Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem

We present three experiments using a novel problem in which participants update their estimates of propensities when faced with an uncertain new instance. We examine this using two different causal structures (common cause/common effect) and two different scenarios (agent-based/mechanical). In the first, participants must update their estimate of the propensity for two warring nations to successfully explode missiles after being told of a new explosion on the border between both nations. In the second, participants must update their estimate of the accuracy of two early warning tests for cancer when they produce conflicting reports about a patient. Across both experiments, we find two modal responses, representing around one-third of participants each. In the first, "Categorical" response, participants update propensity estimates as if they were certain about the single event, for example, certain that one of the nations was responsible for the latest explosion, or certain about which of the two tests is correct. In the second, "No change" response, participants make no update to their propensity estimates at all. Across the three experiments, the theory is developed and tested that these two responses in fact have a single representation of the problem: because the actual outcome is binary (only one of the nations could have launched the missile; the patient either has cancer or not), these participants believe it is incorrect to update propensities in a graded manner. They therefore operate on a "certainty threshold" basis, whereby, if they are certain enough about the single event, they will make the "Categorical" response, and if they are below this threshold, they will make the "No change" response. Ramifications are considered for the "categorical" response in particular, as this approach produces a positive-feedback dynamic similar to that seen in the belief polarization/confirmation bias literature

The relationship between area poverty rate and site-specific cancer incidence in the United States

BACKGROUND The relationship between socioeconomic status and cancer incidence in the United States has not traditionally been a focus of population-based cancer surveillance systems. METHODS Nearly 3 million tumors diagnosed between 2005 and 2009 from 16 states plus Los Angeles were assigned into 1 of 4 groupings based on the poverty rate of the residential census tract at time of diagnosis. The sex-specific risk ratio of the highest-to-lowest poverty category was measured using Poisson regression, adjusting for age and race, for 39 cancer sites. RESULTS For all sites combined, there was a negligible association between cancer incidence and poverty; however, 32 of 39 cancer sites showed a significant association with poverty (14 positively associated and 18 negatively associated). Nineteen of these sites had monotonic increases or decreases in risk across all 4 poverty categories. The sites most strongly associated with higher poverty were Kaposi sarcoma, larynx, cervix, penis, and liver; those most strongly associated with lower poverty were melanoma, thyroid, other nonepithelial skin, and testis. Sites associated with higher poverty had lower incidence and higher mortality than those associated with lower poverty. CONCLUSIONS These findings demonstrate the importance and relevance of including a measure of socioeconomic status in national cancer surveillanc

Determinants of a healthy lifestyle and use of preventive screening in Canada

BACKGROUND: This study explores the associations between individual characteristics such as income and education with health behaviours and utilization of preventive screening. METHODS: Data from the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS) 1998–9 were used. Independent variables were income, education, age, sex, marital status, body mass index, urban/rural residence and access to a regular physician. Dependent variables included smoking, excessive alcohol use, physical activity, blood pressure checks, mammography in past year and Pap smear in past 3 years. Logistic regression models were developed for each dependent variable. RESULTS: 13,756 persons 20 years of age and older completed the health portion of the NPHS. In general, higher levels of income were associated with healthier behaviours, as were higher levels of education, although there were exceptions to both. The results for age and gender also varied depending on the outcome. The presence of a regular medical doctor was associated with increased rates of all preventive screening and reduced rates of smoking. CONCLUSION: These results expand upon previous data suggesting that socioeconomic disparities in healthy behaviours and health promotion continue to exist despite equal access to medical screening within the Canadian healthcare context. Knowledge, resources and the presence of a regular medical doctor are important factors associated with identified differences

The course of mental health after miscarriage and induced abortion: a longitudinal, five-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Miscarriage and induced abortion are life events that can potentially cause mental distress. The objective of this study was to determine whether there are differences in the patterns of normalization of mental health scores after these two pregnancy termination events. METHODS: Forty women who experienced miscarriages and 80 women who underwent abortions at the main hospital of Buskerud County in Norway were interviewed. All subjects completed the following questionnaires 10 days (T1), six months (T2), two years (T3) and five years (T4) after the pregnancy termination: Impact of Event Scale (IES), Quality of Life, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and another addressing their feelings about the pregnancy termination. Differential changes in mean scores were determined by analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and inter-group differences were assessed by ordinary least squares methods. RESULTS: Women who had experienced a miscarriage had more mental distress at 10 days and six months after the pregnancy termination than women who had undergone an abortion. However, women who had had a miscarriage exhibited significantly quicker improvement on IES scores for avoidance, grief, loss, guilt and anger throughout the observation period. Women who experienced induced abortion had significantly greater IES scores for avoidance and for the feelings of guilt, shame and relief than the miscarriage group at two and five years after the pregnancy termination (IES avoidance means: 3.2 vs 9.3 at T3, respectively, p < 0.001; 1.5 vs 8.3 at T4, respectively, p < 0.001). Compared with the general population, women who had undergone induced abortion had significantly higher HADS anxiety scores at all four interviews (p < 0.01 to p < 0.001), while women who had had a miscarriage had significantly higher anxiety scores only at T1 (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The course of psychological responses to miscarriage and abortion differed during the five-year period after the event. Women who had undergone an abortion exhibited higher scores during the follow-up period for some outcomes. The difference in the courses of responses may partly result from the different characteristics of the two pregnancy termination events

Is telomere length socially patterned? Evidence from the West of Scotland Twenty-07 study

Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is strongly associated with an increased risk of morbidity and premature mortality, but it is not known if the same is true for telomere length, a marker often used to assess biological ageing. The West of Scotland Twenty-07 Study was used to investigate this and consists of three cohorts aged approximately 35 (N = 775), 55 (N = 866) and 75 years (N = 544) at the time of telomere length measurement. Four sets of measurements of SES were investigated: those collected contemporaneously with telomere length assessment, educational markers, SES in childhood and SES over the preceding twenty years. We found mixed evidence for an association between SES and telomere length. In 35-year-olds, many of the education and childhood SES measures were associated with telomere length, i.e. those in poorer circumstances had shorter telomeres, as was intergenerational social mobility, but not accumulated disadvantage. A crude estimate showed that, at the same chronological age, social renters, for example, were nine years (biologically) older than home owners. No consistent associations were apparent in those aged 55 or 75. There is evidence of an association between SES and telomere length, but only in younger adults and most strongly using education and childhood SES measures. These results may reflect that childhood is a sensitive period for telomere attrition. The cohort differences are possibly the result of survival bias suppressing the SES-telomere association; cohort effects with regard different experiences of SES; or telomere possibly being a less effective marker of biological ageing at older ages

When does poor subjective financial position hurt the elderly? Testing the interaction with educational attainment using a national representative longitudinal survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several studies have demonstrated that perceived financial status has a significant impact on health status among the elderly. However, little is known about whether such a subjective perception interacts with objective socioeconomic status (SES) measures such as education that affect the individual's health.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This research used data from the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Middle Age and Elderly in Taiwan (SHLS) conducted by the Bureau of Health Promotion, Department of Health in Taiwan. Waves 1996, 1999 and 2003 were used. The sample consisted of 2,387 elderly persons. The interactive effects of self-rated satisfaction with financial position and educational attainment were estimated. Self-rated health (SRH), depressive symptom (measured by CES-D) and mortality were used to measure health outcomes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant interaction effect was found for depressive symptoms. Among those who were dissatisfied with their financial position, those who were illiterate had an odds ratio (OR) of 8.3 (95% CI 4.9 to 14.0) for having depressive symptoms compared with those who were very satisfied with their financial position. The corresponding OR for those with college or above was only 2.7 (95% CI 1.0 to 7.3). No significant interaction effect was found for SRH and mortality.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although poor financial satisfaction was found to be related to poorer health, the strongest association for this effect was observed among those with low educational attainment, and this is especially true for depressive symptoms. Subjective financial status among the elderly should be explored in conjunction with traditional measures of SES.</p

Educational difference in the prevalence of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women: a study in northern Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Osteoporosis is the most common metabolic bone disease in the world and it is rapidly increasing in Iran. In this study the relationship between educational levels and osteoporosis was investigated among Iranian postmenopausal women.</p> <p>Method and subjects</p> <p>Seven hundred and six women aged 50-75 years old were randomly recruited from urban (<it>n </it>= 440) and rural (<it>n </it>= 266) areas in Guilan. Osteoporosis was diagnosed by quantitative ultrasound technique and dual X-ray absorptiometry. Serum 25(OH) D3, body weight and height were measured in all subjects. Other data including age, educational level, menopause age, medications and history of illness were also collected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that the prevalence of osteoporosis was significantly greater among women with low educational level than women with high educational status (18.0% vs 3.8% <it>P </it>< 0.0001). However, women with low educational level had higher mean serum level of vitamin D than women with high educational level. Osteoporosis was significantly more prevalent among women living in rural areas than women living in urban areas (19.1% v.s 13.3%, <it>P </it>< 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed that educational level is associated with bone health in this population of postmenopausal women with significantly higher osteoporosis found in lower social groups. Therefore, we suggest that women with low social level should be carefully evaluated for signs of osteoporosis during routine physical examinations.</p

Cancer symptom awareness and barriers to symptomatic presentation in England – Are we clear on cancer?

Background: Low cancer awareness may contribute to delayed diagnosis and poor cancer survival. We aimed to quantify socio-demographic differences in cancer symptom awareness and barriers to symptomatic presentation in the English population. Methods: Using a uniquely large data set (n=49?270), we examined the association of cancer symptom awareness and barriers to presentation with age, gender, marital status and socio-economic position (SEP), using logistic regression models to control for confounders. Results: The youngest and oldest, the single and participants with the lowest SEP recognised the fewest cancer symptoms, and reported most barriers to presentation. Recognition of nine common cancer symptoms was significantly lower, and embarrassment, fear and difficulties in arranging transport to the doctor’s surgery were significantly more common in participants living in the most deprived areas than in the most affluent areas. Women were significantly more likely than men to both recognise common cancer symptoms and to report barriers. Women were much more likely compared with men to report that fear would put them off from going to the doctor. Conclusions: Large and robust socio-demographic differences in recognition of some cancer symptoms, and perception of some barriers to presentation, highlight the need for targeted campaigns to encourage early presentation and improve cancer outcomes

A mediation approach to understanding socio-economic inequalities in maternal health-seeking behaviours in Egypt.

BACKGROUND: The levels and origins of socio-economic inequalities in health-seeking behaviours in Egypt are poorly understood. This paper assesses the levels of health-seeking behaviours related to maternal care (antenatal care [ANC] and facility delivery) and their accumulation during pregnancy and childbirth. Secondly, it explores the mechanisms underlying the association between socio-economic position (SEP) and maternal health-seeking behaviours. Thirdly, it examines the effectiveness of targeting of free public ANC and delivery care. METHODS: Data from the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey were used to capture two latent constructs of SEP: individual socio-cultural capital and household-level economic capital. These variables were entered into an adjusted mediation model, predicting twelve dimensions of maternal health-seeking; including any ANC, private ANC, first ANC visit in first trimester, regular ANC (four or more visits during pregnancy), facility delivery, and private delivery. ANC and delivery care costs were examined separately by provider type (public or private). RESULTS: While 74.2% of women with a birth in the 5-year recall period obtained any ANC and 72.4% delivered in a facility, only 48.8% obtained the complete maternal care package (timely and regular facility-based ANC as well as facility delivery) for their most recent live birth. Both socio-cultural capital and economic capital were independently positively associated with receiving any ANC and delivering in a facility. The strongest direct effect of socio-cultural capital was seen in models predicting private provider use of both ANC and delivery. Despite substantial proportions of women using public providers reporting receipt of free care (ANC: 38%, delivery: 24%), this free-of-charge public care was not effectively targeted to women with lowest economic resources. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-cultural capital is the primary mechanism leading to inequalities in maternal health-seeking in Egypt. Future studies should therefore examine the objective and perceived quality of care from different types of providers. Improvements in the targeting of free public care could help reduce the existing SEP-based inequalities in maternal care coverage in the short term