SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population

Multisensor Satellite Data and Field Studies for Unravelling the Structural Evolution and Gold Metallogeny of the Gerf Ophiolitic Nappe, Eastern Desert, Egypt

The gold mineralization located in the southern Eastern Desert of Egypt mostly occurs in characteristic geologic and structural settings. The gold-bearing quartz veins and the alteration zones are confined to the ductile shear zones between the highly deformed ophiolitic blocks, sheared metavolcanics, and gabbro-diorite rocks. The present study attempts to integrate multisensor remotely sensed data, structural analysis, and field investigation in unraveling the geologic and structural controls of gold mineralization in the Gabal Gerf area. Multispectral optical sensors of Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS (L8) and Sentinel-2B (S2B) were processed to map the lithologic rock units in the study area. Image processing algorithms including false color composite (FCC), band ratio (BR), principal component analysis (PCA), minimum noise fraction (MNF), and Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) were effective in producing a comprehensive geologic map of the area. The mafic index (MI) = (B13-0.9147) × (B10-1.4366) of ASTER (A) thermal bands and a combined band ratio of S2B and ASTER of (S2B3+A9)/(S2B12+A8) were dramatically successful in discriminating the ophiolitic assemblage, that are considered the favorable lithology for the gold mineralization. Three alteration zones of argillic, phyllic and propylitic were spatially recognized using the mineral indices and constrained energy minimization (CEM) approach to ASTER data. The datasets of ALSO PALSAR and Sentinel-1B were subjected to PCA and filtering to extract the lineaments and their spatial densities in the area.Furthermore, the structural analysis revealed that the area has been subjected to three main phases of deformation; (i) NE-SW convergence and sinistral transpression (D2); (ii) ~E-W far field compressional regime (D3), and (iii) extensional tectonics and terrane exhumation (D4)

Crustal Structure of the Nile Delta: Interpretation of Seismic-Constrained Satellite-Based Gravity Data

Interpretations of the tectonic setting of the Nile Delta of Egypt and its offshore extension are challenged by the thick sedimentary cover that conceals the underlying structures and by the paucity of deep seismic data and boreholes. A crustal thickness model, constrained by available seismic and geological data, was constructed for the Nile Delta by inversion of satellite gravity data (GOCO06s), and a two-dimensional (2D) forward density model was generated along the Delta’s entire length. Modelling results reveal the following: (1) the Nile Delta is formed of two distinctive crustal units: the Southern Delta Block (SDB) and the Northern Delta Basin (NDB) separated by a hinge zone, a feature widely reported from passive margin settings; (2) the SDB is characterized by an east–west-trending low-gravity (~−40 mGal) anomaly indicative of continental crust characteristics (depth to Moho (DTM): 36–38 km); (3) the NDB and its offshore extension are characterized by high gravity anomalies (hinge zone: ~10 mGal; Delta shore line: >40 mGal; south Herodotus Basin: ~140 mGal) that are here attributed to crustal thinning and stretching and decrease in DTM, which is ~35 km at the hinge zone, 30–32 km at the shoreline, and 22–20 km south of the Herodotus Basin; and (4) an apparent continuation of the east-northeast–west-southwest transitional crust of the Nile Delta towards the north-northeast–south-southwest-trending Levant margin in the east. These observations together with the reported extensional tectonics along the hinge zone, NDB and its offshore, the low to moderate seismic activity, and the absence of volcanic eruptions in the Nile Delta are all consistent with the NDB being a non-volcanic passive margin transition zone between the North African continental crust (SDB) and the Mediterranean oceanic crust (Herodotus Basin), with the NDB representing a westward extension of the Levant margin extensional transition zone

Evaluation of Groundwater Sensitivity to Pollution Using GIS-Based Modified DRASTIC-LU Model for Sustainable Development in the Nile Delta Region

The groundwater resources in the Nile Delta region are an important resource for freshwater because of rising water demand due to anthropogenic activities. The goal of this study is to quantify groundwater sensitivity to pollution in the Nile Delta by a modified GIS-based DRASTIC-LU model. In this study, we utilized two types of modified DRASTIC-LU models, generic and pesticide, to determine the groundwater vulnerability rates to contamination. The results of the generic DRASTIC-LU model showed that the research region, except for the northwestern part with moderate vulnerability of 3.38%, is highly and very highly vulnerable to pollution with 42.69 and 53.91%, respectively. Results from the pesticide DRASTIC-LU model, on the other hand, also confirmed that, except for the northwestern and southern parts with a moderate vulnerability of 9.78%, most the Nile Delta is highly and very highly vulnerable with 50.68 and 39.53%, respectively. A validation of the model generated was conducted based on nitrate concentrations in the groundwater and a sensitivity analysis. Based on the nitrate analysis, the final output map showed a strong association with the pesticide vulnerability model. Examining the model sensitivity revealed that the influence of depth to water and net recharge were the most important factors to consider

Evaluation of Groundwater Sensitivity to Pollution Using GIS-Based Modified DRASTIC-LU Model for Sustainable Development in the Nile Delta Region

The groundwater resources in the Nile Delta region are an important resource for freshwater because of rising water demand due to anthropogenic activities. The goal of this study is to quantify groundwater sensitivity to pollution in the Nile Delta by a modified GIS-based DRASTIC-LU model. In this study, we utilized two types of modified DRASTIC-LU models, generic and pesticide, to determine the groundwater vulnerability rates to contamination. The results of the generic DRASTIC-LU model showed that the research region, except for the northwestern part with moderate vulnerability of 3.38%, is highly and very highly vulnerable to pollution with 42.69 and 53.91%, respectively. Results from the pesticide DRASTIC-LU model, on the other hand, also confirmed that, except for the northwestern and southern parts with a moderate vulnerability of 9.78%, most the Nile Delta is highly and very highly vulnerable with 50.68 and 39.53%, respectively. A validation of the model generated was conducted based on nitrate concentrations in the groundwater and a sensitivity analysis. Based on the nitrate analysis, the final output map showed a strong association with the pesticide vulnerability model. Examining the model sensitivity revealed that the influence of depth to water and net recharge were the most important factors to consider

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.The aim of this study was to inform vaccination prioritization by modelling the impact of vaccination on elective inpatient surgery. The study found that patients aged at least 70 years needing elective surgery should be prioritized alongside other high-risk groups during early vaccination programmes. Once vaccines are rolled out to younger populations, prioritizing surgical patients is advantageous

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population