TIME SERIES FORECAST MODELS FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY

Technicalities in foreign exchange forecasting have been of interest to investors and academia, particularly in a developing economy. Data of foreign exchange are time series in nature and several techniques have been developed to modeling and forecasting foreign exchange rates. In this study, Nigeria's foreign exchange rate against three world-leading currencies (US Dollars, Euro and Pounds Sterling) are modeled with ARIMA, Auto. arima, Box-Cox, random walk forecast, and Exponential Smoothing and subjected to comparative tests using  Diebold-Mariano criteria with a modern model time series model. The empirical analysis shows that that the modern model outperforms some of the other techniques in forecasting Nigeria exchange rates against world-leading currencies particularly when the forecast horizon is low

Hydraulic Relationships of the Ikpoba River for Flood Studies

Flooding is a temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of normally dry areas of overflow of inland or tidal waters or from extreme and rapid accumulation of runoff. Flooding phenomenon is considered the world worst global hazard in terms of magnitude, occurrence and geographical spread, loss of life and property, displacement of people and socio-economic activities. In the tropical and sub-tropical regions, severe flooding hazards resulting from heavy thunderstorms, torrential downpours, hurricanes and tidal waves are yearly occurrences. Flood disasters are said to account for one-third of all natural catastrophes throughout the world by number and economic losses and are responsible for more than half of the facility damage (Askew, 1999). In Nigeria, many urban floods occur because of excessive extreme rainfalls improper land use and poor drainages. It has been estimated that more than seven hundred thousand hectares of useful land for agricultural and residential purposes are either lost or rendered useless due to annual floods (David and Aggrawal 2008). The Niger Delta region of Nigeria is mostly flat low lying swampy basin resulting in severe regular flooding which has led to a limited land area for residence. Benin City experiences flash Flood and Flood pondages. Areas are inundated for more than two hours during flood episodes with an average water height of one meter (Ogbonna, et al 2011). As a result of flood events, every year government spends huge sums of money on compensation for flood victims, yet, the problems are unabated. Decision makers need supporting tools such as knowledge of extreme flood magnitudes and probability of re-occurrence, flood stages and river discharge relationships to enable decisions on a particular line of action which would be most adequate in mitigating against flood This study seeks to derive hydraulic relationships for the Ikpoba River which can serve as decision support tools that can be used in evaluating flood damages in suburban-areas of  Benin-city metropolis. The specific objectives are to: i. Determine the exceedance frequency discharge relationship for the Ikpoba River.ii. Establish depths for longitudinal and cross sectional profiles of the Ikpoba Riveriii. Derive the stage discharge relationship of the Ikpoba River

Maximizing the incorporation of cassava flour as an adjunct in bread baking in Nigeria

Bread is popular around the world and is one of the world’s oldest foods. Bread is usually made from common wheat-flour dough. Till date most people are not familiar with other types of bread apart from that made from 100% wheat flour. When a part of wheat flour is replaced with flours from other food sources (yam, cassava, etc) the wheat gluten is automatically reduced. This study aimed at re-examining the approval of ten percent (10%) cassava flour inclusion in bread baking in Nigeria and evaluating higher % substitutions, with a view to increasing cassava carrying capacity for producing acceptable bread. The water absorption capacity (WAC) of wheat, cassava and composite flours ranged from 62.7 to 79% while oil absorption capacity (OAC) ranged from 4.5 to 72%. As cassava percent inclusion increased both WAC and OAC increased. Bread loaves produced from 10-20% inclusions without egg white had sensory scores of 3.2 to 3.9 and were significantly (p < 0.05) better than 25-30% wheat cassava composite bread loaves. In all sensory attributes, 10-20% cassava inclusion, with added egg white, produced bread loaves which were as good as 100% wheat bread. In terms of taste, colour, odour and texture 25-30% composite bread loaves had identical sensory values. This study showed that bread of acceptable quality can be produced from wheat flour substituted with up to 30% cassava flour

Determinants of psychoactive substance use among incarcerated delinquents in Nigeria

The objective of the study was to identify the prevalence of psychoactive substance use among incarcerated delinquents in Nigeria and its determinants. The total inmate population of 401 individuals were interviewed over a period of four weeks using an interviewer administeredquestionnaire that assessed for socio demographic, forensic, and drug use history among other variables. All the respondents were males, with a mean age of 20.6 ± 3.1 years, ranging from 12 to 39 years and had spent an average of 16.1 ± 9.9 months. The average age of first use was 12.6± 5.9 years. The prevalence of lifetime and current use of any substance was 88.0% and 64.3% respectively. Prior arrest, being sexually active and family drug use significantly (p&lt;0.05) predicted lifetime use of any substance while being raised in a monogamous family was protective. Priorarrest, family drug use, and being sexually active significantly (p&lt;0.05) increased lifetime use of illicit substances while being raised from a monogamous home significantly (p&lt;0.05) reduced same. Prior arrest and substance use before incarceration significantly (p&lt;0.05) predicted currentuse of any substance. Being sexually active and substance use before incarceration significantly (P&lt;0.05) predicted current use of illicit substances while high self esteem and being the first born was protective. Since substance use prevalence is high among incarcerated delinquents,the incorporation of substance abuse screening and treatment as part of their programmeme is advocated.Key Words: Substance use, delinquents, incarceration, Nigeria

Cassava root peel as a replacement for maize in diets for growing pigs: effects on energy and nutrient digestibility, performance and carcass characteristics

Two experiments were conducted to evaluate cassava root peel (CRP) as diet component for fattening pigs. In the first experiment, ten male pigs were used to investigate the nutrient digestibility and the nutritive value of CRP as replacement for maize in the diet at 0 %, 30 %, 40 %, 50 % and 60 %, while supplementing free amino acids (fAA). During two experimental periods, faeces were quantitatively collected and analysed for chemical composition. In the second experiment, 40 pigs received the same diets as in Experiment 1, and daily feed intake and weekly weight changes were recorded. Four pigs per diet were slaughtered at 70 kg body weight to evaluate carcass traits. Digestibility of dry and organic matter, crude protein, acid detergent fibre and gross energy were depressed (p0.05) at 60 % CRP; digestible energy content (MJ kg^(−1) DM) was 15.4 at 0 % CRP and 12.7 at 60 % CRP. In the second experiment, CRP inclusion had only a small impact on feed intake, weight gain and feed conversion ratio (p0.05) as well as on the length of the small intestine and the Longissimus dorsi muscle area. The missing correlation of daily weight gain and feed-to-gain ratio up to a CRP inclusion of 40 % indicates that negative effects of CRP on pig growth can be avoided by respecting upper feeding limits. Hence, a combined use of CRP and fAA can reduce feeding costs for small-scale pig farmers in countries where this crop-by product is available in large amounts

A purified lectin with larvicidal activity from a woodland mushroom, Agaricus semotus Fr.

This study investigated the larvicidal activity on Culex quinquefasciatus of lectin purified from fresh fruiting bodies of woodland mushroom, Agaricus semotus. A. semotus lectin (ASL) was purified via ion-exchange chromatography on DEAE-cellulose A-25 and size exclusion chromatography on Sephadex G-100 matrix. Molecular weight (16.6 kDa) was estimated by sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE). The effects of temperature, pH, metal chelation- and larvicidal activity of ASL were also investigated. The ASL indifferently agglutinated the erythrocytes of the human ABO blood system and was stable at acidic pH and below 50 °C whereas 66% of its activity was lost at 60 °C with complete inactivation at 70 °C. ASL is a metalloprotein requiring barium ion as chelation of metals by 50 mM EDTA rendered the lectin inactive, while the addition of BaCl2, among other metal salts, restored the activity. ASL showed larvicidal activity against C. quinquefasciatus larvae after 24 h with a mortality of 5 and 95% at 5 and 25 mg/mL respectively, and LC50 of 13.80 mg/mL. This study concluded that purified A. semotus lectin showed impressive larvicidal activity, which could be exploited in its development as an insecticidal agent

Potentials of 3D extrusion‐based printing in resolving food processing challenges: A perspective review

Three-dimensional (3D) printing has promising application potentials in improving food product manufacturing, increasingly helping in simplifying the supply chain, as well as expanding the utilization of food materials. To further understand the current situation of 3D food printing in providing food engineering solutions with customized design, the authors checked recently conducted reviews and considered the extrusion-based type to deserve additional literature synthesis. In this perspective review, therefore, we scoped the potentials of 3D extrusion-based printing in resolving food processing challenges. The evolving trends of 3D food printing technologies, fundamentals of extrusion processes, food printer, and printing enhancement, (extrusion) food systems, algorithm development, and associated food rheological properties were discussed. The (extrusion) mechanism in 3D food printing involving some essentials for material flow and configuration, its uniqueness, suitability, and printability to food materials, (food material) types in the extrusion-based (3D food printing), together with essential food properties and their dynamics were also discussed. Additionally, some bottlenecks/concerns still applicable to extrusion-based 3D food printing were brainstormed. Developing enhanced calibrating techniques for 3D printing materials, and designing better methods of integrating data will help improve the algorithmic representations of printed foods. Rheological complexities associated with the extrusion-based 3D food printing require both industry and researchers to work together so as to tackle the (rheological) shifts that make (food) materials unsuitable.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Bayesian Models for Zero Truncated Count Data. Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics.

It is important to fit count data with suitable model(s), models such as Poisson Regression, Quassi Poisson, Negative Binomial, to mention but a few have been adopted by researchers to fit zero truncated count data in the past. In recent times, dedicated models for fitting zero truncated count data have been developed, and they are considered sufficient. This study proposed Bayesian multi-level Poisson and Bayesian multi-level Geometric model, Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain Generalized linear Mixed Models (MCMCglmms) of zero truncated Poisson and MCMCglmms Poisson regression model to fit health count data that is truncated at zero. Suitable model selection criteria were used to determine preferred models for fitting zero truncated data. Results obtained showed that Bayesian multi-level Poisson outperformed Bayesian multi-level Poisson Geometric model; also MCMCglmms of zero truncated Poisson outperformed MCMCglmms Poisson

Approximation techniques for maximizing likelihood functions of generalized linear mixed models for binary response data

Evaluating Maximum likelihood estimates in Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) has been a serious challenge due to some integral complexities encountered in maximizing its likelihood functions. It is computationally difficult to establish analytical solutions for the integrals. In view of this, approximation techniques would be needed. In this paper, various approximation techniques were exam-ined including Laplace approximation (LA), Penalized Quasi likelihood (PQL) and Adaptive Gauss-Hermite Quadrature (AGQ) tech-niques. The performances of these methods were evaluated through both simulated and real-life data in medicine. The simulation results showed that the Adaptive Gauss-Hermit Quadrature approach produced better estimates when compared with PQL and LA estimation techniques based on some model selection criteria

Performance of aquatic plant species for phytoremediation of arsenic-contaminated water

This study investigates the effectiveness of aquatic macrophyte and microphyte for phytoremediation of water bodies contaminated with high arsenic concentration. Water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) and two algae (Chlorodesmis sp. and Cladophora sp.) found near arsenic-enriched water bodies were used to determine their tolerance toward arsenic and their effectiveness to uptake arsenic thereby reducing organic pollution in arsenic-enriched wastewater of different concentrations. Parameters like pH, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and arsenic concentration were monitored. The pH of wastewater during the course of phytoremediation remained constant in the range of 7.3–8.4, whereas COD reduced by 50–65 % in a period of 15 days. Cladophora sp. was found to survive up to an arsenic concentration of 6 mg/L, whereas water hyacinth and Chlorodesmis sp. could survive up to arsenic concentrations of 2 and 4 mg/L, respectively. It was also found that during a retention period of 10 days under ambient temperature conditions, Cladophora sp. could bring down arsenic concentration from 6 to <0.1 mg/L, Chlorodesmis sp. was able to reduce arsenic by 40−50 %; whereas, water hyacinth could reduce arsenic by only 20 %. Cladophora sp. is thus suitable for co-treatment of sewage and arsenic-enriched brine in an algal pond having a retention time of 10 days. The identified plant species provides a simple and cost-effective method for application in rural areas affected with arsenic problem. The treated water can be used for irrigation