The Making of a Mobile Caliphate State in the African Sahel

The goal of this chapter is to thoroughly understand the context of the dominant jihadist narratives and the nature of their appeal in the Sahelian region. All these jihadist ideologies are based on a peculiar Salafi Radicalism that aimed to transform the state and society by methods of preaching and violence. Therefore, studying and analyzing the principles of the Salafist discourse as a political project helps us to understand its points of strengths and weaknesses. In addition, we can be better look at the future trends and prospects of violent jihadist groups in the African Sahel. The roots of this Islamic discourse as a political project may be attributed to what Lunay and Suarez call the “Islamic domain.” The rise of violent radical Islamism represents drive from the internal political and socioeconomic dynamics evolving in each Sahelian state. However, the struggle and rivalry of jihadist ideologies after the military defeat of Daesh in Mosul is important at a time when thousands of fighters who have survived the civil wars in Iraq, Syria, and Libya are looking for new jihadist fields

How Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election outcome was forecasted with geodemographics and public sentiment analytics

In 2015, Nigeria held one of the most fiercely contested presidential elections in the nation’s recent democratic history. The outcome of the election was expected to exert significant influence on democratic practices on the African continent. The stiffness of the contest also meant that it was difficult to predict the likely winner of the election. This paper summarizes how an empirical approach was used to forecast the outcome of the election by modeling public sentiment data-set using a geodemographic framework. Results indicate that the main electorates that determined the outcome of the election were situated in thirteen battleground states. Additionally, results showed that two years before the presidential election, Goodluck Jonathan’s public approval ratings on corruption, insecurity, and the economy (the main drivers of the 2015 election) had nose-dived across many of the battleground states. This eventually contributed toward his loss

Is the Public willing to help the Nigerian Police during the Boko Haram crisis? A look at moderating factors.

This paper sought the opinion of 200 Nigerians on their willingness to cooperate with the Police during the Boko Haram crisis. Public perceptions of Police effectiveness during the crisis, residence location, gender and religious affiliation were used as moderators. Data was analysed using an explanatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling. Results indicated a strong association between perceived effectiveness and willingness to report to the Police with respondents who question the effectiveness of the Police being less likely to be willing to report criminal activity about Boko Haram. Further to this, the impact of religion on willingness to report was at least partially mediated by perceived effectiveness of the Police with the results showing that Christian respondents perceived the Police as less effective. Females and those living in the North were significantly less willing to report criminal activity to the Police The findings are then discussed in relation to the BH crises and directions for future research are given

The Changing Role of Natural Gas in Nigeria

Nigeria is richly endowed with energy resources, and the Government has been making large profits from their export. However, windfall revenues have also been affecting the Government’s responsiveness and accountability towards the people and they have brought it into collusive relationship with international oil and gas companies operating in the country. A skewed distribution of petroleum resources costs and benefits, as well as the dependence on exports exposing the public finances to volatility in the international markets have represented further major issues. As a result, energy access and power generation still represent urgent issues for action in the country. Solid biomass accounts for 74% of the primary energy consumption, while the electrification rate stands at 34% in rural areas. Active power plants are mainly gas-fired, but they face capacity, maintenance, and financial constraints. While historically natural gas has been disregarded or flared into the atmosphere because it was considered a by-product of oil due to lacking market conditions and processing capacity, today the development of a domestic market for natural gas is seen as a key priority to guarantee energy security and boost industrial development in Nigeria. A more efficient and equitable governance of the sector and management of export revenues can play a major role in this sense. In this context, this paper highlights the main current issues and underpins key policy conditions for this transition to take place in Nigeria