A Note on Estimated Coefficients in Random Effects Probit Models.

This note points out to applied researchers what adjustments are needed to the coefficient estimates in a random effects probit model in order to make valid comparisons in terms of coefficient estimates and marginal effects across different specifications. These adjustments are necessary because of the normalization that is used by standard software in order to facilitate easy estimation of the random effects probit model.ECONOMIC MODELS ; EVALUATION

Are there asymmetries in the effects of training on the conditional male wage distribution?

Recent studies have used quantile regression (QR) techniques to estimate the impact of education on the location, scale and shape of the conditional wage distribution. In our paper we investigate the degree to which work-related training – another important form of human capital – affects the location, scale and shape of the conditional wage distribution. Using the first six waves of the European Community Household Panel, we utilise both ordinary least squares and QR techniques to estimate associations between work-related training and wages for private sector men in ten European Union countries. Our results show that, for the majority of countries, there is a fairly uniform association between training and hourly wages across the conditional wage distribution. However, there are considerable differences across countries in mean associations between training and wages

A hazard model of the probability of medical school dropout in the United Kingdom

From individual level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we use multilevel models to analyse the probability that an individual student will drop out of medical school. We find that academic preparedness—both in terms of previous subjects studied and levels of attainment therein—is the major influence on withdrawal by medical students. Additionally, males and more mature students are more likely to withdraw than females or younger students respectively. We find evidence that the factors influencing the decision to transfer course differ from those affecting the decision to drop out for other reasons

MCMC for Bayesian uncertainty quantification from time-series data

In computational neuroscience, Neural Population Models (NPMs) are mechanistic models that describe brain physiology in a range of different states. Within computational neuroscience there is growing interest in the inverse problem of inferring NPM parameters from recordings such as the EEG (Electroencephalogram). Uncertainty quantification is essential in this application area in order to infer the mechanistic effect of interventions such as anaesthesia. This paper presents Open image in new window software for Bayesian uncertainty quantification in the parameters of NPMs from approximately stationary data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Modern MCMC methods require first order (and in some cases higher order) derivatives of the posterior density. The software presented offers two distinct methods of evaluating derivatives: finite differences and exact derivatives obtained through Algorithmic Differentiation (AD). For AD, two different implementations are used: the open source Stan Math Library and the commercially licenced Open image in new window tool distributed by NAG (Numerical Algorithms Group). The use of derivative information in MCMC sampling is demonstrated through a simple example, the noise-driven harmonic oscillator. And different methods for computing derivatives are compared. The software is written in a modular object-oriented way such that it can be extended to derivative based MCMC for other scientific domains

Image-Based Monte-Carlo Localisation without a Map

In this paper, we propose a way to fuse the image-based localisation approach with the Monte-Carlo localisation approach. The method we propose does not suffer of the major limitation of the two separated methods: the need of a metric map of the environment for the Monte-Carlo localisation and the failure of the image-based approach in environments with spatial periodicity (perceptual aliasing). The approach we developed exploits the properties of the Fourier Transform of the omnidirectional images and uses the similarity between the images to weights the beliefs about the robot position. Successful experiments in large indoor environment are presented in which we do not used a priory information on the metrical map of the environment

Improving trading saystems using the RSI financial indicator and neural networks.

Proceedings of: 11th International Workshop on Knowledge Management and Acquisition for Smart Systems and Services (PKAW 2010), 20 August-3 September 2010, Daegu (Korea)Trading and Stock Behavioral Analysis Systems require efficient Artificial Intelligence techniques for analyzing Large Financial Datasets (LFD) and have become in the current economic landscape a significant challenge for multi-disciplinary research. Particularly, Trading-oriented Decision Support Systems based on the Chartist or Technical Analysis Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) have been published and used worldwide. However, its combination with Neural Networks as a branch of computational intelligence which can outperform previous results remain a relevant approach which has not deserved enough attention. In this paper, we present the Chartist Analysis Platform for Trading (CAST, in short) platform, a proof-of-concept architecture and implementation of a Trading Decision Support System based on the RSI and Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNN). CAST provides a set of relatively more accurate financial decisions yielded by the combination of Artificial Intelligence techniques to the RSI calculation and a more precise and improved upshot obtained from feed-forward algorithms application to stock value datasets.This work is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Tourism, and Commerce under the EUREKA project SITIO (TSI-020400-2009-148), SONAR2 (TSI-020100-2008-665 and GO2 (TSI-020400-2009-127). Furthermore, this work is supported by the General Council of Superior Technological Education of Mexico (DGEST). Additionally, this work is sponsored by the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT) and the Public Education Secretary (SEP) through PROMEP.Publicad

Hepatic circadian clock oscillators and nuclear receptors integrate microbiome-derived signals.

The liver is a key organ of metabolic homeostasis with functions that oscillate in response to food intake. Although liver and gut microbiome crosstalk has been reported, microbiome-mediated effects on peripheral circadian clocks and their output genes are less well known. Here, we report that germ-free (GF) mice display altered daily oscillation of clock gene expression with a concomitant change in the expression of clock output regulators. Mice exposed to microbes typically exhibit characterized activities of nuclear receptors, some of which (PPARα, LXRβ) regulate specific liver gene expression networks, but these activities are profoundly changed in GF mice. These alterations in microbiome-sensitive gene expression patterns are associated with daily alterations in lipid, glucose, and xenobiotic metabolism, protein turnover, and redox balance, as revealed by hepatic metabolome analyses. Moreover, at the systemic level, daily changes in the abundance of biomarkers such as HDL cholesterol, free fatty acids, FGF21, bilirubin, and lactate depend on the microbiome. Altogether, our results indicate that the microbiome is required for integration of liver clock oscillations that tune output activators and their effectors, thereby regulating metabolic gene expression for optimal liver function