A Theoretical Framework for the Analysis of the West Nile Virus Epidemic

We present a model for the growth of West Nile virus in mosquito and bird populations based on observations of the initial epidemic in the U.S. Increase of bird mortality as a result of infection, which is a feature of the epidemic, is found to yield an effect which is observable in principle, viz., periodic variations in the extent of infection. The vast difference between mosquito and bird lifespans, another peculiarity of the system, is shown to lead to interesting consequences regarding delay in the onset of the steady-state infection. An outline of a framework is provided to treat mosquito diffusion and bird migration.Comment: 12 pages, 9 postscript figure

Time To Try Mediation Of International Commercial Disputes

How many attorneys in the audience have ever participated in a domestic mediation? I see the hands of about four out of about a hundred people in attendance. How many attorneys in the audience have ever participated in an international mediation? I see two people raising their hands. This is a larger percentage of people than I had anticipated! (laughter

Diffusion and Home Range Parameters from Rodent Population Measurements in Panama

Simple random walk considerations are used to interpret rodent population data collected in Hantavirus-related investigations in Panama regarding the short-tailed cane mouse, \emph{Zygodontomys brevicauda}. The diffusion constant of mice is evaluated to be of the order of (and larger than) 200 meters squared per day. The investigation also shows that the rodent mean square displacement saturates in time, indicating the existence of a spatial scale which could, in principle, be the home range of the rodents. This home range is concluded to be of the order of 70 meters. Theoretical analysis is provided for interpreting animal movement data in terms of an interplay of the home ranges, the diffusion constant, and the size of the grid used to monitor the movement. The study gives impetus to a substantial modification of existing theory of the spread of the Hantavirus epidemic which has been based on simple diffusive motion of the rodents, and additionally emphasizes the importance for developing more accurate techniques for the measurement of rodent movement.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure

Diffusion and Home Range Parameters for Rodents: Peromyscus maniculatus in New Mexico

We analyze data from a long term field project in New Mexico, consisting of repeated sessions of mark-recaptures of Peromyscus maniculatus (Rodentia: Muridae), the host and reservoir of Sin Nombre Virus (Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus). The displacements of the recaptured animals provide a means to study their movement from a statistical point of view. We extract two parameters from the data with the help of a simple model: the diffusion constant of the rodents, and the size of their home range. The short time behavior shows the motion to be approximately diffusive and the diffusion constant to be 470+/-50m^2/day. The long time behavior provides an estimation of the diameter of the rodent home ranges, with an average value of 100+/-25m. As in previous investigations directed at Zygodontomys brevicauda observations in Panama, we use a box model for home range estimation. We also use a harmonic model in the present investigation to study the sensitivity of the conclusions to the model used and find that both models lead to similar estimates.Comment: The published paper in Ecol. Complexity has an old version of Figure 6. Here we have put the correct version of Figure