Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Bartonella henselae vertebral osteomyelitis in a pediatric patient: A case report

Abstract Bartonella henselae is an unusual and rarely suspected osteomyelitis etiologic agent. We present a case of low back‐pain in a 10‐year‐old female which lead to a challenging diagnostic work‐up due to subtle imaging findings. The diagnosis was Bartonella henselae vertebral osteomyelitis mimicking bone tumor

Pelvic Pyomyositis in Childhood: Clinical and Radiological Findings in a Tertiary Pediatric Center

Pyomyositis (PM) is an infrequent but increasing bacterial infection of the skeletal muscle, with muscles of the pelvis and thigh frequently involved. The diagnosis is often challenging, especially when a deep muscle is affected. We present a single-center pediatric cohort affected by pelvic PM. A retrospective analysis was performed, including children admitted to Meyer Children’s Hospital between 2010 and 2020. Demographic, anamnestic, clinical, laboratory, radiological and management data were collected. Forty-seven patients (range 8 days–16.5 years, 66% males) were selected. Pain (64%), functional limitations (40%) and fever (38%) were the most common presenting symptoms; 11% developed sepsis. The median time to reach the diagnosis was 5 days (IQR 3–9). Staphylococcus aureus was the most common organism (30%), Methicillin-Resistant S aureus (MRSA) in 14%. PM was associated with osteomyelitis (17%), arthritis (19%) or both (45%). The infection was multifocal in 87% of children and determined abscesses in 44% (40% multiple). Pelvic MRI scan, including diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), always showed abnormalities when performed. Clinical and laboratory findings in pelvic PM are unspecific, especially in infancy. Nevertheless, the infection may be severe, and the suspicion should be higher. MRI is the most useful radiological technique, and DWI sequence could reveal insidious infections

Clinical Syndromes Related to SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Vaccination in Pediatric Age: A Narrative Review

This narrative review aims to report the main clinical manifestations, therapeutic strategies, outcomes, and complications of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection in childhood and to summarize the data relating the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination efficacy and safety in pediatric age. SARS-CoV-2 infection mostly occurs asymptomatically in the pediatric population, while multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) represents the most severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related illness, a life-threatening event with a high morbidity rate. After the development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and their subsequent approval in children, the rate of infection as well as the number of its related complications have shown a drastic decrease. Fully vaccinated children are protected from the risk of developing a severe disease and a similar protective role has been observed in the reduction of complications, in particular MIS-C. However, long-lasting immunity has not been demonstrated, booster doses have been required, and reinfection has been observed. With regards to vaccine safety, adverse events were generally mild to moderate in all age groups: local adverse events were the most commonly reported. Nevertheless, a potential association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and the subsequent development of inflammatory manifestations has been suggested. Myocarditis has rarely been observed following vaccination; it appeared to be more frequent among adolescent males with a mild clinical course leading to a complete recovery. SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-related MIS-C cases have been described, although a univocal definition and an exact time interval with respect to vaccination has not been reported, thus not establishing a direct causal link. Current evidence about COVID-19 vaccination in children and adolescents suggest that benefits outweigh potential risks. Long-term data collection of the post-authorization safety surveillance programs will better define the real incidence of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-related complications in the pediatric population

Cardiac MRI in midterm follow-up of MISC: a multicenter study

In this multicenter retrospective study we aimed to evaluate the outcome of cardiac involvement in children affected by multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C), assessed through cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). Children referring to three Italian tertiary pediatric centers between February 2020 and November 2021 with a diagnosis of MIS-C, who underwent CMR during a follow-up visit, were enrolled. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, treatment, and outcome data were collected. Twenty MIS-C patients (aged 9-17, median 12 years) were included in the study. Heart involvement at onset was testified by hypotension/shock (55%), laboratory evidence of myocardial involvement (100%), reduced LV ejection fraction (EF) on echocardiography (83%), and/or need for inotrope agents (40%); they all presented good clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic response to treatment. CMR was performed after a median interval of 3 months from discharge. Pericardial effusion and myocardial edema were found in 5% of patients. Mild residual left ventricular (LV) dysfunction was found in 20% of patients, all showing normal echocardiographic LVEF at discharge. Minimal myocardial scars were found in 25% by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). One patient was evaluated at two consecutive time points, showing partial resolution of a myocardial scar after 7 months from its first finding. Conclusion: Despite the severity of heart involvement in the acute MIS-C phase, the mid-term cardiac outcome is good. Direct cardiac tissue viral invasion may be involved in MIS-C pathogenesis. What is Known: Heart involvement is common in MIS-C, but conflicting findings have been shown regarding cardiac outcome when assessed through cardiac MRI. What is New: Midterm cardiac MRI shows mild abnormalities in patients recovered from MIS-C with any grade of severity of cardiac involvement at presentation

Prognostic Factors and Long-Term Outcome with ANCA-Associated Kidney Vasculitis in Childhood

Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis is extremely rare in children. We report the clinico-pathological features, long-term outcomes, and prognostic factors of a large paediatric cohort of patients with ANCA-associated kidney vasculitis

Defining Criteria for Disease Activity States in Systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Based on the Systemic Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score

Objective. Our objective was to develop and validate cutoff values in the systemic Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score 10 (sJADAS10) that distinguish the states of inactive disease (ID), minimal disease activity (MDA), moderate disease activity (MoDA), and high disease activity (HDA) in children with systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis, based on subjective disease state assessment by the treating pediatric rheumatologist. Methods. The cutoff definition cohort was composed of 400 patients enrolled at 30 pediatric rheumatology centers in 11 countries. Using the subjective physician rating as an external criterion, six methods were applied to identify the cutoffs: mapping, calculation of percentiles of cumulative score distribution, the Youden index, 90% specificity, maximum agreement, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Sixty percent of the patients were assigned to the definition cohort, and 40% were assigned to the validation cohort. Cutoff validation was conducted by assessing discriminative ability. Results. The sJADAS10 cutoffs that separated ID from MDA, MDA from MoDA, and MoDA from HDA were <= 2.9, <= 10, and >20.6, respectively. The cutoffs discriminated strongly among different levels of pain, between patients with and without morning stiffness, and among patients whose parents judged their disease status as remission or persistent activity or flare or were satisfied or not satisfied with current illness outcome. Conclusion. The sJADAS cutoffs revealed good metrologic properties in both definition and validation cohorts and are therefore suitable for use in clinical trials and routine practice

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990–2021 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020–21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. Methods We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens. Findings Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325–364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120–4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98–2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1–29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000–611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000–320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1–104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000–555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6–49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5–27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000–459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000–194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9–46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3–61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9–35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1–18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8–78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6–75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths. Interpretation Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK)

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere