Improved seed handling techniques for Juniperus polycarpos

Juniperus polycarpos (K. Koch) is one of six native juniper forest tree species in Iran whose population size is declining continuously. The ultimate aim of the research presented in this thesis was to increase the regeneration potential of J. polycarpos by identifying factors influencing seed quality and develop methods that increase germination capacity and vigor. The research focused on impact of infection by dwarf mistletoe on reproductive output, methods for sorting unproductive seeds from seed lots, improving germination capacity and vigor through sorting techniques and by breaking seed dormancy. The results show that moderate level of infection significantly (p < 0.05) reduced mean number of cones per unit area of the host crown, increasing the number of damaged seeds, reducing seed size and germination capacity. For sorting viable seeds from non-viable seeds, three methods were applied: Incubation, Drying and Separation (IDS), modified specific gravity (SG) separation and near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). For the IDS experiments, seven days incubation followed by nine hours of drying and sedimentation in pure water or 200 g sucrose /l water solution resulted in 75% and 82% sunken-viable seeds, respectively. For seeds soaked for 48 hours, SG separation in 600 g/l sucrose solution also resulted in 77% sunken-viable seeds. For both sorting techniques, only 4% of viable seeds were lost into the discarded floating fraction. NIR spectroscopy of individual seeds discriminated between viable and non-viable seeds of J. polycarpos with 98% and 100% accuracy, respectively based on spectral differences attributed to seed coat chemical composition and storage reserves. For finding optimal dormancy breaking treatment and subsequent stimulation of germination capacity and vigor of J. polycarpos seeds, different pretreatments were tested. The results showed warm stratification for sixteen weeks followed by twelve weeks of cold stratification resulted in 72% germination after 12 days compared with 16-week cold-stratification alone (42%) and the control (8%). Exogenous application of phytohormones alone or in combination with cold stratification resulted in less than 50% germination, though significantly (p < 0.01) higher than the control (8%). As a whole, the results have strong implication for active restoration by increasing seedling production potential in nurseries. Keywords: dormancy, IDS, NIRS, seed sorting, stratification, seed quality, seed vigor Author’s address: Abolfazl Daneshvar, SLU, Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, P.O. Box 49, SE-230 53 Alnarp, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

Physico-chemical characteristics and heavy metal concentrations of copper mine wastes in Zambia: implications for pollution risk and restoration

Soil characterization is a vital activity to develop appropriate and effective restoration protocols for mine wastelands while insights into the total content of heavy metals in the soil is an important step in estimating the hazards that the metals may pose to the vital roles of soil in the ecosystem. This study addressed the following research questions: (1) To what extent do the physico-chemical characteristics vary between mine waste sediments and the nearby forest soil? (2) Are the concentrations of heavy metals high enough to be considered as toxic? and (3) Are heavy metals present in mine waste sediments potential sources of pollution? We hypothesized that the physico-chemical characteristics of mine waste sediments are less favorably for plant establishment and growth while the concentrations of heavy metals are very high, thus restricting the success of revegetation of mine waste lands. Mine waste sediments were sampled following a diagonal transect across tailings dams, overburden dump sites and the local forest soil from the top layer (0-20 cm) using a closed auger. Samples were analyzed for arsenic, barium, lead, cadmium, cobalt, copper, chromium, nickel, vanadium, and zinc as well as for soil physico-chemical properties. The mine waste sediments were dominated by silt whilst the forest soil by sand particles, with significantly high bulk density in the former. Both the forest soil and overburden sediments were acidic than the alkaline tailings dam sediment. Total organic carbon and nitrogen contents were significantly low in mine wasteland substrates but the concentration of Ca and Mg were significantly higher in tailings dam substrate than the forest soil. The concentrations of available P, K and Na were similar across sites. The mean concentrations of heavy metals were significantly (p &lt; 0.01) higher in mine waste sediments than the forest soil; except for cadmium (p = 0.213). The order of contamination by heavy metals on the tailings was Cu > Co > Ba > Ni > As > Zn > Pb > Cr > V > Cd, and that on the overburdens was Cu > Co > Ba > Ni > Zn > Cr > Pb > V > As > Cd. The pollution load index (PLI) was nearly twice higher for the tailings dam (8.97) than the overburden (5.84). The findings show that the copper mine wastes (the tailings dams and overburden waste rock sites) are highly contaminated by heavy metals; which, in turn, might pose serious hazards to human health and agricultural productivity. In addition, poor macro-nutrient availability, substrate compaction and soil acidity (particularly on overburden sites) coupled with toxic level of heavy metals would be the main challenges for successful phytostabilization of copper mine wastelands

Single seed Near Infrared Spectroscopy discriminates viable and non-viable seeds of Juniperus polycarpos

A large quantity of non-viable (empty, insect-attacked and shriveled) seeds of Juniperus polycarpos (K. Koch) is often encountered during seed collection, which should be removed from the seed lots to ensure precision sowing in the nursery or out in the field. The aims of this study were to evaluate different modelling approaches and to examine the sensitivity of the change in detection system (Silicon-detector in the shorter vis-a-vis InGsAs-detector in the longer NIR regions) for discriminating non-viable seeds from viable seeds by Near Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. NIR reflectance spectra were collected from single seeds, and discriminant models were developed by Partial Least Squares - Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) and Orthogonal Projection to Latent Structures - Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA) using the entire or selected NIR regions. Both modelling approaches resulted in 98% and 100% classification accuracy for viable and non-viable seeds in the test set, respectively. However, OPLS-DA models were superb in terms of model parsimony and information quality. Modelling in the shorter and longer wavelength region also resulted in similar classification accuracy, suggesting that prediction of class membership is insensitive to change in the detection system. The origins of spectral differences between non-viable and viable seeds were attributed to differences in seed coat chemical composition, mainly terpenoids that were dominant in non-viable seeds and storage reserves in viable seeds. In conclusion, the results demonstrate that NIR spectroscopy has great potential as seed sorting technology to upgrade seed lot quality that ensures precision sowing

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic