A Welfare Based Approach for choosing the Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Regime in Tunisia

The inflation targeting is considered as an attractive monetary policy strategy in order to handle the inflation rate and improves the credibility of the central bank. The paper provides a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with the specificity of employing a small open economy. This model analyzes the impact of different regimes of inflation targeting and exchange rate in Tunisia in terms of the welfare loss and describes some aspects of the Tunisian’s economy. The results displays that the social loss is higher under the managed exchange rate than the flexible exchange rate regime for all the shocks. Then in terms of the inflation targeting index, it demonstrates that the consumer prices index outperforms the domestic inflation except for the productivity shock, in contrast to the result of (Parrado, 2004). Finally the strict is superior to the flexible inflation targeting except with the foreign inflation and the domestic interest rate shock

The Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Tunisia

The paper is aimed to the behaviour analysis of the Tunisian economy with inflation trageting regime represented by a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model This model is employed as a macroeconomic method of modelization to analyze this policy estimated with the Bayesian technique in a response to many exogenous shocks The paper tests the model s proprieties on recent Tunisian data Moreover it shows the monetary policy transmission mechanism The model seems to give a satisfactory approximation of the Tunisian economy behaviour The ultimate goal of the model is to be used in simulation exercises policy advice and forecasting at the Bank ofTunisi

Prévision du NO2 en utilisant la méthode du réseau de neurones

Cet article décrit une procédure de modélisation du phénomène de dispersion de la concentration du dioxyde de nitrogène (NO2) en utilisant la technique du perceptron multicouche (MLP). Notre objectif est de prouver que la concentration du NO2 est une variable autorégressive et expliquée par des variables météorologiques. Pour ce faire, nous avons procédé par trois étapes : dans la première étape nous avons utilisé la variable concentration NO2 uniquement, dans la seconde étape nous avons utilisé les variables météorologiques uniquement et dans la troisième étape nous avons utilisé la concentration du NO2 combinée avec les variables météorologiques. Les résultats ont montré que le troisième cas est plus performant que les deux autres ce qui prouve notre hypothèse

THE RESPONSE OF THE CENTRAL BANK TO THE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENT: A DSGE-VAR APPROACH FOR TUNISIAN ECONOMY

The paper examines the choice of the central bank toward the movements of the nominal exchange rate and evaluates its effects on the volatility of the output growth and the inflation. The novel hybrid method of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium called the DSGE-VAR is proposed for analyzing this policy experiment in a small scale open economy in particular Tunisia. The contribution is provided to the empirical literature as we apply the Tunisian data with this model, which is rarely used in this context. Also treating the issue of the degree of response of the central bank to the exchange rate. To ameliorate the estimation, the Bayesian technique is carried out for the sample 1980:q1 to 2011 q4. Our results reveal that the central bank should not react or softly react to the exchange rate. Also the overall inflation volatility is more pronounced with the fixed exchange rate regime for most of the shocks except for the productivity and the interest rate. Similarly, the output volatility is higher with this regime with the majority of the shocks exempting the foreign interest rate   and the interest rate shocks