Spatiotemporal patterns of successful TB treatment outcomes among HIV co-infected patients in Kenya

Paper presented at the 5th Strathmore International Mathematics Conference (SIMC 2019), 12 - 16 August 2019, Strathmore University, Nairobi, KenyaConvergence of the Tuberculosis (TB) and HIV epidemics threatens the management of TB treatment. These has been evidenced by various studies describing how HIV cc-infection propagates unsuccessful TB treatment outcomes. Information on the spatiotemporal patterns of successful TB treatment outcomes remain less understood despite the multi-organizational TB treatment efforts. This study uses case notification data to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of successful TB treatment outcomes for HIV co-infected patients in Kenya. This study used the case notification data from the Kenya National TB control program to investigate successful TB treatment outcomes in forty-seven counties in the period 2012 - 2017. The population of study was HIV co-infected cases with known TB treatment outcome. Achi-squre test was performed to determine the association between treatment outcomes and risk factors; TB- type, age, gender, ART therapy and patient type. The study also assessed the geographic patterns and temporal trends by mapping the TB treatment success rate in each county for the six-year period. Using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approach (INLA), the TB treatment success of HIV co-infected patients was modeled. The spatial parameters assumed the BesagYork-Mollie (BYM) specification. The temporally structured effect was represented through a neighboring structure and the temporally unstructured effects using a Gaussian exchangeable prior. Among the 172233 HIV co-infected cases included in the analysis, 135973 (78.9%) achieved successful TB treatment outcomes. Female cases registered higher treatment success rates (80.1%) compared to the male cases (77.8%). The cases on Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) recorded a success rate of 79.9% against 69.1% for their counterpart not on ART. The spatial trend depicted increased treatment success in some parts of the country with a relatively high level of associated certainty, characterized by a spatial relative success above 1 and posterior probabilities above 0.8. The temporal trend of treatment success showed an increase in the treatment success of TB in HIV coinfected cases. Overall, the success rate was still below 85% particularly for Homabay, Siaya, Kisumu, Migori and Busia counties in western Kenya. The successful TB treatment outcomes for HIV coinfected cases in Kenya were slightly below the 85% standard threshold set by the World Health Organization. Our study showed that even though co-infected cases have an increased risk of unsuccessful treatment outcomes, enhanced treatment monitoring improved the treatment outcome in most counties for the six-year period.Department of Mathematical Sciences, Pan African University Institute of Basic Sciences Technology and Innovation, Nairobi, Kenya Epidemiology and Biostatistics Division, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. School of Mathematics, Statistics Computer Science, University of Kwa-Zulu Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

Clinical-pathological presentation, treatment and outcomes of ovarian cancer cases at moi teaching and referral hospital (mtrh), eldoret

Introduction: Ovarian cancer is the third most frequent cause of death amongst gynecological cancers both locally and globally. It presents with vague nonspecific symptoms and is histologically heterogeneous. Ovarian cancer management is primarily surgical followed by adjuvant chemotherapy depending on the histological type and the surgical stage. Objectives: To determine the clinical-pathological presentation, treatment and outcomes of ovarian cancer patients at Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH), Eldoret. Methods: This was a retrospective chart review of ovarian cancer patients managed between January 2010 and August 2017 at MTRH. Data were analyzed using STATA version 15. Survival trends were generated using Kaplan Meier method. Results: A total of 124 medical charts of patients with ovarian cancer were retrieved, 29 had incomplete data and were excluded, and 95 were evaluable and included in this review. Over half, (63%) presented in stage 3 and 4 though there was no significant association between histology and stage of disease [X2(6) =4.72, p=0.58]. The median age at diagnosis was 47 years with 55-80 years being the modal age group (36%). Majority (57%) were married and 83.9% were unemployed. Only 66% had documented histopathology, with Epithelial Ovarian Cancer (EOC) being most common (70%), [serous (50%) and mucinous (11.4%)]. Sex cord stromal tumors 11%. Germ cell tumors amounted to 11% (dygerminomas 50%and Yolk sac tumors (25%) Bivariate analysis revealed significant association only between histology and parity [X2 (6) = 28.8, p\u3c0.001]. Those reviewed contributed a total of 138.2 person-years to the study and 11(12%) died, giving a diseasespecific mortality rate of 79.6 per 1,000 person years (95% CI: 44.1-143.8). Mortality was highest among those with epithelial histology 109 (95% CI: 48.8-241.9) per 1,000 person years and those who had neoadjuvant chemotherapy then surgery as a treatment option, 373.1 (95% CI: 93.3-1491.8) per 1,000 person years. Those who underwent upfront surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy and sex cord stromal cancer had higher survival probability. Conclusion: Ovarian cancer at MTRH is diagnosed at advanced stages III and IV of disease and has a lower median age at presentation. EOC is the commonest histological type and serous subtype is the most lethal. Mortality was highest among those with EOC and those who underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Granulosa cell tumor is the only sex cord stromal type reported in our setting and it exhibited a higher survival probability. Germ cell tumors were mainly found in nulliparous women

Where Are the Newly Diagnosed HIV Positives in Kenya? Time to Consider Geo-Spatially Guided Targeting at a Finer Scale to Reach the “First 90”

Background: The UNAIDS 90-90-90 Fast-Track targets provide a framework for assessing coverage of HIV testing services (HTS) and awareness of HIV status – the “first 90.” In Kenya, the bulk of HIV testing targets are aligned to the five highest HIV-burden counties. However, we do not know if most of the new HIV diagnoses are in these five highest-burden counties or elsewhere. Methods: We analyzed facility-level HTS data in Kenya from 1 October 2015 to 30 September 2016 to assess the spatial distribution of newly diagnosed HIV-positives. We used the Moran's Index (Moran's I) to assess global and local spatial auto-correlation of newly diagnosed HIV-positive tests and Kulldorff spatial scan statistics to detect hotspots of newly diagnosed HIV-positive tests. For aggregated data, we used Kruskal-Wallis equality-of-populations non-parametric rank test to compare absolute numbers across classes. Results: Out of 4,021 HTS sites, 3,969 (98.7%) had geocodes available. Most facilities (3,034, 76.4%), were not spatially autocorrelated for the number of newly diagnosed HIV-positives. For the rest, clustering occurred as follows; 438 (11.0%) were HH, 66 (1.7%) HL, 275 (6.9%) LH, and 156 (3.9%) LL. Of the HH sites, 301 (68.7%) were in high HIV-burden counties. Over half of 123 clusters with a significantly high number of newly diagnosed HIV-infected persons, 73(59.3%) were not in the five highest HIV-burden counties. Clusters with a high number of newly diagnosed persons had twice the number of positives per 1,000,000 tests than clusters with lower numbers (29,856 vs. 14,172). Conclusions: Although high HIV-burden counties contain clusters of sites with a high number of newly diagnosed HIV-infected persons, we detected many such clusters in low-burden counties as well. To expand HTS where most needed and reach the “first 90” targets, geospatial analyses and mapping make it easier to identify and describe localized epidemic patterns in a spatially dispersed epidemic like Kenya's, and consequently, reorient and prioritize HTS strategies.publishedVersio

Tobacco use and mass media utilization in sub-Saharan Africa.

Media utilization has been identified as an important determinant of tobacco use. We examined the association between self-reported tobacco use and frequency of mass media utilization by women and men in nine low-to middle-income sub-Saharan African countries.Data for the study came from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Liberia, Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe over the period 2006-2011. Each survey population was a cross-sectional sample of women aged 15-49 years and men aged 15-59 years, with information on tobacco use and media access being obtained by face-to-face interviews. An index of media utilization was constructed based on responses to questions on the frequency of reading newspapers, frequency of watching television and frequency of listening to the radio. Demographic and socioeconomic variables were considered as potentially confounding covariates. Logistic regression models with country and cluster specific random effects were estimated for the pooled data.The risk of cigarette smoking increased with greater utilization to mass media. The use of smokeless tobacco and tobacco use in general declined with greater utilization to mass media. The risk of tobacco use was 5% lower in women with high media utilization compared to those with low media utilization [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.82-1.00]. Men with a high media utilization were 21% less likely to use tobacco compared to those with low media utilization [AOR = 0.79, 95%CI = 0.73-0.85]. In the male sample, tobacco use also declined with the increased frequency of reading newspapers (or magazines), listening to radio and watching television.Mass media campaigns, conducted in the context of comprehensive tobacco control programmes, can reduce the prevalence of tobacco smoking in sub-Saharan Africa. The reach, intensity, duration and type of messages are important aspects of the campaigns but need to also address all forms of tobacco use

Prevalence rates of tobacco use, cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco use by selected covariates.

<p>Prevalence rates of tobacco use, cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco use by selected covariates.</p

Logistic regression analysis results for the Male population.

<p>* p<0.05</p><p>** p<0.01</p><p>*** p<0.0.</p><p>Logistic regression analysis results for the Male population.</p

Principal component factor analysis of media utilization.

<p>Principal component factor analysis of media utilization.</p

Logistic regression analysis results for the Female population.

<p>* p<0.05</p><p>** p<0.01</p><p>*** p<0.001.</p><p>Logistic regression analysis results for the Female population.</p

Bayesian mapping of HIV infection among women of reproductive age in Rwanda.

HIV prevalence is rising and has been consistently higher among women in Rwanda whereas a decreasing national HIV prevalence rate in the adult population has stabilised since 2005. Factors explaining the increased vulnerability of women to HIV infection are not currently well understood. A statistical mapping at smaller geographic units and the identification of key HIV risk factors are crucial for pragmatic and more efficient interventions. The data used in this study were extracted from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey data for 6952 women. A full Bayesian geo-additive logistic regression model was fitted to data in order to assess the effect of key risk factors and map district-level spatial effects on the risk of HIV infection. The results showed that women who had STIs, concurrent sexual partners in the 12 months prior to the survey, a sex debut at earlier age than 19 years, were living in a woman-headed or high-economic status household were significantly associated with a higher risk of HIV infection. There was a protective effect of high HIV knowledge and perception. Women occupied in agriculture, and those residing in rural areas were also associated with lower risk of being infected. This study provides district-level maps of the variation of HIV infection among women of child-bearing age in Rwanda. The maps highlight areas where women are at a higher risk of infection; the aspect that proximate and distal factors alone could not uncover. There are distinctive geographic patterns, although statistically insignificant, of the risk of HIV infection suggesting potential effectiveness of district specific interventions. The results also suggest that changes in sexual behaviour can yield significant results in controlling HIV infection in Rwanda

Spatial and socio-economic correlates of effective contraception among women seeking post-abortion care in healthcare facilities in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION:Information, counseling, availability of contraceptives, and their adoption by post-abortion care (PAC) patients are central to the quality of PAC in healthcare facilities. Effective contraceptive adoption by these patients reduces the risks of unintended pregnancy and repeat abortion. METHODS:This study uses data from the Incidence and Magnitude of Unsafe Abortion Study of 2012 to assess the level and determinants of highly effective contraception among patients treated with complications from an unsafe abortion in healthcare facilities in Kenya. Highly effective contraception was defined as any method adopted by a PAC patient that reduces pregnancy rate by over 99%. RESULTS:Generally, contraceptive counseling was high among all PAC patients (90%). However, only 54% of them received a modern family planning method-45% a short-acting method and 9% a long-acting and permanent method. Adoption of highly effective contraception was determined by patient's previous exposure to unintended pregnancies, induced abortion and modern family planning (FP). Facility level factors associated with the uptake of highly effective contraceptives included: facility ownership, availability of evacuation procedure room, whether the facility had a specialized obstetric-gynecologist, a facility that also had maternity services and the number of FP methods available for PAC patients. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION:For better adoption of highly effective FP, counseling of PAC patients requires an understanding of the patient's past experience with contraception and their future fertility intentions and desires in order to meet their reproductive needs more specifically. Family planning integration with PAC can increase contraceptive uptake and improve the reproductive health of post-abortion care patients