Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa

Background Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. Methods We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and diagnostic testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R e ) of 1.5 and 1.2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <US$1,290/year-of-life saved (YLS) to be cost-effective. Findings With R e 1.5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths and lowest costs over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS reduced mortality by 76$350/YLS). HT+CT+IC+MS+QC provided the greatest reduction in mortality, but increased costs by 95% compared with HT+CT+IC+MS and was not cost-effective (ICER $8,000/YLS). With R e 1.2, HT+CT+IC+MS was the least costly strategy, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was not cost-effective (ICER$294,320/YLS). Interpretation In South Africa, a strategy of household contact tracing, isolation, and mass symptom screening would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. Adding quarantine centres for COVID-19 contacts is not cost-effective

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background: Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods: We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (Re) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an Re of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (Re values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections. Findings: When Re was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94$340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When Re was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which Re was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced. Interpretation: In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations

High In Situ Repeatability of Behaviour Indicates Animal Personality in the Beadlet Anemone Actinia equina (Cnidaria)

‘Animal personality’ means that individuals differ from one another in either single behaviours or suites of related behaviours in a way that is consistent over time. It is usually assumed that such consistent individual differences in behaviour are driven by variation in how individuals respond to information about their environment, rather than by differences in external factors such as variation in microhabitat. Since behavioural variation is ubiquitous in nature we might expect ‘animal personality’ to be present in diverse taxa, including animals with relatively simple nervous systems. We investigated in situ startle responses in a sea anemone, Actinia equina, to determine whether personalities might be present in this example of an animal with a simple nervous system. We found very high levels of repeatability among individuals that were re-identified in the same locations over a three week sampling period. In a subset of the data, where we used tide-pool temperature measurements to control for a key element of variation in microhabitat, these high levels of repeatability remained. Although a range of other consistent differences in micro-habitat features could have contributed to consistent differences between the behaviour of individuals, these data suggest the presence of animal personality in A. equina. Rather than being restricted to certain groups, personality may be a general feature of animals and may be particularly pronounced in species with simple nervous systems

Clinical predictors of inflammatory bowel disease in a genetically well-defined Caucasian population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), the two main types of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), are multifactorial conditions of unknown etiology. The objective of this study is to examine the combined gene-environment interactions influencing IBD susceptibility in a well-defined Caucasian cohort in rural mid-America.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients were diagnosed to have CD or UC using conventional radiologic, endoscopic, and/or histopathologic findings. Histological diagnosis was made by a single specialist gastrointestinal pathologist with a particular interest in IBD. Information regarding cigarette smoke exposure was obtained by administration of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (BRFSS) to all patients. Genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral blood leukocytes, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and genotyping were performed for 11 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP) in <it>NOD2</it>, <it>IL23r</it>, <it>OCTN1 </it>genes along with <it>IGR</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our cohort consists of 1196 patients: 435 controls, 485 CD patients, and 276 UC patients. Only patients with genotype data for at least 7 of 11 SNPs were included in our data analysis. The control groups for all 11 SNPs were in Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium. In genotype-association SNP analysis, all <it>NOD2 </it>SNPs (rs5743293, rs2066844, rs2066845) and the <it>IL23r </it>SNP (rs11465804) showed a significant association to IBD (<it>p </it>< 0.03). A multiple gene-interaction analysis showed an association between <it>NOD2 </it>and <it>IL23r </it>with UC (<it>p </it>= 0.04). There were no associations between any <it>OCTN1 </it>and <it>IGR </it>SNPs and IBD in this cohort. A multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that female gender, "current" or "former" smoking status, family history of IBD, and <it>NOD2 </it>SNP minor alleles were associated with CD.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>IBD remains to be challenging to properly diagnose, characterize, and treat. Our study proposes a combined genetic, phenotypic, and environmental approach in an attempt to better understand IBD. Previously demonstrated associations between OCTN1 and IGR and IBD were not confirmed.</p

Boldness by habituation and social interactions: a model

Most studies of animal personality attribute personality to genetic traits. But a recent study by Magnhagen and Staffan (Behav Ecol Sociobiol 57:295–303, 2005) on young perch in small groups showed that boldness, a central personality trait, is also shaped by social interactions and by previous experience. The authors measured boldness by recording the duration that an individual spent near a predator and the speed with which it fed there. They found that duration near the predator increased over time and was higher the higher the average boldness of other group members. In addition, the feeding rate of shy individuals was reduced if other members of the same group were bold. The authors supposed that these behavioral dynamics were caused by genetic differences, social interactions, and habituation to the predator. However, they did not quantify exactly how this could happen. In the present study, we therefore use an agent-based model to investigate whether these three factors may explain the empirical findings. We choose an agent-based model because this type of model is especially suited to study the relation between behavior at an individual level and behavioral dynamics at a group level. In our model, individuals were either hiding in vegetation or feeding near a predator, whereby their behavior was affected by habituation and by two social mechanisms: social facilitation to approach the predator and competition over food. We show that even if we start the model with identical individuals, these three mechanisms were sufficient to reproduce the behavioral dynamics of the empirical study, including the consistent differences among individuals. Moreover, if we start the model with individuals that already differ in boldness, the behavioral dynamics produced remained the same. Our results indicate the importance of previous experience and social interactions when studying animal personality empirically

Personality May Confound Common Measures of Mate-Choice

The measurement of female mating preferences is central to the study of the evolution of male ornaments. Although several different methods have been developed to assess sexual preference in some standardized way, the most commonly used procedure consists of recording female spatial association with different males presented simultaneously. Sexual preference is then inferred from time spent in front of each male. However, the extent to which the measurement of female mate-choice is related to exploration tendencies has not been addressed so far. In the present study we assessed the influence of variation in exploration tendencies, a trait closely associated to global personality, on the measurement of female mating preference in the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) using the widely used four-chamber choice-apparatus. The number of movements performed within both exploration and mate-choice apparatus was consistent within and across the two contexts. In addition, personality explained variation in selectivity, preference strength and consistency. High-exploratory females showed lower selectivity, lower preference scores and displayed more consistent preference scores. Our results suggest that variation in personality may affect the measurement of female mating preference and may contribute to explain existing inconsistencies across studies

Both male and female identity influence variation in male signalling effort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Male sexual displays play an important role in sexual selection by affecting reproductive success. However, for such displays to be useful for female mate choice, courtship should vary more among than within individual males. In this regard, a potentially important source of within male variation is adjustment of male courtship effort in response to female traits. Accordingly, we set out to dissect sources of variation in male courtship effort in a fish, the desert goby (<it>Chlamydogobius eremius</it>). We did so by designing an experiment that allowed simultaneous estimation of within and between male variation in courtship, while also assessing the importance of the males and females as sources of courtship variation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although males adjusted their courtship depending on the identity of the female (a potentially important source of within-male variation), among-male differences were considerably greater. In addition, male courtship effort towards a pair of females was highly repeatable over a short time frame.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Despite the plasticity in male courtship effort, courtship displays had the potential to reliably convey information about the male to mate-searching females. Our experiment therefore underscores the importance of addressing the different sources contributing to variation in the expression of sexually-selected traits.</p

Postcopulatory Sexual Selection Is Associated with Reduced Variation in Sperm Morphology

The evolutionary role of postcopulatory sexual selection in shaping male reproductive traits, including sperm morphology, is well documented in several taxa. However, previous studies have focused almost exclusively on the influence of sperm competition on variation among species. In this study we tested the hypothesis that intraspecific variation in sperm morphology is driven by the level of postcopulatory sexual selection in passerine birds.Using two proxy measures of sperm competition level, (i) relative testes size and (ii) extrapair paternity level, we found strong evidence that intermale variation in sperm morphology is negatively associated with the degree of postcopulatory sexual selection, independently of phylogeny.Our results show that the role of postcopulatory sexual selection in the evolution of sperm morphology extends to an intraspecific level, reducing the variation towards what might be a species-specific 'optimum' sperm phenotype. This finding suggests that while postcopulatory selection is generally directional (e.g., favouring longer sperm) across avian species, it also acts as a stabilising evolutionary force within species under intense selection, resulting in reduced variation in sperm morphology traits. We discuss some potential evolutionary mechanisms for this pattern

Haste Makes Waste: Accelerated Molt Adversely Affects the Expression of Melanin-Based and Depigmented Plumage Ornaments in House Sparrows

. Costly life-history events are adaptively separated in time, thus, when reproduction is extended, the time available for molt is curtailed and, in turn, molt rate is accelerated.We experimentally accelerated the molt rate by shortening the photoperiod in order to test whether this environmental constraint is mirrored in the expression of plumage ornaments. Sparrows which had undergone an accelerated molt developed smaller badges and less bright wing-bars compared to conspecifics that molted at a natural rate being held at natural-like photoperiod. There was no difference in the brightness of the badge or the size of the wing-bar.These results indicate that the time available for molt and thus the rate at which molt occurs may constrain the expression of melanin-based and depigmented plumage advertisements. This mechanism may lead to the evolution of honest signaling if the onset of molt is condition-dependent through the timing of and/or trade-off between breeding and molt

Carotenoid-Based Colours Reflect the Stress Response in the Common Lizard

Under chronic stress, carotenoid-based colouration has often been shown to fade. However, the ecological and physiological mechanisms that govern colouration still remain largely unknown. Colour changes may be directly induced by the stressor (for example through reduced carotenoid intake) or due to the activation of the physiological stress response (PSR, e.g. due to increased blood corticosterone concentrations). Here, we tested whether blood corticosterone concentration affected carotenoid-based colouration, and whether a trade-off between colouration and PSR existed. Using the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara), we correlatively and experimentally showed that elevated blood corticosterone levels are associated with increased redness of the lizard's belly. In this study, the effects of corticosterone did not depend on carotenoid ingestion, indicating the absence of a trade-off between colouration and PSR for carotenoids. While carotenoid ingestion increased blood carotenoid concentration, colouration was not modified. This suggests that carotenoid-based colouration of common lizards is not severely limited by dietary carotenoid intake. Together with earlier studies, these findings suggest that the common lizard's carotenoid-based colouration may be a composite trait, consisting of fixed (e.g. genetic) and environmentally elements, the latter reflecting the lizard's PSR