Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

COMPARISON OF SUBARACHNOID MAGNESIUM SULFATE AND FENTANYL AS ADJUVANTS WITH 0.5% HEAVY BUPIVACAINE FOR POSTOPERATIVE ANALGESIA IN INFRA-UMBILICAL SURGERIES

Objectives: The objective of the study was to compare the efficacy of adjuvant use of subarachnoid fentanyl with the adjuvant use of subarachnoid magnesium sulfate as adjuvants to bupivacaine in subarachnoid block for infraumbilical surgeries in terms of: (1) Block characteristics, namely, time taken for onset of block and time taken for regression of block, (2) Hemodynamic stability in intra- and post-operative phase. Methods: A total of 70 ASA I/II patients scheduled for infra-umbilical surgery were enrolled in the study and were randomized either to Group F (0.5 mL Fentanyl+3 mL 0.5% Bupivacaine) (n=35) or to Group M (0.5 mL 20% Magnesium sulfate+3 mL 0.5% Bupivacaine). Time to achieve onset of block, duration of block. Data were analyzed using the Chi-square and Independent samples, t’-test. Results: Age of patients ranged from 18 to 55 years. The two groups were matched onset of sensory and motor block was significantly earlier in Magnesium sulfate group as compared to fentanyl group. Regression of motor and sensory block was significantly earlier in group where magnesium sulfate was used as an additive in contrast to fentanyl. No other complication except nausea (8.6%) and bradycardia (8.6%) was reported in any of the patient. Conclusion: Although magnesium sulfate appears to be a relatively safer alternative than fentanyl for adjuvant use with hyperbaric bupivacaine for post-operative pain management and to facilitate better block characteristics; however, it fails to achieve the analgesic effect even comparable to fentanyl. Further studies with inclusion of a control group and with changed drug–dose combinations are recommended to find out a better alternative

Low serum vitamin D in North Indian multi-drug resistant pulmonary tuberculosis patients: the role of diet and sunlight

AbstractBackground: Tuberculosis (TB) and malnutrition are major global health problems, with multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB complicating international efforts. The role of vitamin D in susceptibility to and as an adjunctive treatment for TB is being studied extensively, although no study has included MDR-TB patients in context to dietary profile with vitamin D levels and sunlight exposure.Objective: This study aimed to estimate vitamin D serum levels and examine their association with dietary intake of vitamin D and sun exposure in patients with MDR-TB.Methods: North Indian participants were enrolled in three groups: MDR-TB, drug-susceptible pulmonary TB (DS-PTB), and healthy controls. All consenting participants underwent the estimation of macro- and micronutrient intake and sunlight exposure using structured questionnaires. Serum biochemistry, including 25-hydroxyvitamin D and calcium levels, was measured, and the correlation between variables was determined.Results: 747 participants were enrolled. Significant differences among the three groups were found in mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, body mass index, macronutrient intake, dietary vitamin D and calcium content, and sun exposure index (SEI). All except sun exposure (SEI was highest in DS-PTB patients) were found to follow the trend: MDR-TB < DS-PTB < healthy controls. The mean serum vitamin D levels of all groups were deficient and correlated positively with dietary intake and SEI.Conclusion: In this study’s we found significant association of serum vitamin D concentrations, dietary intake and sunlight exposure in MDR-TB, DS-PTB patients and healthy controls. Dietary intake may be more important than sun exposure in determining serum levels. However, the significance of this finding is uncertain. Further studies are required to confirm the association, direction, and potential for vitamin D supplementation to treat or prevent MDR-TB infection

Low serum vitamin D in North Indian multi-drug resistant pulmonary tuberculosis patients: the role of diet and sunlight

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) and malnutrition are major global health problems, with multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB complicating international efforts. The role of vitamin D in susceptibility to and as an adjunctive treatment for TB is being studied extensively, although no study has included MDR-TB patients in context to dietary profile with vitamin D levels and sunlight exposure. Objective: This study aimed to estimate vitamin D serum levels and examine their association with dietary intake of vitamin D and sun exposure in patients with MDR-TB. Methods: North Indian participants were enrolled in three groups: MDR-TB, drug-susceptible pulmonary TB (DS-PTB), and healthy controls. All consenting participants underwent the estimation of macro- and micronutrient intake and sunlight exposure using structured questionnaires. Serum biochemistry, including 25-hydroxyvitamin D and calcium levels, was measured, and the correlation between variables was determined. Results: 747 participants were enrolled. Significant differences among the three groups were found in mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, body mass index, macronutrient intake, dietary vitamin D and calcium content, and sun exposure index (SEI). All except sun exposure (SEI was highest in DS-PTB patients) were found to follow the trend: MDR-TB  Conclusion: In this study’s we found significant association of serum vitamin D concentrations, dietary intake and sunlight exposure in MDR-TB, DS-PTB patients and healthy controls. Dietary intake may be more important than sun exposure in determining serum levels. However, the significance of this finding is uncertain. Further studies are required to confirm the association, direction, and potential for vitamin D supplementation to treat or prevent MDR-TB infection.</p

Book of Abstracts of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences (ICAMCS-2022)

It is a great privilege for us to present the abstract book of ICAMCS-2022 to the authors and the delegates of the event. We hope that you will find it useful, valuable, aspiring, and inspiring. This book is a record of abstracts of the keynote talks, invited talks, and papers presented by the participants, which indicates the progress and state of development in research at the time of writing the research article. It is an invaluable asset to all researchers. The book provides a permanent record of this asset. Conference Title: 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics and Computational SciencesConference Acronym: ICAMCS-2022Conference Date: 12-14 October 2022Conference Organizers: DIT University, Dehradun, IndiaConference Mode: Online (Virtual