Crime in the United States of America: testing the ‘Broken Window’ hypothesis

This study wishes to examine and validate the ‘broken window’ hypothesis among the fifty one states in the United States. The chosen method for this analysis is Johansen cointegration test to test for cointegration, and if any cointegrating vector is found, we proceed to test for Granger causality based on VECM. We test whether property crime (proxy for minor crime) leads to violent crime (proxy for major crime) in the fifty one states with respect to the period 1960 to 2007. Result of the study indicates that violent crime and property crime are cointegrated in forty eight states out of fifty one states. Further analysis to test for the validity of the broken window hypothesis provides stunning result whereby we found that the hypothesis is indeed valid in forty four out of forty eight states

Long-run relationships and dynamic interactions between housing and stock prices in Malaysia

Economists recognise that macroeconomic and financial variables have an impact on housing prices. In this study, we focus on the relationship between housing prices and stock prices in Thailand using quarterly data from the first quarter (Q1) of 1995 till the last quarter (Q4) of 2006. The analysis is conducted within a multivariate setting that incorporates the Stock Exchange of Thailand Composite Index and housing prices, the real gross domestic product and the consumer price index. In this paper, the autoregressive distributive lags (ARDL) cointegration test is applied to examine the variables' long-run relationships. We then employ the ARDL, DOLS and ML approaches to estimate the long-run parameters and impulse response functions based on a vector autoregression (VAR) framework to explore their dynamic interactions. Our results indicate positive relationships between housing prices and the macroeconomic and financial variables chosen. As regards their dynamic interactions, we note significant responses of housing prices to shocks in the three variables

Halal food and beverage trade: do restriction on religion, Halal certification, and OIC membership have any impact?

This study determined the worth of the Halal food and beverage trade. We imposed the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood after applying the gravity model (PPML). The economic size of trading partners, regional trade agreements, a shared border, and a shared language are determinants with a strong beneficial effect on commerce. On the other hand, the negative trade factors are the distance between trading parties, the exporting country's income, the exchange rate comparison, and landlocked trade. In the meantime, the income level of the importing nation and the colonial relationship appeared to have little impact on trade, as does OIC trade cooperation. Halal certification has a considerable beneficial influence. However, limitations on religious considerations (GRR and SHR) have a significant negative impact on trade.Baharom Abdul Hamid (Centre of Excellence in Islamic Social Finance INCEIF University Kuala Lumpur), Chariyawat Charoenchang (The State Enterprise Policy Office, Ministry of Finance), Ginanjar Dewandaru (Indonesia National Committee of Islamic Finance (KNKS) Kota Jakarta Selatan, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta)Includes bibliographical references

Determinants of flood fatalities: evidence from a panel data of 79 countries

There is available evidence from different parts of the world that floods and storm account for about 67 percent of the natural disasters. While, earthquake, landslides, drought, extreme temperature, wildfire and volcano eruptions contribute to the remaining 23 percent. In many developing countries, the frequent occurrences of natural disasters, particularly floods are not uncommon. Yearly recurrence of floods bring devastate economies. The objective of the present study is to investigate factors that can mitigate the impact of floods on human fatalities and damages. We use a panel of 79 countries for the period of 1981-2005 and employ the two-step system GMM estimator to show that the level of economic development, population, investment, openness and education impact flood fatalities, total people affected and total cost of damages

Financial risk exposures of the airlines industry: Evidence from Cathay Pacific Airways and China Airlines

This study explores the long run and dynamic relationships between the stock price of Cathay Pacific Airways and China Airlines against key determinants of financial risks exposure confronting the airline industry, which include interest-rate, exchange rate and fuel price risk exposures for the period of January 1996 to December 2011. The (Johansen & Juselius, 1990) cointegration technique was employed to detect any long time trending relationship followed Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Vector Auto-Regression (VAR). The generalised forecast error variance decomposition and the generalised impulse response function were employed to comprehend the effects of theses financial risk exposures. Our empirical results suggest that exchange rate movements have a substantial impact, compared to the fuel price and interest rate exposures against the stock price of the analysed airline. Our findings play a pertinent role in the determination of the respective airlines foreign vulnerability and financial policies which would be helpful for industry players and policy makers from a financial stability perspective

Defense spending - economic growth nexus in selected OIC countries: a long-run causality analysis

This paper investigates the long run Granger causality between defense spending and economic growth for 20 selected Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) by employing the Error-Correction Model (ECM) framework using annual data for the period 1960 to 2005. defense spending (milex) is measured using the ratio of defense spending to gross domestic product (GDP); while economic growth (rgdpc) is proxy by the real GDP per capita. The results of our study indicated that one way long run Granger causality was found running from economic growth to defense spending for Burkina Faso, Indonesia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Togo and Turkey. On the other hand, one way long run Granger causality was found running from defense spending to economic growth was found for Iran, Mauritania and Nigeria. However for the rest of the OIC countries, the results suggested no relationship between defense spending and economic growth

The relationship between defense, education and health expenditures in selected Asian countries

This study explores the inter-relationship between military expenditure, education expenditure and health expenditure in eight selected Asian countries namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and South Korea. Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Restricted Error Correction Model (ARDL-RECM) procedure was utilized in the analysis. The empirical results suggest that, except for the case of Malaysia and Sri Lanka, whereby no meaningful interrelationship was detected between these three variables, the results for the rest of the countries are mixed, with differing granger causality being detected among these variables. The mixed results obtained in this study is an indicator of differing policy being implemented and will result in varying implication. Generally the error correction term is significant. Implying there is long-run relationship between defense spending, education and health expenditure

Pre and post crisis analysis of stock price and exchange rate: evidence from Malaysia

The furore and chaos created by the Asian financial crisis have ignited many studies on numerous subjects, and it is believed that the crisis has changed the way nations being administered and policies formed and implemented especially those regarding monetary and fiscal policies. In this study Johansen (1991) cointegration method was used and the period was divided into two sub periods, albeit pre crisis and post crisis. The results obtained are similar with a number of past literatures pointing to no long run relationship between stock price and exchange rate for both periods

Crime and economic conditions in Malaysia

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of economic conditions on various categories of criminal activities in Malaysia for the period 1973‐2003. Design/methodology/approach: The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure was employed as the main tool. Dynamic ordinary least squares was also used to check the robustness of the results. Findings: The results indicate that murder, armed robbery, rape, assault, daylight burglary, and motorcycle theft exhibit long‐run relationships with economic conditions, and the causal effect in all cases runs from economic conditions to crime rates and not vice versa. In the long‐run, strong economic performances have a positive impact on murder, rape, assault, daylight burglary, and motorcycle theft, while on the other hand, economic conditions have negative impact on armed robbery. Research limitations/implications: Further researches using other macroeconomic variables and also other countries are encouraged. Practical implications: The important implication of this result is that real gross national product per capita is an exogenous variable and it is, therefore, useful for fiscal policy variable. Government of the day should seriously consider the results of this study in any crimefighting policies that are formulated. Originality/value: An economic viewpoint of criminal activities in Malaysia

COMPETITION, DIVERSIFICATION, AND STABILITY IN THE INDONESIAN BANKING SYSTEM

We examine the impact of competition and portfolio diversification on banking stability for conventional and Islamic banks in Indonesia. We find that the Islamic banking sector is less stable, when compared to the conventional banking sector. Competition in the banking sector reduces stability, while diversification enhances it. We find that competition negatively impacts the Islamic banks, but diversification has no impact on these banks. An interesting finding is that competition and diversification complement each other in enhancing the stability of the Indonesian banking sector. These findings carry an important policy implication for the banking sector of Indonesia