatory

Constraining the Kilonova Rate with Zwicky Transient Facility Searches Independent of Gravitational Wave and Short Gamma-Ray Burst Triggers

The first binary neutron star merger, GW170817, was accompanied by a radioactivity-powered optical/infrared transient called a kilonova. To date, no compelling kilonova has been found in all-sky optical surveys, independently of short gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave triggers. In this work, we searched the first 23 months of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data stream for candidate kilonovae in the form of rapidly evolving transients. We combined ZTF alert queries with forced point-spread-function photometry and nightly flux stacking to increase our sensitivity to faint and fast transients. Automatic queries yielded &gt;11,200 candidates, 24 of which passed quality checks and selection criteria based on a grid of kilonova models tailored for both binary neutron star and neutron star-black hole mergers. None of the candidates in our sample was deemed a possible kilonova after thorough vetting. The sources that passed our selection criteria are dominated by Galactic cataclysmic variables. We identified two fast transients at high Galactic latitude, one of which is the confirmed afterglow of long-duration GRB 190106A, the other is a possible cosmological afterglow. Using a survey simulation code, we constrained the kilonova rate for a range of models including top-hat, linearly decaying light curves, and synthetic light curves obtained with radiative transfer simulations. For prototypical GW170817-like kilonovae, we constrain the rate to be Gpc-3 yr-1 (95% confidence). By assuming a population of kilonovae with the same geometry and composition of GW170817 observed under a uniform viewing angle distribution, we obtained a constraint on the rate of R &lt; 4029 Gpc-3 yr-1. © 2020. The American Astronomical Society

Optical follow-up of the neutron star-black hole mergers S200105ae and S200115j

LIGO and Virgo’s third observing run revealed the first neutron star–black hole (NSBH) merger candidates in gravitational waves. These events are predicted to synthesize r-process elements1,2 creating optical/near-infrared ‘kilonova’ emission. The joint gravitational wave and electromagnetic detection of an NSBH merger could be used to constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter3, and independently measure the local expansion rate of the Universe4. Here, we present the optical follow-up and analysis of two of the only three high-significance NSBH merger candidates detected to date, S200105ae and S200115j, with the Zwicky Transient Facility5. The Zwicky Transient Facility observed ~48% of S200105ae and ~22% of S200115j’s localization probabilities, with observations sensitive to kilonovae brighter than −17.5 mag fading at 0.5 mag d−1 in the g- and r-bands; extensive searches and systematic follow-up of candidates did not yield a viable counterpart. We present state-of-the-art kilonova models tailored to NSBH systems that place constraints on the ejecta properties of these NSBH mergers. We show that with observed depths of apparent magnitude ~22 mag, attainable in metre-class, wide-field-of-view survey instruments, strong constraints on ejecta mass are possible, with the potential to rule out low mass ratios, high black hole spins and large neutron star radii

GROWTH on S190814bv: Deep Synoptic Limits on the Optical/Near-infrared Counterpart to a Neutron Star-Black Hole Merger

On 2019 August 14, the Advanced LIGO and Virgo interferometers detected the high-significance gravitational wave (GW) signal S190814bv. The GW data indicated that the event resulted from a neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger, or potentially a low-mass binary BH merger. Due to the low false-alarm rate and the precise localization (23 deg2 at 90%), S190814bv presented the community with the best opportunity yet to directly observe an optical/near-infrared counterpart to an NSBH merger. To search for potential counterparts, the GROWTH Collaboration performed real-time image subtraction on six nights of public Dark Energy Camera images acquired in the 3 weeks following the merger, covering &gt;98% of the localization probability. Using a worldwide network of follow-up facilities, we systematically undertook spectroscopy and imaging of optical counterpart candidates. Combining these data with a photometric redshift catalog, we ruled out each candidate as the counterpart to S190814bv and placed deep, uniform limits on the optical emission associated with S190814bv. For the nearest consistent GW distance, radiative transfer simulations of NSBH mergers constrain the ejecta mass of S190814bv to be M ej &lt; 0.04 M o˙ at polar viewing angles, or M ej &lt; 0.03 M o˙ if the opacity is κ &lt; 2 cm2g-1. Assuming a tidal deformability for the NS at the high end of the range compatible with GW170817 results, our limits would constrain the BH spin component aligned with the orbital momentum to be χ &lt; 0.7 for mass ratios Q &lt; 6, with weaker constraints for more compact NSs. © 2020. The American Astronomical Society