When do (explicit) threats of sanctions work?

This thesis attempts to establish a set of conditions under which explicit threats of economic sanctions work in cases where a target state has a desire to violate a norm or standard of importance to the sender state. In order to address this question, a game-theoretic model incorporating the three main stages of sanctions effectiveness is analyzed under different assumptions about the nature of the information available to the disputants and about their preferences over the different possible outcomes. In the model developed here, the following conditions must be met in order for an explicit of economic sanctions to be effective: (1) the target state must prefer to violate a norm or standard of importance to the sender state; (2) the sender state must prefer to threaten potent sanctions; and (3) the target state must prefer to back down given a threat of potent sanctions, rather than stand firm and risk having sanctions imposed. The findings in this thesis suggest that, whenever an explicit threat of sanctions would be effective in extracting concessions from the targeted state, the implicit threat that potent sanctions would otherwise be explicitly, and effectively, threatened is sufficient to deter the target from violating the norm in the first place. Conversely, to the extent that explicit threats of sanctions are observed, the target state will not be prepared to make concessions. The only exception is if mixed strategies are involved

Community Acceptance of Wind Energy Developments: Experience from Wind Energy Scarce Regions in Europe

Renewable energy plays an important role in the transition to a low emission society, yet in many regions energy projects have resulted in increasing societal polarization. Based on a comprehensive literature review and a survey among stakeholders from specific regions in Germany, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland and Spain with little prior experience with wind energy, we highlight six categories of factors that shape community acceptance of onshore wind energy development: technical characteristics of wind energy projects, environmental impacts, economic impacts, societal impacts, contextual factors and individual characteristics. We identify key similarities in acceptance-related patterns of wind energy development across the selected regions, but also important differences, highlighting the very context-specific nature of community acceptance. The findings contribute to improving the understanding of the forces, factors and relationships at play between policy frameworks and perceptions of wind energy under different conditions. We conclude by proposing policy recommendations regarding measures to increase the positive impacts and reduce the negative impacts of wind energy projects, and to strengthen existing drivers and reduce barriers to community acceptance of wind energy development

Geopolitiske virkninger av lavutslippssamfunnet

I denne rapporten presenteres hovedfunn fra ny forskning som belyser geopolitiske virkninger av overgangen til lavutslippssamfunnet og hvilke konsekvenser denne utviklingen har for Norge. Det vektlegges at en ny global klimaavtale, EUs klima- og energipolitikk, og utviklingen til noen nøkkelaktører, og i regionale og globale energimarkeder vil være sentrale påvirkningsfaktorer for Norges politikkutforming fremover. Etterspørselen etter energi globalt vil øke i takt med befolkningsvekst og velstandsutvikling, samtidig som en omfattende omstilling i den globale energisektoren vil være nødvendig for å kutte klimagassutslipp. Vi finner at en viktig drivkraft i energiomstillingsprosesser er selvforsyning av energi. Store land og energimarkeder legger stadig større vekt på selvforsyning, noe som gir Norge som energiaktør både utfordringer og nye muligheter. Nyvinninger i fornybarteknologi og desentraliserte løsninger vil gjøre nye energiløsninger mulig både i industrialiserte land og i framvoksende økonomier. Dette vil ramme Norge som olje- og gasseksportør. Lave olje- og gasspriser skaper også utfordringer for Norge de nærmeste årene. Men endringene i verdens energimarkeder skaper også nye muligheter for Norge. Ved å være en godt forberedt og omstillingsklar energiaktør som kan levere teknologiske og finansielle løsninger til land som vil øke sitt energibehov samtidig som klimagassutslippene skal ned, kan Norge bidra med løsninger til energiomstillingsprosesser i andre land og gjennom internasjonalt samarbei

Geopolitiske virkninger av lavutslippssamfunnet

I denne rapporten presenteres hovedfunn fra ny forskning som belyser geopolitiske virkninger av overgangen til lavutslippssamfunnet og hvilke konsekvenser denne utviklingen har for Norge. Det vektlegges at en ny global klimaavtale, EUs klima- og energipolitikk, og utviklingen til noen nøkkelaktører, og i regionale og globale energimarkeder vil være sentrale påvirkningsfaktorer for Norges politikkutforming fremover. Etterspørselen etter energi globalt vil øke i takt med befolkningsvekst og velstandsutvikling, samtidig som en omfattende omstilling i den globale energisektoren vil være nødvendig for å kutte klimagassutslipp. Vi finner at en viktig drivkraft i energiomstillingsprosesser er selvforsyning av energi. Store land og energimarkeder legger stadig større vekt på selvforsyning, noe som gir Norge som energiaktør både utfordringer og nye muligheter. Nyvinninger i fornybarteknologi og desentraliserte løsninger vil gjøre nye energiløsninger mulig både i industrialiserte land og i framvoksende økonomier. Dette vil ramme Norge som olje- og gasseksportør. Lave olje- og gasspriser skaper også utfordringer for Norge de nærmeste årene. Men endringene i verdens energimarkeder skaper også nye muligheter for Norge. Ved å være en godt forberedt og omstillingsklar energiaktør som kan levere teknologiske og finansielle løsninger til land som vil øke sitt energibehov samtidig som klimagassutslippene skal ned, kan Norge bidra med løsninger til energiomstillingsprosesser i andre land og gjennom internasjonalt samarbei

Adaptation to Climate Change in the European Union: Efficiency vs. Equity Considerations. CEPS Working Document No. 301, September 2008

EU climate policy is based on GHG emissions reduction (mitigation) coupled with measures aimed at responding efficiently to the unavoidable consequences of climate change (adaptation). However, as the European Commission recently stated in its Green Paper on adaptation in Europe, there is still a need to develop an overall EU adaptation strategy. Moreover, such a strategy should take into consideration both efficiency and equity concerns. In this article we propose a framework for EU adaptation policy that addresses both concerns and which enables a transparent decision-making process. In the proposed scheme universal weightings of the individual policy objectives have to be agreed upon prior to actual decision-making

Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime) or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly). To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1) incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2) incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3) incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly

Emission trading: Participation enforcement determines the need for compliance enforcement

We identify and explain significant differences between the compliance enforcement systems of three cap-and-trade programmes: the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), the US SO2 emission trading programme and the Kyoto Protocol. Because EU-ETS's compliance enforcement system is somewhat less potent than that of US S02, but vastly more potent than Kyoto's, it might be tempting to predict that EU-ETS will (I) not quite achieve the S02 programme's near-perfect compliance rates, yet (2) achieve significantly better compliance rates than Kyoto. However, we offer a novel theoretical framework suggesting that how compliance enforcement affects compliance will depend on how the emission trading programme addresses participation. We conclude that while (I) will likely prove correct, (2) will not; Kyoto may even outperform EU-ETS compliance-wise because whereas EU-ETS (and US S02) specify mandatory participation, most Kyoto member countries participate voluntarily.compliance; emission trading; enforcement; norms; participation

Objectives of public economic policy and the adaptation to climate change

Much can be learned about adaptation by applying structures and methodologies already used in other research fields. This study employs a public economic policy approach to investigate how - or if at all - adaptation should be supported by the public sector. Three different fields of adaptation activity are identified which are especially relevant for government intervention and the study proposes ways in which government intervention could be conducted. The analysis takes into account that developing regions are particularly vulnerable and they have insufficient funds to adequately adapt to climate change.adaptation, climate change, public goods, development assistance, distribution, weight factors,