The geographic distribution of onchocerciasis in the 20 participating countries of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control:(2) pre-control endemicity levels and estimated number infected

BACKGROUND: The original aim of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. In order to identify all high risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed to achieve control, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO involved spatial sampling of villages to be surveyed, and examination of 30 to 50 adults per village for palpable onchocercal nodules. REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. A companion article reports the delineation of high risk areas based on expert analysis. The present article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected. METHODS: A model-based geostatistical analysis of the REMO data was undertaken to generate high-resolution maps of the predicted prevalence of nodules and of the probability that the true nodule prevalence exceeds the high risk threshold of 20%. The number infected was estimated by converting nodule prevalence to microfilaria prevalence, and multiplying the predicted prevalence for each location with local data on population density. The geostatistical analysis included the nodule palpation data for 14,473 surveyed villages. RESULTS: The generated map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels, as reflected in the prevalence of nodules, is a significant advance with many new endemic areas identified. The prevalence of nodules was > 20% over an area of 2.5 million km2 with an estimated population of 62 million people. The results were consistent with the delineation of high risk areas of the expert analysis except for borderline areas where the prevalence fluctuated around 20%. It is estimated that 36 million people would have been infected in the APOC countries by 2011 if there had been no ivermectin treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels has proven very valuable for onchocerciasis control in the APOC countries. Following the recent shift to onchocerciasis elimination, the map continues to play an important role in planning treatment, evaluating impact and predicting treatment end dates in relation to local endemicity levels

Progress towards onchocerciasis elimination in the participating countries of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control: Epidemiological evaluation results

Background: The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was created in 1995 to establish community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTi) in order to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries that had 80 % of the global disease burden. When research showed that CDTi may ultimately eliminate onchocerciasis infection, APOC was given in 2008 the additional objective to determine when and where treatment can be safely stopped. We report the results of epidemiological evaluations undertaken from 2008 to 2014 to assess progress towards elimination in CDTi areas with ≥6 years treatment. Methods: Skin snip surveys were undertaken in samples of first-line villages to determine the prevalence of O. volvulus microfilariae. There were two evaluation phases. The decline in prevalence was evaluated in phase 1A. Observed and model-predicted prevalences were compared after correcting for endemicity level and treatment coverage. Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo simulation were used to classify the decline in prevalence as faster than predicted, on track or delayed. Where the prevalence approached elimination levels, phase 1B was launched to determine if treatment could be safely stopped. Village sampling was extended to the whole CDTi area. Survey data were analysed within a Bayesian framework to determine if stopping criteria (overall prevalence <1.4 % and maximum stratum prevalence <5 %) were met. Results: In phase 1A 127 665 people from 639 villages in 54 areas were examined. The prevalence had fallen dramatically. The decline in prevalence was faster than predicted in 23 areas, on track in another 23 and delayed in eight areas. In phase 1B 108 636 people in 392 villages were examined in 22 areas of which 13 met the epidemiological criteria for stopping treatment. Overall, 32 areas (25.4 million people) had reached or were close to elimination, 18 areas (17.4 million) were on track but required more years treatment, and in eight areas (10.4 million) progress was unsatisfactory. Conclusions: Onchocerciasis has been largely controlled as a public health problem. Great progress has been made towards elimination which already appears to have been achieved for millions of people. For most APOC countries, nationwide onchocerciasis elimination is within reach

Projected Number of People With Onchocerciasis-Loiasis Coinfection in Africa, 1995 to 2025

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) is hampered by coendemicity of Loa loa, as people with high L. loa microfilariae (mf) density can develop serious adverse events (SAEs) after ivermectin treatment. We assessed the geographical overlap of onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence and estimated the number of coinfected individuals at risk of post-ivermectin SAEs in West and Central Africa from 1995 to 2025. METHODS: Focusing on regions with suspected loiasis transmission in 14 countries, we overlaid precontrol maps of loiasis and onchocerciasis prevalence to calculate precontrol prevalence of coinfection by 5 km2 × 5 km2 pixel, distinguishing different categories of L. loa mf intensity. Using statistical and mathematical models, we predicted prevalence of both infections and coinfection for 2015 and 2025, accounting for the impact of MDA with ivermectin. RESULTS: The number of people infected with onchocerciasis was predicted to decline from almost 19 million in 1995 to 4 million in 2025. Of these, 137 000 people were estimated to also have L. loa hypermicrofilaremia (≥20 000 L. loa mf/mL) in 1995, declining to 31 000 in 2025. In 2025, 92.8% of coinfecte

How can onchocerciasis elimination in Africa be accelerated? Modelling the impact of increased ivermectin treatment frequency and complementary vector control

Background: Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated. Methods: We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination. Results: Areas with 40%–50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%–80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control. Conclusions: Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful

Impact of long-term treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin in Kaduna State, Nigeria: first evidence of the potential for elimination in the operational area of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis can be effectively controlled as a public health problem by annual mass drug administration of ivermectin, but it was not known if ivermectin treatment in the long term would be able to achieve elimination of onchocerciasis infection and interruption of transmission in endemic areas in Africa. A recent study in Mali and Senegal has provided the first evidence of elimination after 15-17 years of treatment. Following this finding, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has started a systematic evaluation of the long-term impact of ivermectin treatment projects and the feasibility of elimination in APOC supported countries. This paper reports the first results for two onchocerciasis foci in Kaduna, Nigeria. METHODS: In 2008, an epidemiological evaluation using skin snip parasitological diagnostic method was carried out in two onchocerciasis foci, in Birnin Gwari Local Government Area (LGA), and in the Kauru and Lere LGAs of Kaduna State, Nigeria. The survey was undertaken in 26 villages and examined 3,703 people above the age of one year. The result was compared with the baseline survey undertaken in 1987. RESULTS: The communities had received 15 to 17 years of ivermectin treatment with more than 75% reported coverage. For each surveyed community, comparable baseline data were available. Before treatment, the community prevalence of O. volvulus microfilaria in the skin ranged from 23.1% to 84.9%, with a median prevalence of 52.0%. After 15 to 17 years of treatment, the prevalence had fallen to 0% in all communities and all 3,703 examined individuals were skin snip negative. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the surveys confirm the finding in Senegal and Mali that ivermectin treatment alone can eliminate onchocerciasis infection and probably disease transmission in endemic foci in Africa. It is the first of such evidence for the APOC operational area

The geographic distribution of loa loa in Africa:results of large-scale implementation of the Rapid Assessment Procedure for Loiasis (RAPLOA)

Background: Loiasis is a major obstacle to ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis control and lymphatic filariasis elimination in central Africa. In communities with a high level of loiasis endemicity, there is a significant risk of severe adverse reactions to ivermectin treatment. Information on the geographic distribution of loiasis in Africa is urgently needed but available information is limited. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) undertook large scale mapping of loiasis in 11 potentially endemic countries using a rapid assessment procedure for loiasis (RAPLOA) that uses a simple questionnaire on the history of eye worm. Methodology/Principal Findings: RAPLOA surveys were done in a spatial sample of 4798 villages covering an area of 250063000 km centred on the heartland of loiasis in Africa. The surveys showed high risk levels of loiasis in 10 countries where an estimated 14.4 million people live in high risk areas. There was a strong spatial correlation among RAPLOA data, and kriging was used to produce spatially smoothed contour maps of the interpolated prevalence of eye worm and the predictive probability that the prevalence exceeds 40%. Conclusion/Significance: The contour map of eye worm prevalence provides the first global map of loiasis based on actual survey data. It shows a clear distribution with two zones of hyper endemicity, large areas that are free of loiasis and several borderline or intermediate zones. The surveys detected several previously unknown hyperendemic foci, clarified the distribution of loiasis in the Central African Republic and large parts of the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo for which hardly any information was available, and confirmed known loiasis foci. The new maps of the prevalence of eye worm and the probability that the prevalence exceeds the risk threshold of 40% provide critical information for ivermectin treatment programs among millions of people in Africa

Semi-variance of the prevalence of history of eye worm in relation to distance between survey villages.

<p>Semi-variance of the prevalence of history of eye worm in relation to distance between survey villages.</p

Map of the predictive probability that the local prevalence of eye worm history exceeds 40%.

<p>Map of the predictive probability that the local prevalence of eye worm history exceeds 40%.</p