Ice thickness and volume changes across the Southern Alps, New Zealand, from the little ice age to present

Rapid changes observed today in mountain glaciers need to be put into a longer-term context to understand global sea-level contributions, regional climate-glacier systems and local landscape evolution. In this study we determined volume changes for 400 mountain glaciers across the Southern Alps, New Zealand for three time periods; pre-industrial “Little Ice Age (LIA)” to 1978, 1978 to 2009 and 2009 to 2019. At least 60 km3 ± 12 km3 or between 41 and 62% of the LIA total ice volume has been lost. The rate of mass loss has nearly doubled from − 0.4 m w.e year−1 during 1,600 to 1978 to − 0.7 m w.e year−1 at present. In comparison Patagonia has lost just 11% of it’s LIA volume. Glacier ice in the Southern Alps has become restricted to higher elevations and to large debris-covered ablation tongues terminating in lakes. The accelerating rate of ice loss reflects regional-specific climate conditions and suggests that peak glacial meltwater production is imminent if not already passed, which has profound implications for water resources and riverine habitats

Coincident evolution of glaciers and ice-marginal proglacial lakes across the Southern Alps, New Zealand: Past, present and future

Global glacier mass loss is causing expansion of proglacial landscapes and producing meltwater that can become impounded as lakes within natural topographic depressions or ‘overdeepenings’. It is important to understand the evolution of these proglacial landscapes for water resources, natural hazards and ecosystem services. In this study we (i) overview contemporary loss of glacier ice across the Southern Alps of New Zealand, (ii) analyse ice-marginal lake development since the 1980s, (iii) utilise modelled glacier ice thickness to suggest the position and size of future lakes, and (iv) employ a large-scale glacier evolution model to suggest the timing of future lake formation and future lake expansion rate. In recent decades, hundreds of Southern Alps glaciers have been lost and those remaining have fragmented both by separation of tributaries and by detachment of ablation zones. Glaciers with ice-contact margins in proglacial lakes (n > 0.1 km2 = 20 in 2020) have experienced the greatest terminus retreat and typically twice as negative mass balance compared to similar-sized land-terminating glaciers. Our analysis indicates a positive relationship between mean glacier mass balance and rate of lake growth (R2 = 0.34) and also with length of an ice-contact lake boundary (R2 = 0.44). We project sustained and relatively homogenous glacier volume loss for east-draining basins but in contrast a heterogeneous pattern of volume loss for west-draining basins. Our model results show that ice-marginal lakes will increase in combined size by ~150% towards 2050 and then decrease to 2100 as glaciers disconnect from them. Overall, our findings should inform (i) glacier evolution models into which ice-marginal lake effects need incorporating, (ii) studies of rapid landscape evolution and especially of meltwater and sediment delivery, and (iii) considerations of future meltwater supply and water quality

Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions

The stationarity of relationships between local and remote climates is a necessary, yet implicit, assumption underlying many paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the assumption is tenuous for many seasonal relationships between interannual variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM) and Australasian precipitation and mean temperatures. Nonstationary statistical relationships between local and remote climates on the 31–71-yr time scale, defined as a change in their strength and/or phase outside that expected from local climate noise, are detected on near-centennial time scales from instrumental data, climate model simulations, and paleoclimate proxies.The relationships between ENSO and SAM and Australasian precipitation were nonstationary at 21%–37% of Australasian stations from 1900 to 2009 and strongly covaried, suggesting common modulation. Control simulations from three coupled climate models produce ENSO-like and SAM-like patterns of variability, but differ in detail to the observed patterns in Australasia. However, the model teleconnections also display nonstationarity, in some cases for over 50% of the domain. Therefore, nonstationary local–remote climatic relationships are inherent in environments regulated by internal variability. The assessments using paleoclimate reconstructions are not robust because of extraneous noise associated with the paleoclimate proxies.Instrumental records provide the only means of calibrating and evaluating regional paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the length of Australasian instrumental observations may be too short to capture the near-centennial-scale variations in local–remote climatic relationships, potentially compromising these reconstructions. The uncertainty surrounding nonstationary teleconnections must be acknowledged and quantified. This should include interpreting nonstationarities in paleoclimate reconstructions using physically based frameworks

Progress in refining the global radiocarbon calibration curve using New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) tree-ring series from Oxygen Isotope Stage 3

Quaternary Geochronology, 27 (2015) 158-163. doi:10.1016/j.quageo.2015.02.02

Advances and limitations in establishing a contiguous high-resolution atmospheric radiocarbon record derived from subfossil kauri tree rings for the interval 60–27 cal kyr BP

Radiocarbon dating is the most widely applied and reliable dating technique for providing chronological control during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; ∼60–27 cal kyr BP). Past variations in the atmospheric concentration of radiocarbon mean a calibration curve is required. IntCal20 and SHCal20 calibration curves covering MIS3 are presently largely based on non-atmospheric records which, in combination with larger radiocarbon (14C) dating uncertainties, results in significant smoothing and reduced resolution in calibration curve structure. Floating tree ring radiocarbon chronologies that are wiggle-matched to other palaeo records (particularly to Hulu Cave speleothems) have the potential to provide detailed structure to the MIS3 portion of extant calibration curves. New Zealand subfossil kauri (Agathis australis) trees are long-lived and are useful for constructing temporally-floating MIS3 atmospheric radiocarbon datasets. This paper presents extant and emerging data from several important Northland subfossil kauri locations (Omaha, Basin Road, Waipu, Finlayson Farms, Mangawhai). We show the span of seven floating MIS3 kauri sequences (individual trees and chronologies) from which sequential radiocarbon series covering a total of 7556 years is now in development (representing 23% of the period 60–27 cal kyr BP). We also report radiocarbon dates for an additional 34 ancient kauri from MIS3 that can provide additional coverage. After these floating subfossil wood sequences have been produced, close to 40% of MIS3 (12,420 years) will be covered by contiguous subfossil kauri radiocarbon measurements. Based on our findings, we discuss the prospects and limitations for obtaining a highly resolved and precise atmospheric radiocarbon calibration curve comprehensively covering MIS3 using subfossil kauri

The scientific value and potential of New Zealand swamp kauri

New Zealand swamp kauri (Agathis australis) are relic trees that have been buried and preserved in anoxic bog environments of northern New Zealand for centuries through to hundreds of millennia. Kauri are massive in proportion to other native New Zealand trees and they can attain ages greater than 1000 years. The export market for swamp (subfossil) kauri has recently been driven by demand for a high-value workable timber, but there are concerns about the sustainability of the remaining resource, a situation exacerbated in recent years by the rapid extraction of wood. Economic exploitation of swamp kauri presents several unique opportunities for Quaternary science, however the scientific value of this wood is not well understood by the wider research community and public. Here, we summarise the history of scientific research on swamp kauri, and explore the considerable potential of this unique resource. Swamp kauri tree-ring chronologies are temporally unique, and secondary analyses (such as radiocarbon and isotopic analyses) have value for improving our understanding of Earth's recent geologic history and pre-instrumental climate history. Swamp kauri deposits that span the last interglacial-glacial cycle show potential to yield “ultra-long” multi-millennia tree-ring chronologies, and composite records spanning large parts of MIS3 (and most of the Holocene) may be possible. High-precision radiocarbon dating of swamp kauri chronologies can improve the resolution of the global radiocarbon calibration curve, while testing age modelling and chronologic alignment of other independent long-term high-resolution proxy records. Swamp kauri also has the potential to facilitate absolute dating and verification of cosmogenic events found in long Northern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. Future efforts to conserve these identified values requires scientists to work closely with swamp kauri industry operators, resource consent authorities, and export regulators to mitigate potential losses to science as this precious material is progressively extracted from the ground and utilized

Multi-centennial tree-ring record of ENSO-related activity in New Zealand

C1 - Journal Articles Referee