Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

The Effect of Ketoconazole on Post-Burn Inflammation, Hypermetabolism and Clinical Outcomes

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Hypercortisolemia has been suggested as a primary hormonal mediator of whole-body catabolism following severe burn injury. Ketoconazole, an anti-fungal agent, inhibits cortisol synthesis. We, therefore, studied the effect of ketoconazole on post-burn cortisol levels and the hyper-catabolic response in a prospective randomized trial (block randomization 2∶1).</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>Fifty-five severely burned pediatric patients with >30% total body surface area (TBSA) burns were enrolled in this trial. Patients were randomized to receive standard care plus either placebo (controls, n = 38) or ketoconazole (n = 23). Demographics, clinical data, serum hormone levels, serum cytokine expression profiles, organ function, hypermetabolism measures, muscle protein synthesis, incidence of wound infection sepsis, and body composition were obtained throughout the acute hospital course. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher’s exact test, Student’s t-test, and parametric and non-parametric two-way repeated measures analysis of variance where applicable. Patients were similar in demographics, age, and TBSA burned. Ketoconazole effectively blocked cortisol production, as indicated by normalization of the 8-fold elevation in urine cortisol levels [F(1, 376) = 85.34, <em>p</em><.001] with the initiation of treatment. However, there were no significant differences in the inflammatory response, acute-phase proteins, body composition, muscle protein breakdown or synthesis, or organ function between groups.</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Both groups were markedly hypermetabolic and catabolic throughout the acute hospital stay. Normalization of hypercortisolemia with ketoconazole therapy had no effect on whole-body catabolism or the post-burn inflammatory or hypermetabolic response, suggesting that hypercortisolemia does not play a central role in the post-burn hypermetabolic catabolic response.</p> <h3>Trial Registration</h3><p>ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00675714">NCT00675714</a>; and <a href="http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00673309">NCT00673309</a></p> </div