Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout

We demonstrate how mechanistic modeling can be used to predict whether and how biological responses to chemicals at (sub)organismal levels in model species (i.e., what we typically measure) translate into impacts on ecosystem service delivery (i.e., what we care about). We consider a hypothetical case study of two species of trout, brown trout (Salmo trutta; BT) and greenback cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii stomias; GCT). These hypothetical populations live in a high-altitude river system and are exposed to human-derived estrogen (17α‑ethinyl estradiol, EE2), which is the bioactive estrogen in many contraceptives. We use the individual based model in STREAM to explore how seasonally varying concentrations of EE2 could influence male spawning and sperm quality. Resulting impacts on trout recruitment and the consequences of such for anglers and for the continued viability of populations of GCT (the state fish of Colorado) are explored. in STREAM incorporates seasonally varying river flow and temperature, fishing pressure, the influence of EE2 on species-specific demography, and inter-specific competition. The model facilitates quantitative exploration of the relative importance of endocrine disruption and inter-species competition on trout population dynamics. Simulations predicted constant EE2 loading to have more impacts on GCT than BT. However, increasing removal of BT by anglers can enhance the persistence of GCT and offset some of the negative effects of EE2. We demonstrate how models that quantitatively link impacts of chemicals and other stressors on individual survival, growth, and reproduction to consequences for populations and ecosystem service delivery, can be coupled with ecosystem service valuation. The approach facilitates interpretation of toxicity data in an ecological context and gives beneficiaries of ecosystem services amore explicit role in management decisions. Although challenges remain, this type of approach may be particularly helpful for site-specific risk assessments and those in which trade offs and synergies among ecosystem services need to be considered

Intraspecific trade-offs between facilitation and competition in the non-native mollusc Crepidula fornicata

International audienceWe tested the hypothesis that high-density populations of the non-indigenous gastropod Crepidula fornicata increase settlement of conspecific recruits (facilitation process), and that this facilitation is balanced by competition processes. To verify our hypothesis, we sampled C. fornicata at 2 drastically different densities for 10 yr. We found that at high densities, the number of 1 yr old individuals per square meter colonizing the habitat and individual growth performances were higher in comparison with the low-density condition (Allee effect). In contrast, the production/biomass ratio (P/B), a good indicator of population fitness, was lower at higher densities. We relate this lower P/B ratio to the deficit of young individuals compared to adult biomass. We conclude that the net effect of high density on the conspecific colonization processes of the population is positive, thanks to the higher available hard substrate for larvae (facilitation). However, intraspecific competition also occurs and mitigates this positive effect. Therefore, we suggest that it is particularly important to take into account the ‘net’ balance between costs and benefits (i.e. what we observe) when analyzing population growth, in order to better understand its dynamics

Is apparent low productivity of the invasive marine mollusc Crepidula fornicata Linnaeus, 1758 related to biased age determination?

International audienceThe slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata Linnaeus, 1758 is a major exotic invader of East North Atlantic coasts. Individuals live on top of each other and form stacks with the youngest on the top. Earlier studies reported that one individual typically settles per year. If true, it is a simplified means to provide a “shell length-age” relationship for population dynamics studies, especially Production/Biomass ratio (P/B) assessment. However, estimated P/B ranges between 0.15 and 0.45 yr-1 seem low compared to those of closely-related marine invertebrates and considering the invasiveness of C. fornicata in coastal habitats. In this study, we placed artificial substrates (“tiles”) for one year in the middle of a C. fornicata colony and measured settlement. We sometimes observed more than one individual settling per stack in a year: 4% of stacks were composed by 3 individuals, 27% by 2 individuals and 69% were single specimen. On this basis, we formulated a model to better link the position of each C. fornicata within a stack to its age. In addition, the C. fornicata population was annually sampled for 5 years. Then, population dynamics parameters, density at recruitment, mortality rate, growth performance, production and P/B were estimated. We compared two cases: (i) individual age was defined by its position in stacks; (ii) individual age was corrected by the model. Recalculation moderately increased growth performance expectation (+2 to 8% per year) but greatly enhanced production and P/B (ca. 1.2 to 2.6-fold per year). Recalculated P/B values ranged from 0.55 to 0.72 yr-1. While still low, they were more consistent with published values for similar large marine invertebrates, in particular for invasive species

Individual-Based-Model used in "Population context matters: predicting effects of metabolic stress mediated by food availability and predation with an agent- and energy budget-based model"

This is the programming software code of the model developed to investigate the population-level impacts of a hypothetical, sublethal stressor that can affect an individual’s metabolism (growth, reproduction, maintenance, or assimilation) in systems in which population size is controlled by different combinations of food availability and predation pressure. The life cycle of fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) is describe through their metabolism, using the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB) and we represent the populations through an Individual-Based Model (IBM).United States Fisheries and Wildlife Service - Cooperative Agreement Award F17AC0026

Modeling Pesticide Effects on Multiple Threatened and Endangered Cyprinid Fish Species: The Role of Life-History Traits and Ecology

Mechanistic models are invaluable in ecological risk assessment (ERA) because they facilitate extrapolation of organism-level effects to population-level effects while accounting for species life history, ecology, and vulnerability. In this work, we developed a model framework to compare the potential effects of the fungicide chlorothalonil across four listed species of cyprinid fish and explore species-specific traits of importance at the population level. The model is an agent-based model based on the dynamic energy budget theory. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic sub-models were used for representing direct effects, whereas indirect effects were described by decreasing food availability. Exposure profiles were constructed based on hydroxychlorothalonil, given the relatively short half-life of parent chlorothalonil. Different exposure magnification factors were required to achieve a comparable population decrease across species. In particular, those species producing fewer eggs and with shorter lifespans appeared to be more vulnerable. Moreover, sequentially adding effect sub-models resulted in different outcomes depending on the interplay of life-history traits and density-dependent compensation effects. We conclude by stressing the importance of using models in ERA to account for species-specific characteristics and ecology, especially when dealing with listed species and in accordance with the necessity of reducing animal testing