Modelling the Proportion of Influenza Infections within Households during Pandemic and Non-Pandemic Years

Background: The key epidemiological difference between pandemic and seasonal influenza is that the population is largely susceptible during a pandemic, whereas, during non-pandemic seasons a level of immunity exists. The population-level efficacy of household-based mitigation strategies depends on the proportion of infections that occur within households. In general, mitigation measures such as isolation and quarantine are more effective at the population level if the proportion of household transmission is low. Methods/Results: We calculated the proportion of infections within households during pandemic years compared with non-pandemic years using a deterministic model of household transmission in which all combinations of household size and individual infection states were enumerated explicitly. We found that the proportion of infections that occur within households was only partially influenced by the hazard h of infection within household relative to the hazard of infection outside the household, especially for small basic reproductive numbers. During pandemics, the number of within-household infections was lower than one might expect for a given h because many of the susceptible individuals were infected from the community and the number of susceptible individuals within household was thus depleted rapidly. In addition, we found that for the value of h at which 30% of infections occur within households during non-pandemic years, a similar 31% of infections occur within households during pandemic years. Interpretation: We suggest that a trade off between the community force of infection and the number of susceptible individuals in a household explains an apparent invariance in the proportion of infections that occur in households in our model. During a pandemic, although there are more susceptible individuals in a household, the community force of infection is very high. However, during non-pandemic years, the force of infection is much lower but there are fewer susceptible individuals within the household. © 2011 Kwok et al.published_or_final_versio

Elimination, reversal, and directional bias of optical diffraction

We experimentally demonstrate the manipulation of optical diffraction, utilizing the atomic thermal motion in a hot vapor medium of electromagnetically-induced transparency (EIT). By properly tuning the EIT parameters, the refraction induced by the atomic motion may completely counterbalance the paraxial free-space diffraction and by that eliminates the effect of diffraction for arbitrary images. By further manipulation, the diffraction can be doubled, biased asymmetrically to induced deflection, or even reversed. The latter allows an experimental implementation of an analogy to a negative-index lens

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes

Polymerase delta-interacting protein 38 (PDIP38) modulates the stability and activity of the mitochondrial AAA+ protease CLPXP

Over a decade ago Polymerase δ interacting protein of 38 kDa (PDIP38) was proposed to play a role in DNA repair. Since this time, both the physiological function and subcellular location of PDIP38 has remained ambiguous and our present understanding of PDIP38 function has been hampered by a lack of detailed biochemical and structural studies. Here we show, that human PDIP38 is directed to the mitochondrion in a membrane potential dependent manner, where it resides in the matrix compartment, together with its partner protein CLPX. Our structural analysis revealed that PDIP38 is composed of two conserved domains separated by an α/β linker region. The N-terminal (YccV-like) domain of PDIP38 forms an SH3-like β-barrel, which interacts specifically with CLPX, via the adaptor docking loop within the N-terminal Zinc binding domain of CLPX. In contrast, the C-terminal (DUF525) domain forms an immunoglobin-like β-sandwich fold, which contains a highly conserved putative substrate binding pocket. Importantly, PDIP38 modulates the substrate specificity of CLPX and protects CLPX from LONM-mediated degradation, which stabilises the cellular levels of CLPX. Collectively, our findings shed new light on the mechanism and function of mitochondrial PDIP38, demonstrating that PDIP38 is a bona fide adaptor protein for the mitochondrial protease, CLPXP

Metapopulation Dynamics Enable Persistence of Influenza A, Including A/H5N1, in Poultry

Thanks to K. Sturm-Ramirez, C. Jessup, J. Rosenthal and the staff of EcoHealth Alliance for feedback. Disclaimer: The contents are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.Conceived and designed the experiments: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB PD. Performed the experiments: PRH. Analyzed the data: PRH. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB JHJ PD. Wrote the paper: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB JHJ PD.Highly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 has persistently but sporadically caused human illness and death since 1997. Yet it is still unclear how this pathogen is able to persist globally. While wild birds seem to be a genetic reservoir for influenza A, they do not seem to be the main source of human illness. Here, we highlight the role that domestic poultry may play in maintaining A/H5N1 globally, using theoretical models of spatial population structure in poultry populations. We find that a metapopulation of moderately sized poultry flocks can sustain the pathogen in a finite poultry population for over two years. Our results suggest that it is possible that moderately intensive backyard farms could sustain the pathogen indefinitely in real systems. This fits a pattern that has been observed from many empirical systems. Rather than just employing standard culling procedures to control the disease, our model suggests ways that poultry production systems may be modified.Yeshttp://www.plosone.org/static/editorial#pee

Development and psychometric validation of the novel Glucose Monitoring Experiences Questionnaire (GME-Q) among adults with type 1 diabetes.

Background Glucose monitoring is an essential aspect of self-care for people with type 1 diabetes. With technologies developing rapidly, valid assessment of user experiences and satisfaction is needed. Our aim was to develop a novel measure: the Glucose Monitoring Experiences Questionnaire (GME-Q). Methods Questionnaire design was informed by exploratory and cognitive debriefing interviews. The GME-Q was included in a large online survey enabling psychometric validation. Results The interview sample included 17 adults (aged (mean±SD) 46±11 years, 53% women) with type 1 diabetes duration of 26±14 years. The proposed conceptual framework included three domains: \u27Effectiveness\u27, \u27Intrusiveness\u27 and \u27Convenience\u27, assessed with 25 items plus a single, overview item. The validation sample included 589 adults (aged 44±15 years; 64% women) with type 1 diabetes (duration: 22±14 years, self-monitoring blood glucose (SMBG) using finger-prick devices: median [IQR] 6 [4,7)] daily checks). Questionnaire acceptability was indicated: 98% (n=578) completion rate. After deleting three redundant items, principal components analysis supported a 22-item questionnaire with three domains (\u27Effectiveness\u27 (9 items); \u27Intrusiveness\u27 (6 items); \u27Convenience\u27 (7 items)), accounting for 55% of variance, with good internal consistency reliability (α=0.83-0.88). Subscales correlated significantly (rs=0.44-0.66,