Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene

Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (<1.5 per doubling CO2)

Incidence of and socio-biologic risk factors for spontaneous preterm birth in HIV positive Nigerian women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have identified HIV as a leading contributor to preterm delivery and its associated morbidity and mortality. However little or no information exists in our sub-region on this subject. Identifying the factors associated with preterm delivery in HIV positive women in our country and sub-region will not only prevent mother to child transmission of HIV virus but will also reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with prematurity and low birth weight. This study was designed to determine the incidence and risk factors for preterm delivery in HIV positive Nigerians. METHOD: The required data for this retrospective study was extracted from the data base of a cohort study of the outcome of prevention of mother to child transmission at the Nigerian Institute of Medical Research, Lagos. Only data of women that met the eligibility of spontaneous delivery after 20 weeks of gestation were included. Ethical approval was obtained from the Institution’s Ethical Review Board. RESULTS: 181 women out of the 1626 eligible for inclusion into the study had spontaneous preterm delivery (11.1%). The mean birth weight was 3.1 ± 0.4 kg, with 10.3% having LBW. Spontaneous preterm delivery was found to be significantly associated with unmarried status (cOR: 1.7;1.52-2.57), baseline CD4 count <200 cells/mm(3)(cOR: 1.8; 1.16-2.99), presence of opportunistic infection at delivery (cOR: 2.2;1.23-3.57), multiple pregnancy (cOR 10.4; 4.24 – 26.17), use of PI based triple ARV therapy (eOR 10.2; 5.52 – 18.8) in the first trimester (cOR 2.5; 1.77 – 3.52) on univariate analysis. However after multivariate analysis controlling for potential confounding variables including low birth weight, only multiple pregnancy (aOR: 8.6; CI: 6.73 – 12.9), presence of opportunistic infection at delivery (aOR: 1.9; CI: 1.1 – 5.7), and 1st trimester exposure to PI based triple therapy (aOR: 5.4; CI: 3.4 – 7.8) retained their significant association with preterm delivery. CONCLUSION: The spontaneous preterm delivery rate among our cohort was 11.1%. HIV positive women with multiple pregnancies, symptomatic HIV infection at delivery and first trimester fetal exposure to PI based triple therapy were found to be at risk of spontaneous preterm delivery. Early booking and non-use of PI based triple therapy in the first trimester will significantly reduce the risk of preterm delivery

The 4 Youth By Youth mHealth Photo Verification App for HIV Self-testing in Nigeria: Qualitative Analysis of User Experiences.

BACKGROUND: Despite the global expansion of HIV self-testing (HIVST), many research studies still rely on self-reported outcomes. New HIVST verification methods are needed, especially in resource-limited settings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the user experience of a mobile health (mHealth) app to enhance HIVST result reporting and verification. METHODS: Semistructured, in-depth interviews were used to evaluate the user experience of the 4 Youth By Youth mHealth photo verification app for HIVST. We used a think-aloud approach, and participants performed usability tasks and completed a qualitative exit interview. The app included HIV educational resources, step-by-step video instructions for performing HIVST, a 20-minute timer, a guide on interpreting results with linkages to care, an offline version, and a photo verification system. Demographic characteristics were reported by using descriptive statistics. Qualitative data were analyzed by using thematic analysis. RESULTS: A total of 19 users-12 women and 7 men-with a mean age of 22 years, participated in the study. The users completed the usability tasks and successfully uploaded a photo of their test results by using the app without assistance. Four main themes were identified in the data. First, in terms of user-friendly design, the participants noted the user-friendly features of the offline version and the app's low data use. However, some wanted the app to work in the background when using their mobile phone, and the font used should be more youth friendly. Second, in terms of ease of use, participants remarked that the app's self-explanatory nature and instructions that guided them on how to use the app enhanced its use. Third, in terms of a user's privacy, many participants reinforced the importance of privacy settings and tools that protect confidentiality among users. Finally, in terms of linkage to care, participants noted that the app's linkage to care features were useful, particularly in relation to referrals to trained counselors upon the completion of the test. All the participants noted that the app provided a convenient and private means of verifying the HIV test results. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated the importance of engaging end users in the development phase of health technology innovations that serve youth. Clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy of using an mHealth app to verify HIVST results among young people

A designathon to co-create community-driven HIV self-testing services for Nigerian youth: findings from a participatory event.

BACKGROUND: Youth are at high risk for HIV, but are often left out of designing interventions, including those focused on adolescents. We organized a designathon for Nigerian youth to develop HIV self-testing (HIVST) strategies for potential implementation in their local communities. A designathon is a problem-focused event where participants work together over a short period to create and present solutions to a judging panel. METHODS: We organized a 72-h designathon for youth (14-24 years old) in Nigeria to design strategies to increase youth HIVST uptake. Proposals included details about HIVST kit service delivery, method of distribution, promotional strategy, and youth audience. Teams pitched their proposals to a diverse seven-member judging panel who scored proposals based on desirability, feasibility, potential impact and teamwork. We examined participants' socio-demographic characteristics and summarized themes from their HIVST proposals. RESULTS: Forty-two youth on 13 teams participated in the designathon. The median team size was 3 participants (IQR: 2-4). The median age was 22.5 years (IQR: 21-24), 66.7% were male, 47.4% completed tertiary education, and 50% lived in Lagos State. Themes from proposals included HIVST integration with other health services, digital marketing and distribution approaches, and engaging students. Judges identified seven teams with exceptional HIVST proposals and five teams were supported for further training. CONCLUSIONS: The designathon provided a structured method for incorporating youth ideas into HIV service delivery. This approach could differentiate HIV services to be more youth-friendly in Nigeria and other settings

A Randomized Trial of Prophylactic Antibiotics for Miscarriage Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Surgical intervention is needed in some cases of spontaneous abortion to remove retained products of conception. Antibiotic prophylaxis may reduce the risk of pelvic infection, which is an important complication of this surgery, particularly in low-resource countries. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial investigating whether antibiotic prophylaxis before surgery to complete a spontaneous abortion would reduce pelvic infection among women and adolescents in low-resource countries. We randomly assigned patients to a single preoperative dose of 400 mg of oral doxycycline and 400 mg of oral metronidazole or identical placebos. The primary outcome was pelvic infection within 14 days after surgery. Pelvic infection was defined by the presence of two or more of four clinical features (purulent vaginal discharge, pyrexia, uterine tenderness, and leukocytosis) or by the presence of one of these features and the clinically identified need to administer antibiotics. The definition of pelvic infection was changed before the unblinding of the data; the original strict definition was two or more of the clinical features, without reference to the administration of antibiotics. RESULTS: We enrolled 3412 patients in Malawi, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Uganda. A total of 1705 patients were assigned to receive antibiotics and 1707 to receive placebo. The risk of pelvic infection was 4.1% (68 of 1676 pregnancies) in the antibiotics group and 5.3% (90 of 1684 pregnancies) in the placebo group (risk ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.04; P = 0.09). Pelvic infection according to original strict criteria was diagnosed in 1.5% (26 of 1700 pregnancies) and 2.6% (44 of 1704 pregnancies), respectively (risk ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.96). There were no significant between-group differences in adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prophylaxis before miscarriage surgery did not result in a significantly lower risk of pelvic infection, as defined by pragmatic broad criteria, than placebo. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others; AIMS Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN97143849.)

Global and Zonal-Mean Hydrological Response to Early Eocene Warmth

Earth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data-modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal-mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid- (30°–60°N/S) and high-latitudes (>60°N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation-evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter-model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy-derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture divergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation-induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns

Safety, immunogenicity, and reactogenicity of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines given as fourth-dose boosters following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 and a third dose of BNT162b2 (COV-BOOST): a multicentre, blinded, phase 2, randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Some high-income countries have deployed fourth doses of COVID-19 vaccines, but the clinical need, effectiveness, timing, and dose of a fourth dose remain uncertain. We aimed to investigate the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of fourth-dose boosters against COVID-19. METHODS: The COV-BOOST trial is a multicentre, blinded, phase 2, randomised controlled trial of seven COVID-19 vaccines given as third-dose boosters at 18 sites in the UK. This sub-study enrolled participants who had received BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) as their third dose in COV-BOOST and randomly assigned them (1:1) to receive a fourth dose of either BNT162b2 (30 μg in 0·30 mL; full dose) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna; 50 μg in 0·25 mL; half dose) via intramuscular injection into the upper arm. The computer-generated randomisation list was created by the study statisticians with random block sizes of two or four. Participants and all study staff not delivering the vaccines were masked to treatment allocation. The coprimary outcomes were safety and reactogenicity, and immunogenicity (anti-spike protein IgG titres by ELISA and cellular immune response by ELISpot). We compared immunogenicity at 28 days after the third dose versus 14 days after the fourth dose and at day 0 versus day 14 relative to the fourth dose. Safety and reactogenicity were assessed in the per-protocol population, which comprised all participants who received a fourth-dose booster regardless of their SARS-CoV-2 serostatus. Immunogenicity was primarily analysed in a modified intention-to-treat population comprising seronegative participants who had received a fourth-dose booster and had available endpoint data. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, 73765130, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between Jan 11 and Jan 25, 2022, 166 participants were screened, randomly assigned, and received either full-dose BNT162b2 (n=83) or half-dose mRNA-1273 (n=83) as a fourth dose. The median age of these participants was 70·1 years (IQR 51·6-77·5) and 86 (52%) of 166 participants were female and 80 (48%) were male. The median interval between the third and fourth doses was 208·5 days (IQR 203·3-214·8). Pain was the most common local solicited adverse event and fatigue was the most common systemic solicited adverse event after BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 booster doses. None of three serious adverse events reported after a fourth dose with BNT162b2 were related to the study vaccine. In the BNT162b2 group, geometric mean anti-spike protein IgG concentration at day 28 after the third dose was 23 325 ELISA laboratory units (ELU)/mL (95% CI 20 030-27 162), which increased to 37 460 ELU/mL (31 996-43 857) at day 14 after the fourth dose, representing a significant fold change (geometric mean 1·59, 95% CI 1·41-1·78). There was a significant increase in geometric mean anti-spike protein IgG concentration from 28 days after the third dose (25 317 ELU/mL, 95% CI 20 996-30 528) to 14 days after a fourth dose of mRNA-1273 (54 936 ELU/mL, 46 826-64 452), with a geometric mean fold change of 2·19 (1·90-2·52). The fold changes in anti-spike protein IgG titres from before (day 0) to after (day 14) the fourth dose were 12·19 (95% CI 10·37-14·32) and 15·90 (12·92-19·58) in the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 groups, respectively. T-cell responses were also boosted after the fourth dose (eg, the fold changes for the wild-type variant from before to after the fourth dose were 7·32 [95% CI 3·24-16·54] in the BNT162b2 group and 6·22 [3·90-9·92] in the mRNA-1273 group). INTERPRETATION: Fourth-dose COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccines are well tolerated and boost cellular and humoral immunity. Peak responses after the fourth dose were similar to, and possibly better than, peak responses after the third dose. FUNDING: UK Vaccine Task Force and National Institute for Health Research

Persistence of immunogenicity after seven COVID-19 vaccines given as third dose boosters following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BNT162b2 in the UK: three month analyses of the COV-BOOST trial

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the persistence of immunogenicity three months after third dose boosters. METHODS: COV-BOOST is a multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial of seven COVID-19 vaccines used as a third booster dose. The analysis was conducted using all randomised participants who were SARS-CoV-2 naïve during the study. RESULTS: Among the 2883 participants randomised, there were 2422 SARS-CoV-2 naïve participants until D84 visit included in the analysis with median age of 70 (IQR: 30-94) years. In the participants who had two initial doses of ChAd, schedules using mRNA vaccines as third dose have the highest anti-spike IgG at D84 (e.g. geometric mean concentration of 8674 ELU/ml (95% CI: 7461-10085) following ChAd/ChAd/BNT). However, in people who had two initial doses of BNT there was no significant difference at D84 in people given ChAd versus BNT (geometric mean ratio (GMR) of 0.95 (95%CI: 0.78, 1.15). Also, people given Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen; hereafter referred to as Ad26) as a third dose had significantly higher anti-spike IgG at D84 than BNT (GMR of 1.20, 95%CI: 1.01,1.43). Responses at D84 between people who received BNT (15 μg) or BNT (30 μg) after ChAd/ChAd or BNT/BNT were similar, with anti-spike IgG GMRs of half-BNT (15 μg) versus BNT (30 μg) ranging between 0.74-0.86. The decay rate of cellular responses were similar between all the vaccine schedules and doses. CONCLUSIONS: 84 days after a third dose of COVID-19 vaccine the decay rates of humoral response were different between vaccines. Adenoviral vector vaccine anti-spike IgG concentration at D84 following BNT/BNT initial doses were higher than for a three dose (BNT/BNT/BNT) schedule. Half dose BNT immune responses were similar to full dose responses. While high antibody tires are desirable in situations of high transmission of new variants of concern, the maintenance of immune responses that confer long-lasting protection against severe disease or death is also of critical importance. Policymakers may also consider adenoviral vector, fractional dose of mRNA, or other non-mRNA vaccines as third doses

Imaging Long-Term Fate of Intramyocardially Implanted Mesenchymal Stem Cells in a Porcine Myocardial Infarction Model

The long-term fate of stem cells after intramyocardial delivery is unknown. We used noninvasive, repetitive PET/CT imaging with [18F]FEAU to monitor the long-term (up to 5 months) spatial-temporal dynamics of MSCs retrovirally transduced with the sr39HSV1-tk gene (sr39HSV1-tk-MSC) and implanted intramyocardially in pigs with induced acute myocardial infarction. Repetitive [18F]FEAU PET/CT revealed a biphasic pattern of sr39HSV1-tk-MSC dynamics; cell proliferation peaked at 33–35 days after injection, in periinfarct regions and the major cardiac lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes. The sr39HSV1-tk-MSC–associated [18F]FEAU signals gradually decreased thereafter. Cardiac lymphography studies using PG-Gd-NIRF813 contrast for MRI and near-infrared fluorescence imaging showed rapid clearance of the contrast from the site of intramyocardial injection through the subepicardial lymphatic network into the lymphatic vessels and periaortic lymph nodes. Immunohistochemical analysis of cardiac tissue obtained at 35 and 150 days demonstrated several types of sr39HSV1-tk expressing cells, including fibro-myoblasts, lymphovascular cells, and microvascular and arterial endothelium. In summary, this study demonstrated the feasibility and sensitivity of [18F]FEAU PET/CT imaging for long-term, in-vivo monitoring (up to 5 months) of the fate of intramyocardially injected sr39HSV1-tk-MSC cells. Intramyocardially transplanted MSCs appear to integrate into the lymphatic endothelium and may help improve myocardial lymphatic system function after MI