Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998

In this article, we have sought to establish whether monetary aggregates have useful information for forecasting inflation, other than that provided by inflation itself. We have approached the problem in two ways. First, we conducted forecasting experiments, using Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPEs). We then evaluated whether each monetary variable improved the forecasts of a simple AR (1) model of inflation. From the study, we found that the MAPEs for all the variables were less than that of the benchmark AR (1) model. The forecasting experiments showed that, over the whole sample period, most of the variables examined served as important information variables for price movements. We found that the Treasury bill rate, domestic debt and M2 provide the most important information about price movements. Treasury bill rate provided the best information, since it has the lowest MAPE. Conversely, the least important variables were the deposit rate, dollar exchange rate and M1. M2 provides more information about inflation than M1 in the sample period. We also estimated an inflation equation and determined alternately whether M2 enter the equation significantly. We found that M2 is not significant. Exchange rate at level, and contemporaneous value of the domestic debt, are significant in the model. The results obtained are robust across the two methods used and we concluded that although the monetary variables contained some information about inflation, exchange rate and domestic debt may be more useful in predicting inflation in Nigeria. A number of policy implications emerge from the study.Forecasting inflation, Error Correction Model, Mean Absolute Percentage Errors

Evaluation of physico-chemical properties of re-refined lubricating oils obtained from fabricated packed bed reactor

This study aimed at fabricating a packed bed reactor (PBR) and evaluating its performance on improving physico-chemical properties of used lubricating oils. The sorbent used was a composite of bentonite, limestone, diatomite, quartz, and wood charcoal in the same ratio by mass. Samples of used lubricating oils from two brands (Mobil Super SAE 20W-50 and Total Quartz 5000 SAE 20W-50) were run through the fabricated PBR. The mean values of the analyzed physico-chemical parameters (kinematic viscosity, viscosity index, flash point, pour point, acid number, base number, iodine value, ash content, density, and refractive index) of the exuded (treated) oils were compared with those of used and virgin oils of the same brand. Apart from the iodine value, the mean values obtained for the treated oil samples are close to those of virgin oil samples. Thet-test results indicated that most of the parameters showed significant difference between their mean values in the used oils indicating distinct properties and hence, good treatment effects, while a good number showed no significant difference between their mean values in the treated Mobil and treated Total oils, indicating similar properties and that the treatment had similar effects on the two brands of oils. Also, various results of cross plots hadR 2 values greater than 0.96, indicating high linear relationships of the impact of the treatment on the various oil samples. The overall results established the high effectiveness of the fabricated PBR for the treatment of used lubricating oil

Evaluation of Natural Radioactivity and Radiation Hazards of Soils around Petroleum Products Marketing Company using Gamma Ray Spectrometry

This study aimed at evaluating natural radioactivity and radiation hazards of soils around a petroleum product marketing company due to anthropogenic influences using gamma ray spectrometry. Top soils (5 cm deep) were collected from diverse locations inside the premises of the Company using standard analytical technique, while control samples were acquired at approximately 200 m from the study area. Mean activity concentrations of the radionuclides in the test soils were 89.36 Bq/kg for 40K, 92.1 Bq/kg for 238U and 10.95 Bq/kg for 232Th, which are more than that of control samples with statistically significant differences. Assessment of the radiological levels of the oil-contaminated soils were done using internal hazard index, external hazard index, annual gonadal dose equivalent, annual effective dose rate, radium equivalent, total absorbed dose rate and representative level index (IŸ). The results showed that mean annual equivalent dose rate of the oil-contaminated soil (0.46 mSv/yr) fell below the permissive annual dose limit (1.0 mSv/yr). Mean internal hazard index (0.55 Bq/kg) and external hazard index (0.30 Bq/kg) values were less than the minimum permissible limit (1.0). Mean annual gonadal dose equivalent value (358.46 µSvy-1) of the radionuclides was close to the world average of 300 µSvy-1, while the mean representative gamma index value (0.78) was also less than unity. Estimated mean value (114.65 Bq/kg) of the radium equivalent was also below the world average of 370 Bq/kg, the values are also more than that of the control samples. Though the soils exhibited low gamma radiation, however lengthy term exposure may pose an inherent cancerous ill-health. It is vital to repeat this investigation periodically to avert precarious effects of anthropogenic influences; also indiscriminate discarding of oils should be discouraged. Keywords:    Gamma ray spectrometry; radionuclide; refined petroleum products; risk assessment; soil

Estimating novel potential drug targets of Plasmodium falciparum by analysing the metabolic network of knock-out strains in silico

Malaria is one of the world’s most common and serious diseases causing death of about 3 million people each year. Its most severe occurrence is caused by the protozoan Plasmodium falciparum. Biomedical research could enable treating the disease by effectively and specifically targeting essential enzymes of this parasite. However, the parasite has developed resistance to existing drugsmaking it indispensable to discover new drugs. We have established a simple computational tool which analyses the topology of the metabolic network of P. falciparum to identify essential enzymes as possible drug targets.Weinvestigated the essentiality of a reaction in the metabolic network by deleting (knocking-out) such a reaction in silico. The algorithmselected neighbouring compounds of the investigated reaction that had to be produced by alternative biochemical pathways. Using breadth first searches, we tested qualitatively if these products could be generated by reactions that serve as potential deviations of the metabolic flux. With this we identified 70 essential reactions. Our results were compared with a comprehensive list of 38 targets of approved malaria drugs. When combining our approach with an in silico analysis performed recently [Yeh, I., Hanekamp, T., Tsoka, S., Karp, P.D., Altman, R.B., 2004. Computational analysis of Plasmodium falciparum metabolism: organizing genomic information to facilitate drug discovery. Genome Res. 14, 917–924] we could improve the precision of the prediction results. Finally we present a refined list of 22 new potential candidate targets for P. falciparum, half of which have reasonable evidence to be valid targets against micro-organisms and cancer

Solving Dynamic Traveling Salesman Problem Using Dynamic Gaussian Process Regression

This paper solves the dynamic traveling salesman problem (DTSP) using dynamic Gaussian Process Regression (DGPR) method. The problem of varying correlation tour is alleviated by the nonstationary covariance function interleaved with DGPR to generate a predictive distribution for DTSP tour. This approach is conjoined with Nearest Neighbor (NN) method and the iterated local search to track dynamic optima. Experimental results were obtained on DTSP instances. The comparisons were performed with Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing. The proposed approach demonstrates superiority in finding good traveling salesman problem (TSP) tour and less computational time in nonstationary conditions

Removal of metals from flat lubricating oils using a fabricated packed-bed reactor

Packed bed reactor (PBR) was fabricated and its performance in removing metals from used (flat) lubricating oils was evaluated. A blend of locally produced diatomaceous materials was employed as sorbent. Flat lubricating oils from two brands (Mobil Super SAE-20W-50 and Total Quartz 5000 SAE-20W-50) were run through the PBR. Concentrations of the analysed metals in the used and treated oils were measured using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer and the results compared with those of unused (virgin) oils. Zinc, Mg, Ca, Na and K were detected in virgin oils; while all the analysed metals were detected in the treated and used oils but are of higher concentrations in the used oils. Cross plots have R2 values > 0.96, indicating high linear relationships of the impact of the treatment on the used oils. T-test results indicated that most of the metals showed significant differences between the mean values of the treated and used oils, indicating good treatment effects; while most of them indicated no significant differences between the mean values of the brands of oils used, indicating similar treatment effects on the two brands of oils. These results confirmed the high efficacy of the fabricated PBR for the purpose of recycling used oils

Soft Computing Approaches to Stock Forecasting: A Survey

Soft computing techniques has been effectively applied in business, engineering, medical domain to solve problems in the past decade. However, this paper focuses on censoring the application of soft computing techniques for stock market prediction in the last decade (2010 - todate). Over a hundred published articles on stock price prediction were reviewed. The survey is done by grouping these published articles into: the stock market surveyed, input variable choices, summary of modelling technique applied, comparative studies, and summary of performance measures. This survey aptly shows that soft computing techniques are widely used and it has demonstrated widely acceptability to accurately use for predicting stock price and stock index behavior worldwide

Mathematical Research in Digital Age

The time when someone can do real, publishable mathematics completely without the aid of a computer is coming to a close; the use of computers in mathematical research is both widespread and under-acknowledged. Mathematicians use computers in a number of ways. This paper highlights the importance of mathematics and digital age in today2019;s technological advancement; it also explains the influence of digital age on Mathematics research. Key areas where Information and Communication Technology can be applied to Mathematical research are discussed. To demonstrate the use of computer program on Mathematical analysis, some problems were solved analytically and were also solved using computer programs (Mathlab and Python). These two procedures are compared and it is clearly shown that using computer packages to solve Mathematical problems are more efficient, easier and accurate

Woodland Heights Neighborhood Charter Plan Update

On January 1, 2012, the City Council of the City of Des Moines approved the recommendation supporting the selection of Woodland Heights as one of the five neighborhoods to participate in the Charter Neighborhood Program. Neighborhoods selected for the pilot program are required to work with city staff as well as graduate students from Iowa State University’s Department of Community and Regional Planning (ISU Planning Team) to update their respective neighborhood plans. The Woodland Heights Organization (WHO), the neighborhood’s representative neighborhood Whitmer Estate National Historic Register association, began the planning process with a survey of the residents of Woodland Heights. The survey was designed, distributed, and executed by members of WHO. They collected a total of 119 surveys, which were then analyzed by the ISU Planning Team. The survey provided a window into the needs of the neighborhood’s residents. It revealed that neighborhood residents are pleased with the quality of the life that Woodland Heights offers. For example, most respondents cited a high perception of public safety, a strong sense of community and education opportunities as qualities of the neighborhood. The survey data also indicates that the residents deeply care about the aesthetic quality and historic significance of the neighborhood. The results of this survey are fully presented in Appendix A at the end of this document.https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/resilientneighborhoods_plans/1002/thumbnail.jp