Forecasting and Explaining Non-Performing Assets in Indian Banking Groups Using Panel Econometrics and Explainable Machine Learning Models

This study examines the determinants and predictive dynamics of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) in Indian banking groups using an integrated framework combining panel econometric techniques, machine learning models, and explainable artificial intelligence. The analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset comprising 108 observations covering the period 1998-2024, incorporating key macroeconomic variables such as credit growth, GDP growth, inflation, and lending interest rates. Panel estimations using Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects, and Random Effects models are conducted, with the Hausman test supporting the Random Effects specification. The results indicate that lending interest rates have a positive and statistically significant impact on NPAs, whereas inflation exhibits a significant negative effect. Diagnostic tests reveal the presence of heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-sectional dependence, highlighting the persistent and systemic nature of NPAs. Robustness checks using an IV-based dynamic panel model and time-aware machine learning validation confirm the persistence of asset quality trends. To enhance predictive performance, the study employs Linear Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost models, with XGBoost demonstrating the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.84). SHAP analysis identifies lagged NPAs and interest rates as key drivers. Policy-wise, the findings suggest that regulators should prioritize the monitoring of interest rate cycles and historical credit persistence over aggregate GDP trends to mitigate systemic asset quality risks. The study underscores the importance of integrating econometric and data-driven approaches for effective risk assessment and supervisory policy formulation in the banking sector

De-Dollarization by Monetary Function: A Framework and a Functional Index

Aims: This study aims to reconceptualize de-dollarization by moving beyond aggregate currency shares and examining the distinct monetary functions performed by the US dollar, in order to clarify the structural limits and risks associated with substitution away from the dollar. Study Design: This is a theoretical and analytical study grounded in international monetary economics, macro-financial stability theory, and international political economy. Methodology: The paper develops a formal analytical framework that decomposes international currency use into four functionally distinct roles: unit of account, medium of exchange, store of value, and financial anchoring. De-dollarization is modeled as functional bypass rather than generalized substitution, with feasibility constrained by balance-sheet risk, safe-asset scarcity, settlement efficiency, and sudden-stop dynamics. A Functional De-Dollarization Index (FDI) is introduced to summarize effective monetary sovereignty net of macro-financial stability costs. Results: The analysis shows that substitution away from the US dollar is relatively feasible in pricing and payment functions but sharply constrained in store-of-value and financial-anchoring roles, particularly in financially shallow economies. Premature bypass in safety- and finance-critical functions generates nonlinear instability through currency mismatch, financing contractions, and settlement fragmentation. As a result, partial dollarization emerges as a second-best equilibrium that stabilizes output and capital flows under global risk shocks. Conclusion: This paper reconceptualizes de-dollarization not as hegemonic decline, but as a function-specific reallocation of monetary roles shaped by infrastructure scarcity and constrained by macro-financial risk. International monetary power arises not from currency share dominance per se, but from the ability to provide stability-critical monetary infrastructure under stress. At present, the currency that can comprehensively fulfill this role is, in practice, limited to the US dollar

Structure of Labour Market in Coir Spinning and Its Implications for Workers\u27 Welfare: Evidence from Kerala

The coir industry in Kerala is one of the oldest traditional and rural employment-generating industries in Kerala, but the persistence of labour market imperfections significantly influences worker outcomes. Although previous studies qualitatively highlight these imperfections, quantitative evidence on the degree of monopsony power remains scarce. This study estimates the elasticity of labour supply as a direct indicator of the monopsony power in the coir spinning labour market and its effects on workers\u27 welfare. The study uses panel data from 40 coir primary societies in the Alappuzha district from 2010 to 2024. To deal with the possibility of endogeneity between wage and labour supply, use a log–log OLS model and a Two Stage Least Squares(2SLS) panel regression. The Baseline OLS results show a wage elasticity of 0.838 and a bonus elasticity of 0.100, reflecting an inelastic labour supply and limited responsiveness to monetary incentives. After correcting for endogeneity, the 2SLS results indicate a higher wage elasticity (1.50) and a negative elasticity for bonuses (-0.38), suggesting the presence of income effects and structural constraints. Diagnosis tests confirm the strength and validity of instruments. The finding indicates that the monopsonistic condition persists in the coir spinning sector, underscoring the need for measures that enhance the wage structure, reduce labour immobility, and improve workers\u27 welfare

Potential Drivers of Gender Equity in Maritime Logistics: A Systematic Review through the Lens of Gendered Organization Theory

Aims: To employ Gendered Organization Theory (GOT) to synthesize research on drivers of gender equity in male-dominated sectors and identify transferable strategies for the maritime logistics industry. Study Design: Systematic Literature Review (SLR) Place and Duration of Study: A structured search of the Scopus database was conducted to identify relevant peer-reviewed literature published between 2015 and 2025. Methodology: A PRISMA-based methodology was used for the SLR. Given the nascent stage of gender equity research, specifically within maritime logistics, a comparative approach was adopted. The review selected and analyzed 40 peer-reviewed articles from analogous male-dominated sectors (including mining, STEM, and military) that share structural characteristics with the maritime industry. Thematic analysis was utilized to consolidate diverse findings into a coherent framework grounded in Gendered Organization Theory. Results: The review has identified structural constraints, organizational culture, and practices that limit women in their participation in and career development in male-dominated sectors. Thematic analysis revealed that six areas of intervention exist, including institutionalized norms, a challenge to the ideal worker norm, gender-sensitive HR, mentorship, organizational culture, and bias awareness with structural change. These transferable drivers are essential for addressing the specific challenges of the maritime logistics sector. Conclusion: The findings provide a GOT-grounded framework for advancing equity in maritime logistics. The study underscores that because maritime-specific data is limited, adopting proven interventions from analogous male-dominated industries is crucial. A holistic, intersectional approach is required to move organizations beyond tokenistic gestures and dismantle systemic barriers

The Influence of Career Path, Job Stress, and Work Conflict on Employee Performance at the East Medan Primary Tax Service Office

This study aims to analyze the influence of career path, job stress, and work conflict on employee performance at the East Medan Primary Tax Service Office. This study employed a quantitative approach using a survey method with a census of 90 employees as research respondents. The data were analyzed using validity and reliability tests, classical assumption tests, and multiple linear regression analysis with SPSS. The results indicate that partially, career path has a positive and significant effect on employee performance, while job stress and work conflict do not have a significant effect. Simultaneously, career path, job stress, and work conflict have a positive and significant effect on employee performance. The coefficient of determination (R² = 50.9%) shows that the model explains a moderate proportion of the variance in employee performance. These findings suggest that effective career path management plays an important role in improving employee performance through clear promotion systems, training, and competency development. However, the results related to job stress and work conflict appear to be context-specific, indicating the need for further research to explore the boundary conditions and underlying mechanisms of these relationships in different organizational settings

The Effect of Work Meaning, Work-Life Balance, and Work Experience on Employee Performance at the Pratama Tax Service Office in West Medan

This study aims to analyze the influence of work meaning, work-life balance, and work experience on employee performance at the West Medan Primary Tax Service Office, both partially and simultaneously. A quantitative approach was employed using a survey method with a sample of 54 employees (n = 54). Data were collected through questionnaires and analyzed using multiple linear regression with SPSS. The results indicate that, partially, work meaning and work experience have a positive and significant effect on employee performance, while work-life balance does not show a significant effect. However, simultaneously, all three variables significantly explain employee performance. These findings suggest that psychological factors such as work meaning and individual attributes such as work experience play a more prominent role in enhancing employee performance compared to work-life balance in this organizational context. Practically, organizations are encouraged to strengthen employees’ sense of meaningful work and provide opportunities to enhance experience through training and career development programs

Cybersecurity Risk Exposure and Corporate Reputation in Digital-Driven Firms

The increasing reliance on digital technologies has heightened organizations’ exposure to cybersecurity risks, with significant implications for corporate reputation. This study examines the relationship between external security threats, internal security vulnerabilities, and the corporate reputation of digital-driven firms. Adopting a descriptive research design, data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered to 397 employees and management staff across selected digital-driven organizations in Nigeria. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression analysis. The findings reveal that external security threats (β = 0.689, p < 0.05) and internal security vulnerabilities (β = 0.667, p < 0.05) have a significant relationship with corporate reputation. The results further indicate that higher exposure to cybersecurity risks is associated with greater reputational damage, as stakeholders perceive affected organizations as less reliable and secure. This underscores the sensitivity of corporate reputation to both externally driven cyberattacks and internally induced security weaknesses. The study concludes that effective management of cybersecurity risks is critical for sustaining stakeholder trust and organizational credibility in digital-driven environments. It recommends that firms strengthen cybersecurity infrastructure, enhance internal controls, and implement continuous employee training to mitigate both external threats and internal vulnerabilities

VAT and Revenue Mobilisation in Ghana: An Empirical Assessment of Tax Administration Efficiency (2013-2023)

Background: Value Added Tax (VAT) has become a central pillar of domestic revenue mobilisation in Ghana, yet persistent administrative and compliance challenges continue to constrain its full revenue potential. Aims:  This study empirically examines the contribution of VAT to total tax revenue and its implications for tax administration efficiency in Ghana over the period 2013 to 2023. Method: Using a mixed methods approach, the study combines time series data on VAT and total tax revenue with primary survey data collected from Ghana Revenue Authority officials in Accra Central and Accra West. Descriptive statistics, trend analysis, correlation, and regression techniques were employed to analyse revenue performance, administrative challenges, and compliance dynamics. Results: The findings reveal a strong and statistically significant positive relationship between VAT revenue and total tax revenue, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93 and an R-squared value of 0.87, indicating that variations in VAT revenue explain a substantial proportion of changes in overall tax revenue. Trend analysis shows that VAT revenue experienced notable fluctuations over the study period, reflecting macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, and administrative efficiency, with particularly strong growth observed between 2021 and 2023. Survey results further indicate that operational inefficiencies, limited automation, inadequate staff training, informal sector non-compliance, policy instability, and weak enforcement of penalties significantly undermine VAT administration.  Conclusion: The study showed that while VAT remains a critical driver of revenue mobilisation in Ghana, its effectiveness is heavily dependent on administrative capacity, policy consistency, and taxpayer compliance. Strengthening digital tax systems, expanding the tax net to include informal sector actors, enhancing staff capacity, and promoting taxpayer education are essential to improving VAT performance and sustaining long term revenue growth. The findings contribute to public finance literature by providing empirical evidence on the link between VAT performance and tax administration efficiency in a developing country context

The Influence of Quality of Work Life, Organizational Commitment, and Intellectual Intelligence on Employee Performance at the East Medan Primary Tax Service Office

Organizational commitment reflects the level of employee loyalty and attachment to the organization, which encourages individuals to contribute optimally toward achieving organizational goals. The growing demand for transparent and accountable public services compels government institutions to optimize employee performance to deliver high-quality services to the public. This study aims to examine the influence of quality of work life, organizational commitment, and intellectual intelligence on employee performance at the East Medan Pratama Tax Service Office. A quantitative approach was employed using a survey method through the distribution of questionnaires to employees. The population consisted of 92 employees, with a sample of 90 respondents selected using a saturated sampling technique. Data were analyzed using validity and reliability tests, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression analysis, t-tests, F-tests, and the coefficient of determination. The results indicate that organizational commitment and intellectual intelligence have a positive and significant partial effect on employee performance, whereas quality of work life does not show a significant partial effect. However, simultaneously, quality of work life, organizational commitment, and intellectual intelligence collectively have a positive and significant effect on employee performance. These findings suggest that enhancing organizational commitment and intellectual intelligence can contribute to improving employee performance within the organization

The Impact of Total Quality Management on Organizational Performance: A Case Study of First Bank of Nigeria Plc

This study examine impact of Total Quality Management (TQM) on organizational performance, using First Bank of Nigeria Plc as a case study. The growing competition in the banking sector of Nigeria and the constant customer complaints about the quality of services, prompted the research to identify TQM concepts like management commitment, teamwork, customer orientation, and continuous improvement as the compulsory means of improving the effectiveness of organizations. Using a structured survey questionnaire, data were collected from 80 management staff across five randomly selected branches of First Bank of Nigeria Plc. The chi-square test was employed to analyze responses and test the research hypothesis. The results demonstrated that TQM is a factor that enhances customer satisfaction, employee commitment, productivity, and profitability. Key findings include 100% recognition of TQM’s popularity in banking and a statistically significant relationship between TQM and organizational effectiveness (χ² = 2.671, p < 0.05). However, challenges such as resistance to change and inadequate training were identified as barriers to successful implementation. The research concludes that effective adoption of TQM can enhance First Bank, and other banks in Nigeria, to maintain competitiveness and achieve sustainable growth. It is recommended that management strengthen employee training, customer-focused strategies, and continuous improvement mechanisms to maximize TQM benefits