Statistical process control of mortality series in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database: implications of the data generating process

for the ANZICS Centre for Outcome and Resource Evaluation (CORE) of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS)BACKGROUND Statistical process control (SPC), an industrial sphere initiative, has recently been applied in health care and public health surveillance. SPC methods assume independent observations and process autocorrelation has been associated with increase in false alarm frequency. METHODS Monthly mean raw mortality (at hospital discharge) time series, 1995–2009, at the individual Intensive Care unit (ICU) level, were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Evidence for series (i) autocorrelation and seasonality was demonstrated using (partial)-autocorrelation ((P)ACF) function displays and classical series decomposition and (ii) “in-control” status was sought using risk-adjusted (RA) exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control limits (3 sigma). Risk adjustment was achieved using a random coefficient (intercept as ICU site and slope as APACHE III score) logistic regression model, generating an expected mortality series. Application of time-series to an exemplar complete ICU series (1995-(end)2009) was via Box-Jenkins methodology: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and (G)ARCH ((Generalised) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models, the latter addressing volatility of the series variance. RESULTS The overall data set, 1995-2009, consisted of 491324 records from 137 ICU sites; average raw mortality was 14.07%; average(SD) raw and expected mortalities ranged from 0.012(0.113) and 0.013(0.045) to 0.296(0.457) and 0.278(0.247) respectively. For the raw mortality series: 71 sites had continuous data for assessment up to or beyond lag ₄₀ and 35% had autocorrelation through to lag ₄₀; and of 36 sites with continuous data for ≥ 72 months, all demonstrated marked seasonality. Similar numbers and percentages were seen with the expected series. Out-of-control signalling was evident for the raw mortality series with respect to RA-EWMA control limits; a seasonal ARMA model, with GARCH effects, displayed white-noise residuals which were in-control with respect to EWMA control limits and one-step prediction error limits (3SE). The expected series was modelled with a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model. CONCLUSIONS The data generating process of monthly raw mortality series at the ICU level displayed autocorrelation, seasonality and volatility. False-positive signalling of the raw mortality series was evident with respect to RA-EWMA control limits. A time series approach using residual control charts resolved these issues.John L Moran, Patricia J Solomo

Potential therapeutic implications of new insights into respiratory syncytial virus disease

Viral bronchiolitis is the most common cause of hospitalization in infants under 6 months of age, and 70% of all cases of bronchiolitis are caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Early RSV infection is associated with respiratory problems such as asthma and wheezing later in life. RSV infection is usually spread by contaminated secretions and infects the upper then lower respiratory tracts. Infected cells release proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines, including IL-1, tumor necrosis factor-α, IL-6, and IL-8. These activate other cells and recruit inflammatory cells, including macrophages, neutrophils, eosinophils, and T lymphocytes, into the airway wall and surrounding tissues. The pattern of cytokine production by T lymphocytes can be biased toward 'T-helper-1' or 'T-helper-2' cytokines, depending on the local immunologic environment, infection history, and host genetics. T-helper-1 responses are generally efficient in antiviral defense, but young infants have an inherent bias toward T-helper-2 responses. The ideal intervention for RSV infection would be preventive, but the options are currently limited. Vaccines based on protein subunits, live attenuated strains of RSV, DNA vaccines, and synthetic peptides are being developed; passive antibody therapy is at present impractical in otherwise healthy children. Effective vaccines for use in neonates continue to be elusive but simply delaying infection beyond the first 6 months of life might reduce the delayed morbidity associated with infantile disease

CD(8+ )T lymphocytes in lung tissue from patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Several studies have implicated a role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of lung damage in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Parenchymal lung damage leads to defects in mechanics and gas exchange and clinically manifests with exertional dyspnea. Investigations of inflammatory cells in IPF have shown that eosinophils, neutrophils and CD(8+ )TLs may be associated with worse prognosis. We wished to investigate by quantitative immunohistochemistry infiltrating macrophages, neutrophils and T lymphocytes (TLs) subpopulations (CD(3+), CD(4+ )and CD(8+)) in lung tissue of patients with IPF and their correlation with lung function indices and grade of dyspnoea. METHODS: Surgical biopsies of 12 patients with IPF were immunohistochemically stained with mouse monoclonal antibodies (anti-CD(68 )for macrophages, anti-elastase for neutrophils, and anti-CD(3), anti-CD(4), anti-CD(8 )for CD(3+)TLs, CD(4+)TLs, and CD(8+)TLs respectively). The number of positively stained cells was determined by observer-interactive computerized image analysis (SAMBA microscopic image processor). Cell numbers were expressed in percentage of immunopositive nuclear surface in relation to the total nuclear surface of infiltrative cells within the tissue (labeling Index). Correlations were performed between cell numbers and physiological indices [FEV(1), FVC, TLC, DLCO, PaO(2), PaCO(2 )and P(A-a)O(2))] as well as dyspnoea scores assessed by the Medical Research Council (MRC) scale. RESULTS: Elastase positive cells accounted for the 7.04% ± 1.1 of total cells, CD(68+ )cells for the 16.6% ± 2, CD(3+ )TLs for the 28.8% ± 7, CD(4+ )TLs for the 14.5 ± 4 and CD(8+ )TLs for the 13.8 ± 4. CD(8+)TLs correlated inversely with FVC % predicted (r(s )= -0.67, p = 0.01), TLC % predicted (r(s )= -0.68, p = 0.01), DLCO % predicted (r(s )= -0.61, p = 0.04), and PaO(2 )(r(s )= -0.60, p = 0.04). Positive correlations were found between CD(8+)TLs and P(A-a)O(2 )(r(s )= 0.65, p = 0.02) and CD(8+)TLs and MRC score (r(s )= 0.63, p = 0.02). Additionally, CD(68+ )cells presented negative correlations with both FVC % predicted (r(s )= -0.80, p = 0.002) and FEV(1 )% predicted (r(s )= -0.68, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: In UIP/IPF tissue infiltrating mononuclear cells and especially CD(8+ )TLs are associated with the grade of dyspnoea and functional parameters of disease severity implicating that they might play a role in its pathogenesis

Eligibility for interventions, co-occurrence and risk factors for unhealthy behaviours in patients consulting for routine primary care: results from the Pre-Empt study

Smoking, excessive drinking, lack of exercise and a poor diet remain key causes of premature morbidity and mortality globally, yet it is not clear what proportion of patients attending for routine primary care are eligible for interventions about these behaviours, the extent to which they co-occur within individuals, and which individuals are at greatest risk for multiple unhealthy behaviours. The aim of the trial was to examine 'intervention eligibility' and co-occurrence of the 'big four' risky health behaviours - lack of exercise, smoking, an unhealthy diet and excessive drinking - in a primary care population. Data were collected from adult patients consulting routinely in general practice across South Wales as part of the Pre-Empt study; a cluster randomised controlled trial. After giving consent, participants completed screening instruments, which included the following to assess eligibility for an intervention based on set thresholds: AUDIT-C (for alcohol), HSI (for smoking), IPAQ (for exercise) and a subset of DINE (for diet). The intervention following screening was based on which combination of risky behaviours the patient had. Descriptive statistics, χ2 tests for association and ordinal regressions were undertaken. Two thousand sixty seven patients were screened: mean age of 48.6 years, 61.9 % female and 42.8 % in a managerial or professional occupation. In terms of numbers of risky behaviours screened eligible for, two was the most common (43.6 %), with diet and exercise (27.2 %) being the most common combination. Insufficient exercise was the most common single risky behaviour (12.0 %). 21.8 % of patients would have been eligible for an intervention for three behaviours and 5.9 % for all four behaviours. Just 4.5 % of patients did not identify any risky behaviours. Women, older age groups and those in managerial or professional occupations were more likely to exhibit all four risky behaviours. Very few patients consulting for routine primary care screen ineligible for interventions about common unhealthy behaviours, and most engage in more than one of the major common unhealthy behaviours. Clinicians should be particularly alert to opportunities to engaging younger, non professional men and those with multi-morbidity about risky health behaviour. ISRCTN22495456. BACKGROUND METHODS RESULTS CONCLUSION TRIAL REGISTRATIO

Alum Adjuvant Enhances Protection against Respiratory Syncytial Virus but Exacerbates Pulmonary Inflammation by Modulating Multiple Innate and Adaptive Immune Cells

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well-known for inducing vaccine-enhanced respiratory disease after vaccination of young children with formalin-inactivated RSV (FI-RSV) in alum formulation. Here, we investigated alum adjuvant effects on protection and disease after FIRSV immunization with or without alum in comparison with live RSV reinfections. Despite viral clearance, live RSV reinfections caused weight loss and substantial pulmonary inflammation probably due to high levels of RSV specific IFN-γ+IL4-, IFN-γ-TNF-α+, IFN-γ+ TNF-α- effector CD4 and CD8 T cells. Alum adjuvant significantly improved protection as evidenced by effective viral clearance compared to unadjuvanted FI-RSV. However, in contrast to unadjuvanted FI-RSV, alum-adjuvanted FI-RSV (FI-RSV-A) induced severe vaccine- enhanced RSV disease including weight loss, eosinophilia, and lung histopathology. Alum adjuvant in the FI-RSV-A was found to be mainly responsible for inducing high levels of RSV-specific IFN-γ-IL4+, IFN-γ-TNF-α+ CD4+ T cells, and proinflammatory cytokines IL-6 and IL-4 as well as B220+ plasmacytoid and CD4+ dendritic cells, and inhibiting the induction of IFN-γ+CD8 T cells. This study suggests that alum adjuvant in FI-RSV vaccines increases immunogenicity and viral clearance but also induces atypical T helper CD4+ T cells and multiple inflammatory dendritic cell subsets responsible for vaccine-enhanced severe RSV disease

H2A.Z Acidic Patch Couples Chromatin Dynamics to Regulation of Gene Expression Programs during ESC Differentiation

The histone H2A variant H2A.Z is essential for embryonic development and for proper control of developmental gene expression programs in embryonic stem cells (ESCs). Divergent regions of amino acid sequence of H2A.Z likely determine its functional specialization compared to core histone H2A. For example, H2A.Z contains three divergent residues in the essential C-terminal acidic patch that reside on the surface of the histone octamer as an uninterrupted acidic patch domain; however, we know little about how these residues contribute to chromatin structure and function. Here, we show that the divergent amino acids Gly92, Asp97, and Ser98 in the H2A.Z C-terminal acidic patch (H2A.Z[superscript AP3]) are critical for lineage commitment during ESC differentiation. H2A.Z is enriched at most H3K4me3 promoters in ESCs including poised, bivalent promoters that harbor both activating and repressive marks, H3K4me3 and H3K27me3 respectively. We found that while H2A.Z[superscript AP3] interacted with its deposition complex and displayed a highly similar distribution pattern compared to wild-type H2A.Z, its enrichment levels were reduced at target promoters. Further analysis revealed that H2A.Z[superscript AP3] was less tightly associated with chromatin, suggesting that the mutant is more dynamic. Notably, bivalent genes in H2A.Z[superscript AP3] ESCs displayed significant changes in expression compared to active genes. Moreover, bivalent genes in H2A.Z[superscript AP3] ESCs gained H3.3, a variant associated with higher nucleosome turnover, compared to wild-type H2A.Z. We next performed single cell imaging to measure H2A.Z dynamics. We found that H2A.Z[superscript AP3] displayed higher mobility in chromatin compared to wild-type H2A.Z by fluorescent recovery after photobleaching (FRAP). Moreover, ESCs treated with the transcriptional inhibitor flavopiridol resulted in a decrease in the H2A.Z[superscript AP3] mobile fraction and an increase in its occupancy at target genes indicating that the mutant can be properly incorporated into chromatin. Collectively, our work suggests that the divergent residues in the H2A.Z acidic patch comprise a unique domain that couples control of chromatin dynamics to the regulation of developmental gene expression patterns during lineage commitment.Massachusetts Life Sciences Center (David H. Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research at MIT Core Grant P30-CA14051)National Science Foundation (U.S.). Emergent Behaviors of Integrated Cellular Systems (Grant CBET-0939511)MIT Faculty Start-up FundMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Computational and Systems Biology Initiative (Merck & Co. Postdoctoral Fellowship

Immunoprotectivity of HLA-A2 CTL Peptides Derived from Respiratory Syncytial Virus Fusion Protein in HLA-A2 Transgenic Mouse

Identification of HLA-restricted CD8+ T cell epitopes is important to study RSV-induced immunity and illness. We algorithmically analyzed the sequence of the fusion protein (F) of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and generated synthetic peptides that can potentially bind to HLA-A*0201. Four out of the twenty-five 9-mer peptides tested: peptides 3 (F33–41), 13 (F214–222), 14 (F273–281), and 23 (F559–567), were found to bind to HLA-A*0201 with moderate to high affinity and were capable of inducing IFN-γ and IL-2 secretion in lymphocytes from HLA-A*0201 transgenic (HLA-Tg) mice pre-immunized with RSV or recombinant adenovirus expressing RSV F. HLA-Tg mice were immunized with these four peptides and were found to induce both Th1 and CD8+ T cell responses in in vitro secondary recall. Effector responses induced by these peptides were observed to confer differential protection against live RSV challenge. These peptides also caused better recovery of body weight loss induced by RSV. A significant reduction of lung viral load was observed in mice immunized with peptide 23, which appeared to enhance the levels of inflammatory chemokines (CCL17, CCL22, and IL-18) but did not increase eosinophil infiltration in the lungs. Whereas, significant reduction of infiltrated eosinophils induced by RSV infection was found in mice pre-immunized with peptide 13. Our results suggest that HLA-A2-restricted epitopes of RSV F protein could be useful for the development of epitope-based RSV vaccine