A prediction rule to stratify mortality risk of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis

Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8-7.9), age >= 50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7-4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.44.4), >= 1 significant comorbidity-HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease-(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-3.8), and hemoglobin = 6) mortality risk. The mortality associated with each group was 2.9%, 22.9% and 53.9%, respectively. The model performed equally well in the validation cohort. We provide a new, easy-to-use clinical scoring system to identify PTB patients with high-mortality risk in settings with good healthcare access, helping clinicians to decide which patients are in need of closer medical care during treatment.This work was supported by Fundacao Amelia de Mello/Jose de Mello Saude and Sociedade Portuguesa de Pneumologia (SPP). This work was developed under the scope of the project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000013, supported by the Northern Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the Portugal 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER). NSO is a FCT (Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) investigator. MS is an Associate FCT Investigator. The fundershad no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Correction: A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0162797.]

Test characteristics with different prediction scores for mortality in the derivation cohort of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.

<p>Test characteristics with different prediction scores for mortality in the derivation cohort of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.</p

Multivariable logistic regression analysis for deriving tuberculosis risk score for death.

<p>Multivariable logistic regression analysis for deriving tuberculosis risk score for death.</p

Study population characteristics and comparison between survivor and fatality groups.

<p>Continuous variables are presented as mean±SD or median (25th–75th percentile). The proportions in this table reflect the number of patients with each finding divided by the total number of patients for whom data were available.</p

Flow chart for the selection of the participating patients, according to the STROBE guidelines.

<p>HSJ—Hospital São João, Porto, Portugal; CDC—Chest Disease Centre (ambulatory care), Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal.</p