Asymptotic global robustness in bayesian decision theory

In Bayesian decision theory, it is known that robustness with respect to the loss and the prior can be improved by adding new observations. In this article we study the rate of robustness improvement with respect to the number of observations n. Three usual measures of posterior global robustness are considered: the (range of the) Bayes actions set derived from a class of loss functions, the maximum regret of using a particular loss when the subjective loss belongs to a given class and the range of the posterior expected loss when the loss function ranges over a class. We show that the rate of convergence of the first measure of robustness is \sqrtn, while it is n for the other measures under reasonable assumptions on the class of loss functions. We begin with the study of two particular cases to illustrate our results.Comment: Published by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org) in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00905360400000056

Bayesian functional linear regression with sparse step functions

The functional linear regression model is a common tool to determine the relationship between a scalar outcome and a functional predictor seen as a function of time. This paper focuses on the Bayesian estimation of the support of the coefficient function. To this aim we propose a parsimonious and adaptive decomposition of the coefficient function as a step function, and a model including a prior distribution that we name Bayesian functional Linear regression with Sparse Step functions (Bliss). The aim of the method is to recover areas of time which influences the most the outcome. A Bayes estimator of the support is built with a specific loss function, as well as two Bayes estimators of the coefficient function, a first one which is smooth and a second one which is a step function. The performance of the proposed methodology is analysed on various synthetic datasets and is illustrated on a black P\'erigord truffle dataset to study the influence of rainfall on the production

On the kernel rule for function classification

International audienceLet X be a random variable taking values in a function space F, and let Y be a discrete random label with values 0 and 1. We investigate asymptotic properties of the moving window classification rule based on independent copies of the pair (X, Y ). Contrary to the finite dimensional case, it is shown that the moving window classifier is not universally consistent in the sense that its probability of error may not converge to the Bayes risk for some distributions of (X, Y ). Sufficient conditions both on the space F and the distribution of X are then given to ensure consistency

Early markers of airways inflammation and occupational asthma: Rationale, study design and follow-up rates among bakery, pastry and hairdressing apprentices

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Occupational asthma is a common type of asthma caused by a specific agent in the workplace. The basic alteration of occupational asthma is airways inflammation. Although most patients with occupational asthma are mature adults, there is evidence that airways inflammation starts soon after inception of exposure, including during apprenticeship. Airways hyper responsiveness to methacholine is a valid surrogate marker of airways inflammation, which has proved useful in occupational epidemiology. But it is time-consuming, requires active subject's cooperation and is not readily feasible. Other non-invasive and potentially more useful tests include the forced oscillation technique, measurement of fraction exhaled nitric oxide, and eosinophils count in nasal lavage fluid.</p> <p>Methods and design</p> <p>This study aims to investigate early development of airways inflammation and asthma-like symptoms in apprentice bakers, pastry-makers and hairdressers, three populations at risk of occupational asthma whose work-related exposures involve agents of different nature. The objectives are to (i) examine the performance of the non-invasive tests cited above in detecting early airways inflammation that might eventually develop into occupational asthma; and (ii) evaluate whether, and how, constitutional (e.g. atopy) and behavioural (e.g. smoking) risk factors for occupational asthma modulate the effects of allergenic and/or irritative substances involved in these occupations. This paper presents the study rationale and detailed protocol.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Among 441 volunteers included at the first visit, 354 attended the fourth one. Drop outs were investigated and showed unrelated to the study outcome. Sample size and follow-up participation rates suggest that the data collected in this study will allow it to meet its objectives.</p

Effect of QRS duration and morphology on cardiac resynchronization therapy outcomes in mild heart failure: results from the Resynchronization Reverses Remodeling in Systolic Left Ventricular Dysfunction (REVERSE) study.

International audienceBACKGROUND: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) decreases mortality, improves functional status, and induces reverse left ventricular remodeling in selected populations with heart failure. We aimed to assess the impact of baseline QRS duration and morphology and the change in QRS duration with pacing on CRT outcomes in mild heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Resynchronization Reverses Remodeling in Systolic Left Ventricular Dysfunction (REVERSE) was a multicenter randomized trial of CRT among 610 patients with mild heart failure. Baseline and CRT-paced QRS durations and baseline QRS morphology were evaluated by blinded core laboratories. The mean baseline QRS duration was 151±23 milliseconds, and 60.5% of subjects had left bundle-branch block (LBBB). Patients with LBBB experienced a 25.3-mL/m(2) mean reduction in left ventricular end-systolic volume index (P<0.0001), whereas non-LBBB patients had smaller decreases (6.7 mL/m(2); P=0.18). Baseline QRS duration was also a strong predictor of change in left ventricular end-systolic volume index with monotonic increases as QRS duration prolonged. Similarly, the clinical composite score improved with CRT for LBBB subjects (odds ratio, 0.530; P=0.0034) but not for non-LBBB subjects (odds ratio, 0.724; P=0.21). The association between clinical composite score and QRS duration was highly significant (odds ratio, 0.831 for each 10-millisecond increase in QRS duration; P<0.0001), with improved response at longer QRS durations. The change in QRS duration with CRT pacing was not an independent predictor of any outcomes after correction for baseline variables. CONCLUSION: REVERSE demonstrated that LBBB and QRS prolongation are markers of reverse remodeling and clinical benefit with CRT in mild heart failure. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00271154

Role of Anopheles (Cellia) rufipes (Gough, 1910) and other local anophelines in human malaria transmission in the northern savannah of Cameroon: a crosssectional survey

Background As part of a study to determine the impact of insecticide resistance on the effectiveness of longlasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) in the north of Cameroon, the unexpectedly high density and anthropophilic behaviour of Anopheles rufipes lead us to investigate this species bionomics and role in human malaria parasite transmission. Methods For four consecutive years (2011–2014), annual cross-sectional sampling of adult mosquitoes was conducted during the peak malaria season (September-October) in three health districts in northern Cameroon. Mosquitoes sampled by human landing catch and pyrethrum spray catch methods were morphologically identified, their ovaries dissected for parity determination and Anopheles gambiae siblings were identified by molecular assay. Infection with P. falciparum and blood meal source in residual fauna of indoor resting anopheline mosquitoes were determined by enzyme-linked-immunosorbent assays. Results Anopheles gambiae (sensu lato) (s.l.) comprised 18.4% of mosquitoes collected with An. arabiensis representing 66.27% of the sibling species. The proportion of An. rufipes (2.7%) collected was high with a humanbiting rate ranging between 0.441 and 11.083 bites/person/night (b/p/n) and an anthropophagic rate of 15.36%. Although overall the members of An. gambiae complex were responsible for most of the transmission with entomological inoculation rates (EIR) reaching 1.221 infective bites/person/night (ib/p/n), An. arabiensis and An.coluzzii were the most implicated. The roles of An. funestus, An. pharoensis and An. paludis were minor. Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein rate in Anopheles rufipes varied from 0.6 to 5.7% with EIR values between 0.010 and 0.481 ib/p/n Conclusions The study highlights the epidemiological role of An. rufipes alongside the members of the An.gambiae complex, and several other sympatric species in human malaria transmission during the wet season in northern Cameroon. For the first time in Cameroon, An. rufipes has been shown to be an important local malaria vector, emphasising the need to review the malaria entomological profile across the country as pre-requisite to effective vector management strategies

Clinical validation of Guardant360 CDx as a blood-based companion diagnostic for sotorasib

OBJECTIVES Effective therapy for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) depends on morphological and genomic classification, with comprehensive screening for guideline-recommended biomarkers critical to guide treatment. Companion diagnostics, which provide robust genotyping results, represent an important component of personalized oncology. We evaluated the clinical validity of Guardant360 CDx as a companion diagnostic for sotorasib for detection of KRAS p.G12C, an important oncogenic NSCLC driver mutation. MATERIALS AND METHODS KRAS p.G12C was tested in NSCLC patients from CodeBreaK100 (NCT03600833) in pretreatment plasma samples using Guardant360 CDx liquid biopsy and archival tissue samples using therascreen® KRAS RGQ polymerase chain reaction (PCR) kit tissue testing. Matched tissue and plasma samples were procured from other clinical trials or commercial vendors, and results were compared. Demographics and clinical characteristics and objective response rate (ORR) were evaluated. RESULTS Of 126 CodeBreaK patients, 112 (88.9%) were tested for KRASp.G12C mutations with Guardant360 CDx. Among 189 patients in the extended analysis cohort, the positive and negative percent agreement (95% CI) for Guardant360 CDx plasma testing relative to therascreen® KRAS RGQ PCR kit tissue testing were 0.71 (0.62, 0.79) and 1.00 (0.95, 1.00), respectively; overall percent agreement (95% CI) was 0.82 (0.76, 0.87). TP53 co-mutations were the most common regardless of KRAS p.G12C status (KRAS p.G12C-positive, 53.4%; KRAS p.G12C-negative, 45.5%). STK11 was co-mutated in 26.1% of KRAS p.G12C-positive samples. The ORR was similar among patients selected by plasma and tissue testing. CONCLUSION Comprehensive genotyping for all therapeutic targets including KRAS p.G12C is critical for management of NSCLC. Liquid biopsy using Guardant360 CDx has clinical validity for identification of patients with KRASp.G12C-mutant NSCLC and, augmented by tissue testing methodologies as outlined on the approved product label, will identify patients for treatment with sotorasib